= Yesterday it was an obvious *UNDER* play and today, it's not obvious, but I'll be rollin' with the *OVER* for the finale in Japan. New year, new leaf, for M's pitcher Jason Vargas, but with the Tokyo Dome being a hitters type of park, then I expect him to struggle a bit -vs- the potent (sarcasm) Athletics lineup. Last year, he was 1-3 -vs- the A's and allowed 5+ runs in 2 of the 5 outings he faced them... on the flip side of pitcher -vs- opponent from last year, well, Bartolo Colon did not face the Mariners. However, he had a pretty horrible 2nd half of pitching last year while serving his time in the Yankees rotation.
Colon started 14 games during the 2nd half and watched his ERA of 3.20 from the 1st half, balloon up to nearly 5 earned runs per game - 4.96 ERA to be exact. He's currently on a streak of 4 losing contests, and I don't know if that streak will break tonight, but I do anticipate him struggling to find his grove -vs- some scrappy lefties the Mariners have... #1 through #6 in the lineup only have 1 right handed hitter and that's Jesus Montero; Figgins, Ackley, Ichiro, Smoak, and Carp all hit from the left side of the plate. Those lefties will be facing a RHP, Colon, who served up nearly an opponents LHB Batting Average of .300 - lefties his .297 on the year last year when facing Colon.
I'm fairly confident with my money in this contest being placed on the *OVER 8.5* for the game, and the Mariners (1st 5) ML
*Sidebar - what a weird. friggin'. way. to start off the 2012 MLB Season. They should kept this Japan ball in spring training, or at least something like half way through the season. Something other then America's Past-Time opening up NOT in America... Geez.
= Yesterday it was an obvious *UNDER* play and today, it's not obvious, but I'll be rollin' with the *OVER* for the finale in Japan. New year, new leaf, for M's pitcher Jason Vargas, but with the Tokyo Dome being a hitters type of park, then I expect him to struggle a bit -vs- the potent (sarcasm) Athletics lineup. Last year, he was 1-3 -vs- the A's and allowed 5+ runs in 2 of the 5 outings he faced them... on the flip side of pitcher -vs- opponent from last year, well, Bartolo Colon did not face the Mariners. However, he had a pretty horrible 2nd half of pitching last year while serving his time in the Yankees rotation.
Colon started 14 games during the 2nd half and watched his ERA of 3.20 from the 1st half, balloon up to nearly 5 earned runs per game - 4.96 ERA to be exact. He's currently on a streak of 4 losing contests, and I don't know if that streak will break tonight, but I do anticipate him struggling to find his grove -vs- some scrappy lefties the Mariners have... #1 through #6 in the lineup only have 1 right handed hitter and that's Jesus Montero; Figgins, Ackley, Ichiro, Smoak, and Carp all hit from the left side of the plate. Those lefties will be facing a RHP, Colon, who served up nearly an opponents LHB Batting Average of .300 - lefties his .297 on the year last year when facing Colon.
I'm fairly confident with my money in this contest being placed on the *OVER 8.5* for the game, and the Mariners (1st 5) ML
*Sidebar - what a weird. friggin'. way. to start off the 2012 MLB Season. They should kept this Japan ball in spring training, or at least something like half way through the season. Something other then America's Past-Time opening up NOT in America... Geez.
I'm not saying the over won't hit, but I think your take on Colon is somewhat flawed. By looking at the second half of the season and thinking it indicates doom for this season, I don't think is accurate. Bartolo Colon is nearly 40 and shaped like a cube; it would make sense that he would fade in the second half of the season. He can clearly still "pitch" (the esoteric game of pitcher vs. batter), but his body is well below stellar.
His K/BB stayed pretty constant in the second half of last season though, and his BABIP in July was .374 and .337 in September (.290 in August). Of course, this was balancing out his suppressed BABIP's from earlier in the season when he was pitching lights out. My point is, I think Colon is much more likely to achieve his successes earlier in the season and he could once again put up a solid numbers in the first half. I don't think he is the 5.00 ERA pitcher from the second half, I think he is the 4.00 ERA pitcher he ended up the season as, with the possibility to half a similar split from last season
I think he can outpitch Vargas, definitely, and the A's could have the lead after 5.
