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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Reverse line movement - Day 1
Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Beckwith
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#51
Posted: 7/29/2012 3:48:40 PM
Overslept today. The possibles today were COLO, CHC, TOR, BOS, TB, NYM, SD, HOU, and MIL.
LAD over 6.5, KC under 6, BOS under 9.5, CLE under 9.

Appears that a lot of these are doing quite well, so I'm scared to add some of the later leans.

We will however hit up Bos U9.5-110, LAD O6.5-110, and NYM+102. Leaving out Boston and KC U6 with Will Smith pitching...
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#52
Posted: 7/29/2012 8:41:50 PM
1-1 -0.08 so far. Bos U9.5 1.1 to win 1 pending. We either finish 2-1 +0.92 or 1-2 -1.18.

7-11 -3.54 before today.
If BOS under hits, 9-12 -2.62
If BOS under does not, 8-13 -4.72


Hopefully we'll hit this one and have a profitable day tomorrow.
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#53
Posted: 7/29/2012 8:59:09 PM

Beck,

It's a system thats been proven not to work, I'd find someone (si1ly) has an open model that has done remarkably well even with these tight lines.  You can update or adjust with lineup variations, umpires, weather and line adjustment.  For example a good gambling friend had something like this posted for today's game.  It makes sense... In May, Kershaw closed out at -201 at home against Vogelsong when Kemp was in the lineup and Sandoval was not. In June, Kershaw closed out at -113 on the road against Vogelsong despite not having Kemp and the Giants having Sandoval. Dodgers now also have Hanley. Posey or Belt likely to be subbed by Whiteside.  Oddsmakers stubborn out of the gate with + opening on LA Dodgers.

These were not my words but from a well respected handicapper about today's game.

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#54
Posted: 7/30/2012 6:48:15 PM
LAA/Tex O11 +110 1 to win 1.1
NYM/SFG U6.5 +108 1 to win 1.08
Chicabo Cubs +119 1 to win 1.19
Minnesota Twins +116 1 to win 1.16
Arizona Diamondbacks +113 1 to win 1.13
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-140) 1.40 to win 1


That's it for today. Stayed off of Houston, NYM, SD, and DET. Playing it safe with Baltimore but HolyDiver has a big play on the RL so thought I'd do the same.

Good luck gentlemen.
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#55
Posted: 7/30/2012 9:36:00 PM
If Baltimore can hang on, this could be a great day.
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#56
Posted: 7/30/2012 10:08:31 PM
Adding 1 unit AZ +107 1 to win 1.07. I simply cannot ignore this line movement... it keeps coming so I am forced to add a unit. I wish we had time to see if we go 4-0 to start, but we don't, so we'll take a gamble that we do and add on a unit here!!! GL TO ALL!
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#57
Posted: 7/30/2012 10:36:08 PM
Got the play in with a couple minutes to spare...
LAA over 11 +110 EASY WINNER
BAL+1.5 -140 EASY WINNER
CHICAGO CUBS +119 EASY WINNER

3-0 +3.29 start.


Pending: 4 to win 4.44
Minn 1 to win 1.16
AZ 2 to win 2.20
SFG UNDER 6.5 1 to win 1.08
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#58
Posted: 7/30/2012 10:42:38 PM
looking at a decent day for you. nice job man. not too shabby
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#59
Posted: 7/30/2012 11:06:59 PM
2 winning days in a row. I have yet to see a truly TERRIBLE day with this type of betting. I mean, the public can't win every game... But sometimes we'll get a terrific day. That's what we want. 1 out of 7 of these and we're golden.
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#60
Posted: 7/30/2012 11:22:20 PM
Min+116 1 to win 1.16 WINNER. 4-0 +4.45 start.
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#61
Posted: 7/30/2012 11:45:52 PM
AZ up 7-0. We hit our FIRST EVER 2 unit play in this thread! Yeah, I'm friggin calling it early guys, it's the Dodgers.

5-0 +6.65 start!

Hope we go 6-0 +7.73!
If not, we had a strong day 5-1 +5.65 units!
So... drumroll please.... our overall record after today... will be either 14-13 +3.03 or 15-12 +5.11 units!

We bring our win-loss record, AND our unit count BOTH into the positive! Looking to build on this tomorrow.

I actually could see the Giants game ending 3-2 so don't be surprised if we sweep today.
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#62
Posted: 7/31/2012 2:09:32 PM
Okay, 14-13 +3.03. 5-1 +5.65 yesterday.

