First Inning Runs picks based on historical outcomes stratified by the
full game O/U, the only variable that is highly correlated to the
outcome of this prop.
This season 309-281, +35.4 units, last season 180-170, +37.05 units Current YTD YES%=53.1%
Phi/Was NO -135, 2 units (must bet -158 or better) Mia/Atl YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better) SD/Cin YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better) Det/Bos YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -104 or better) Pit/CHN YES +105, 1 unit (must bet -101 or better) Hou/Mil YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better) TB/Oak YES +115, 1 unit (must bet +111 or better) AZ/LA YES +110, 2 units (must bet -101 or better) Tor/Sea YES +115, 1 unit (must bet +111 or better) NYM/SF NO -135, 2 units (must bet -158 or better)
First Inning Runs picks based on historical outcomes stratified by the
full game O/U, the only variable that is highly correlated to the
outcome of this prop.
This season 309-281, +35.4 units, last season 180-170, +37.05 units Current YTD YES%=53.1%
Phi/Was NO -135, 2 units (must bet -158 or better) Mia/Atl YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better) SD/Cin YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better) Det/Bos YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -104 or better) Pit/CHN YES +105, 1 unit (must bet -101 or better) Hou/Mil YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better) TB/Oak YES +115, 1 unit (must bet +111 or better) AZ/LA YES +110, 2 units (must bet -101 or better) Tor/Sea YES +115, 1 unit (must bet +111 or better) NYM/SF NO -135, 2 units (must bet -158 or better)
Good luck! You crushed it yesterday....only missed 1!
Today i think best value is TB/OAK with O/U at 7. Im seeing +120 and +125. im with you on this one. 5 or 6 factors point to YES and only 2 point to NO. I think this is mis-priced just like the ARI/LAD game yesterday which could have been gotten at +120 in the AM before ending at 100 at all the offshore shops at gametime.
Also like CLE and the CHW games although theyre a tad pricey. I may lay the juice if both games drop a bit since hochevar and blackburn are 2 of the worst 1st inning pitchers...hence the juice.
I think -135 is too expensive on the SFG game. Im hedging with a 50/50 position on YES +140 and NO -135 and taking the 7cents of value.
Good luck! You crushed it yesterday....only missed 1!
Today i think best value is TB/OAK with O/U at 7. Im seeing +120 and +125. im with you on this one. 5 or 6 factors point to YES and only 2 point to NO. I think this is mis-priced just like the ARI/LAD game yesterday which could have been gotten at +120 in the AM before ending at 100 at all the offshore shops at gametime.
Also like CLE and the CHW games although theyre a tad pricey. I may lay the juice if both games drop a bit since hochevar and blackburn are 2 of the worst 1st inning pitchers...hence the juice.
I think -135 is too expensive on the SFG game. Im hedging with a 50/50 position on YES +140 and NO -135 and taking the 7cents of value.
TB/Oak at +120 or +125 is great value. I had to lay off the Cle and CWS games because of the price. Nice going with the arb on the SF game. I look for arb opps any chance I can find them.
TB/Oak at +120 or +125 is great value. I had to lay off the Cle and CWS games because of the price. Nice going with the arb on the SF game. I look for arb opps any chance I can find them.
Thanks. This isnt a pure arb opp; its just positive EV (you can win or lose, but expected value is positive based on finding best value across different books). For every 15 games, theres 3 or 4 positive EV plays. I look at 2 or 3 different books.
For every 45-60 games (assuming 15/day), there are 1 or 2 pure arb plays. thats where ill get +105 on the YES and +100 or +105 on the NO. Happened on saturday with the NYM/ARI game. It was actually +100 YES and +110 on the NO for about 30minutes. So i just kept buying and buying the max until the line changed. And when it went to 100/105, i kept buying until the lines equilibrated. This is pure arb because you have zero risk with either YES or NO.
The bad thing is that with this game, i was leaning towards YES and alas, it ended up a YES. So i didnt win any money that day because YES was +100 the whole time but if it was a NO, i would have had 10% free return on the NO money. But since i had to lay equal money on the YEs at another book, mathematically its 5% return. But its free money!
I actually went 8-0 on that saturday. Best Y/N day ive had. And that was without the benefit of your Y/N lines which i use as a double check. I gave some of it away on sunday however, but made up for the bad sunday with a decent day yesterday. I didnt crush like you did with the 8-1 but i tripled down on the ARI game.
The best is +105 on YES and +105 on NO. Thats no risk/full return arb. Tough to find and the window is short. The key is to maximize the number of outs you have. Im going to open up a pinnacle accoutn since they haVe good lines.
From what you said in the past, in the good old years, these opportunities abounded.
Thanks. This isnt a pure arb opp; its just positive EV (you can win or lose, but expected value is positive based on finding best value across different books). For every 15 games, theres 3 or 4 positive EV plays. I look at 2 or 3 different books.