I'm not saying the over won't hit, but I think your take on Colon is somewhat flawed. By looking at the second half of the season and thinking it indicates doom for this season, I don't think is accurate. Bartolo Colon is nearly 40 and shaped like a cube; it would make sense that he would fade in the second half of the season. He can clearly still "pitch" (the esoteric game of pitcher vs. batter), but his body is well below stellar.
His K/BB stayed pretty constant in the second half of last season though, and his BABIP in July was .374 and .337 in September (.290 in August). Of course, this was balancing out his suppressed BABIP's from earlier in the season when he was pitching lights out. My point is, I think Colon is much more likely to achieve his successes earlier in the season and he could once again put up a solid numbers in the first half. I don't think he is the 5.00 ERA pitcher from the second half, I think he is the 4.00 ERA pitcher he ended up the season as, with the possibility to half a similar split from last season
I think he can outpitch Vargas, definitely, and the A's could have the lead after 5.
I'm not saying the over won't hit, but I think your take on Colon is somewhat flawed. By looking at the second half of the season and thinking it indicates doom for this season, I don't think is accurate. Bartolo Colon is nearly 40 and shaped like a cube; it would make sense that he would fade in the second half of the season. He can clearly still "pitch" (the esoteric game of pitcher vs. batter), but his body is well below stellar.
His K/BB stayed pretty constant in the second half of last season though, and his BABIP in July was .374 and .337 in September (.290 in August). Of course, this was balancing out his suppressed BABIP's from earlier in the season when he was pitching lights out. My point is, I think Colon is much more likely to achieve his successes earlier in the season and he could once again put up a solid numbers in the first half. I don't think he is the 5.00 ERA pitcher from the second half, I think he is the 4.00 ERA pitcher he ended up the season as, with the possibility to half a similar split from last season
I think he can outpitch Vargas, definitely, and the A's could have the lead after 5.
Well said...
I never said his season is anywhere in the category of being doomed - but his struggles from the 2nd half of last year can easily roll over to this year. His spring training outings (only 2 starts) had him go a combined 6 innings, with 4 earned runs, and 5 k's. Can't sample size off of his spring training what so ever...
But the main thing that came into play was his #'s -vs- lefties - .297 AVG & .545 SLG% are 2 solid #'s to base some early season #'s on.
FIrst series of the season - 2nd game of the season - Finale out of the US - it's almost more of a guessing game then actually capping & statistical breakdowns.
I'm not saying the over won't hit, but I think your take on Colon is somewhat flawed. By looking at the second half of the season and thinking it indicates doom for this season, I don't think is accurate. Bartolo Colon is nearly 40 and shaped like a cube; it would make sense that he would fade in the second half of the season. He can clearly still "pitch" (the esoteric game of pitcher vs. batter), but his body is well below stellar.
His K/BB stayed pretty constant in the second half of last season though, and his BABIP in July was .374 and .337 in September (.290 in August). Of course, this was balancing out his suppressed BABIP's from earlier in the season when he was pitching lights out. My point is, I think Colon is much more likely to achieve his successes earlier in the season and he could once again put up a solid numbers in the first half. I don't think he is the 5.00 ERA pitcher from the second half, I think he is the 4.00 ERA pitcher he ended up the season as, with the possibility to half a similar split from last season
I think he can outpitch Vargas, definitely, and the A's could have the lead after 5.
Well said...
I never said his season is anywhere in the category of being doomed - but his struggles from the 2nd half of last year can easily roll over to this year. His spring training outings (only 2 starts) had him go a combined 6 innings, with 4 earned runs, and 5 k's. Can't sample size off of his spring training what so ever...