Possibles today:
AZ+103
COL+125
TEX-104
PIT/CHC O8
BOS+116
COL+125
SD+151
BAL+157

Maybe more possibles later. Not even touching Houston game.
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#63
Posted: 7/31/2012 2:12:14 PM
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#64
Posted: 7/31/2012 6:10:03 PM
Damnit, I thought I locked in PHI +137 earlier, go to bet it, and it's at +132. It's definitely a play today, just a question of if we can get a better number or not.


Texas and Arizona will be plays as well.

We'll wait and try to get some better lines, I don't see them getting any worse and if they do that just makes me more confident.
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#65
Posted: 7/31/2012 6:52:33 PM
LOCKED IN:
PHI+128 (couldn't get a better number, oh well)
COL+1-107 (They'll win or get blown out right, don't need to pay extra juice to see a blow out!)
AZ+101
TEX-104

All 1 unit or to win 1 unit.
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#66
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:00:03 PM
Just noticed that Colorado one didn't make sense. I should've took ML or +1.5. Don't know why I did that, I guess with so much $ on STL I figure the +1.5 could hit.

I also played CLE+113 as part of a 3 game chase. They're good in gm1 of a series so hopefully they win it today. Played MIN O4-115 also, which kind of fits the system since CWS line has not went up since the opener, only down and back up.

I'll put the Min O4 in the record, but not the CLE chase, so I don't mess up the numbers on the reverse line movement. So that's 5 plays for today.
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#67
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:03:19 PM
Stepping out with another 2 unit play. Another unit on PHILLY+125.
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#68
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:19:25 PM
Another unit on Tex-104 and AZ+101. These 3 were my strongest plays so why not make them stronger than the other ones?

So current card look like this:
PHI 2 units at +128, +125
TEX 2 units at -104
AZ 2 units at +101
COL+1 1 unit at -107
MIN TT O4 1 unit at -115


Side play for me, CLE+113. Does not count toward the record.
OK gentlemen, as always, best of luck to everyone.
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#69
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:37:02 PM
PHI up 2-0.

I'm adding .8U to win 1U on COL+125. Seriously no friggin reason why it's hanging at this number. If I didn't already have almost 9 units out there, I'd probably make this a big play. For now it's just 1.87 units to win 2.
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#70
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:46:12 PM
COLO dropped to +120. I was just in time for that one. Definitely think I got the right side there. Leaning CHC+120 as well.
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#71
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:51:04 PM

tex ML

i like it

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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#72
Posted: 7/31/2012 7:53:09 PM
Adding Cubs +120 for 1 unit. I got 4 bigger plays so if I go 2-2 on those I would like to give myself a chance at more than a 3-3 split today.

SO, the official-I'm-leaving-my-computer-before-I-bet-something-else card is:
COL+125, +1 -107 (2.07 units to win 2)
PHI +125, 128 (2 units to win 2.53)
TEX-104 (2.08 units to win 2)
AZ+101 (2.02 units to win 2)
MIN O4-115 (1.15 units to win 1)
CHC+120 (1 unit to win 1.20)


CLE+113 side bet for me.

Oh and here's 2 parlays just in case they hit lol.
CHC+120/AZ+101/TEX-104/CLE+113/OAK-117 33-1
CHC O3.5 TT/COL+125/AZ O3.5/TEX O4.5/MIN O4 30-1
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#73
Posted: 7/31/2012 8:00:28 PM

Nice work on monday!

Texas is gettin all the action today. Both teams at -105 here in vegas.

Beck,where are you following your lines at? Thanks

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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#74
Posted: 7/31/2012 8:07:03 PM
Texas is not getting the action... there is about 70%+ tied up on Angels RL, ML, and Exotics... not to mention it's in the top 3 bet games of the day.

If you're asking where I monitor the bet percentages, Google Pregame Bet %.
If you're asking where I get my lines to bet, 5dimes.
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#75
Posted: 7/31/2012 10:19:06 PM
Man... rough day.
Cubs never even gave a garbage.
Colorado's wasted countless opportunities, as has Minnesota to score.
Holland 4 runs 4 hits, 3 of them homers.

Guess I'm just rooting for AZ to win to stop the bleeding. None of these other teams showed up today. It's my fault though, keep telling myself to give up on Colorado, and I fell in love with Texas like a dumbass.
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