For every 45-60 games (assuming 15/day), there are 1 or 2 pure arb plays. thats where ill get +105 on the YES and +100 or +105 on the NO. Happened on saturday with the NYM/ARI game. It was actually +100 YES and +110 on the NO for about 30minutes. So i just kept buying and buying the max until the line changed. And when it went to 100/105, i kept buying until the lines equilibrated. This is pure arb because you have zero risk with either YES or NO.
The bad thing is that with this game, i was leaning towards YES and alas, it ended up a YES. So i didnt win any money that day because YES was +100 the whole time but if it was a NO, i would have had 10% free return on the NO money. But since i had to lay equal money on the YEs at another book, mathematically its 5% return. But its free money!
I actually went 8-0 on that saturday. Best Y/N day ive had. And that was without the benefit of your Y/N lines which i use as a double check. I gave some of it away on sunday however, but made up for the bad sunday with a decent day yesterday. I didnt crush like you did with the 8-1 but i tripled down on the ARI game.
The best is +105 on YES and +105 on NO. Thats no risk/full return arb. Tough to find and the window is short. The key is to maximize the number of outs you have. Im going to open up a pinnacle accoutn since they haVe good lines.
From what you said in the past, in the good old years, these opportunities abounded.
Music to my ears. In the past with Neteller, 8 or 9 outs and a wider variance in the lines between the outs for any given game, even with 30 cent lines there were plenty of pure arb and juicy pos EV plays. Matchbook even let me run first inning runs markets for half a season before the action dried up. The profit margins have tightened substantially since then but its still a worthwhile way to make money each season.
Music to my ears. In the past with Neteller, 8 or 9 outs and a wider variance in the lines between the outs for any given game, even with 30 cent lines there were plenty of pure arb and juicy pos EV plays. Matchbook even let me run first inning runs markets for half a season before the action dried up. The profit margins have tightened substantially since then but its still a worthwhile way to make money each season.
8 or 9 outs with 5 games sharing start times...do you have a day job? That sounds like a fulltime job in and of itself!!! ..and with all the juicy arb opps, you probably Quit your day job and did this fulltime from april to september.
Thats the beauty of imperfect information markets. I wish i knew about sportsbetting back then.
Maybe in a few years, there will be 2nd inning YES/NO props. With all this new in-game betting and exotic props, books are finding more creative ways to generate volume.
Lastly, i find some books move their YN lines a LOT before game time and i dont think it has anything to do with the actual game. I think they re-calibrate in order to minimize their risk across the board. In other words, if they lost money on earlier games, theyll try to push the market one way or another with an afternoon game by changing lines. Provides more arb opps right before gametime.
I learn something new everyday and always look forward to your picks. Thanks.
8 or 9 outs with 5 games sharing start times...do you have a day job? That sounds like a fulltime job in and of itself!!! ..and with all the juicy arb opps, you probably Quit your day job and did this fulltime from april to september.
Thats the beauty of imperfect information markets. I wish i knew about sportsbetting back then.
Maybe in a few years, there will be 2nd inning YES/NO props. With all this new in-game betting and exotic props, books are finding more creative ways to generate volume.
Lastly, i find some books move their YN lines a LOT before game time and i dont think it has anything to do with the actual game. I think they re-calibrate in order to minimize their risk across the board. In other words, if they lost money on earlier games, theyll try to push the market one way or another with an afternoon game by changing lines. Provides more arb opps right before gametime.
I learn something new everyday and always look forward to your picks. Thanks.
I did have a day job back then, as I do now, but I was also single back then and had way more time to devout to this.
You're exactly right about imperfect information. Based on how the lines have shifted over the years, I would suspect that 7 years ago, the ratio of YES to NO bettors was easily 1 to 10. I would guess that now they are more like 1 to 3 as more bettors have caught on to the fact that the YES hits more often than the NO. The 1%-2% overlays that qualify as plays for me now wouldn't even qualify for plays back then. My minimum overlay for a play back then was 3% and I was still getting 8-12 plays in a night. And the books were getting away with exposing themselves that much on the YES because there was hardly anyone ever playing the YES and they more than made up for the exposure with all the negative expectation NO action they got.
I don't know if we'll ever see anything like that again.
I did have a day job back then, as I do now, but I was also single back then and had way more time to devout to this.
You're exactly right about imperfect information. Based on how the lines have shifted over the years, I would suspect that 7 years ago, the ratio of YES to NO bettors was easily 1 to 10. I would guess that now they are more like 1 to 3 as more bettors have caught on to the fact that the YES hits more often than the NO. The 1%-2% overlays that qualify as plays for me now wouldn't even qualify for plays back then. My minimum overlay for a play back then was 3% and I was still getting 8-12 plays in a night. And the books were getting away with exposing themselves that much on the YES because there was hardly anyone ever playing the YES and they more than made up for the exposure with all the negative expectation NO action they got.
I don't know if we'll ever see anything like that again.
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