But the main thing that came into play was his #'s -vs- lefties - .297 AVG & .545 SLG% are 2 solid #'s to base some early season #'s on.
FIrst series of the season - 2nd game of the season - Finale out of the US - it's almost more of a guessing game then actually capping & statistical breakdowns.
Couldn't agree more, that's why I'm going to pass on tomorrow morning's game after hitting today. Good luck GiL
I'm confident in my wagers I placed for tomorrow morning's Japan Ball - but it's just as much as guessing who will do what as opposed to a few games being played to actually sit down & cap, stratagize, stats, etc...
Couldn't agree more, that's why I'm going to pass on tomorrow morning's game after hitting today. Good luck GiL
I'm confident in my wagers I placed for tomorrow morning's Japan Ball - but it's just as much as guessing who will do what as opposed to a few games being played to actually sit down & cap, stratagize, stats, etc...
Hey Gil great year last year. Just wondering how you have done in previous years as well? You seem to know your shit. I'm very fimiliar with the MLB and baseball, but not confident enough in my ability to cap it yet. I started playing last year for small unit amounts half way through the season and hit 60% over 80 plays. I haven't really put much value into that as it was my first year of single game wagering and it could have just been a hot streak.
* Sorry Spartacus - missed your comment from yesterday...
Last year was the first year I kept a *YTD* Record posting in the MLB Forum - I was +200 unit$ overall for the 2011 MLB Season...
Baseball has been my only consistent sport I've wagered in. Love the game of Baseball. Been a part of baseball for almost 25 years; watching, playing, wagering, studying, analyzing, fantasy, etc...
This year you'll see me keeping track of each wager I place and seperating Standard Plays from Big Plays, and a "Huge Play" would be 5U+ but those will be very rare & limited... here's my breakdown for this year:
• +DOG(s): • -FAV(s): • Total(s): • Team Total(s): • Runline(s): • ALT Runline(s): • 1st 5 inning(s): ____________________________________________________
It's a long haul, and MLB can get quite exhausting. All the vets here will tell you that it's a marathon and not a sprint. Be patient. Money management is key. And know when to take a break. Cold streak, back away for a day or two or 3 or more... Hot streak, a little wager increasing is what I'll do. The #1 reason why we all do this is to make money. To be in the +GREEN - and enjoy yourself. Not trying to go the Nice Guy route, but it's true. I love this forum, and you'll meet alot of good dudes here who really know the game of Baseball. All the Football & Basketball forums here are like a freaking Zoo. Unbearable to even scroll through there...
Hey Gil great year last year. Just wondering how you have done in previous years as well? You seem to know your shit. I'm very fimiliar with the MLB and baseball, but not confident enough in my ability to cap it yet. I started playing last year for small unit amounts half way through the season and hit 60% over 80 plays. I haven't really put much value into that as it was my first year of single game wagering and it could have just been a hot streak.
* Sorry Spartacus - missed your comment from yesterday...
Last year was the first year I kept a *YTD* Record posting in the MLB Forum - I was +200 unit$ overall for the 2011 MLB Season...
Baseball has been my only consistent sport I've wagered in. Love the game of Baseball. Been a part of baseball for almost 25 years; watching, playing, wagering, studying, analyzing, fantasy, etc...
This year you'll see me keeping track of each wager I place and seperating Standard Plays from Big Plays, and a "Huge Play" would be 5U+ but those will be very rare & limited... here's my breakdown for this year:
• +DOG(s): • -FAV(s): • Total(s): • Team Total(s): • Runline(s): • ALT Runline(s): • 1st 5 inning(s): ____________________________________________________
It's a long haul, and MLB can get quite exhausting. All the vets here will tell you that it's a marathon and not a sprint. Be patient. Money management is key. And know when to take a break. Cold streak, back away for a day or two or 3 or more... Hot streak, a little wager increasing is what I'll do. The #1 reason why we all do this is to make money. To be in the +GREEN - and enjoy yourself. Not trying to go the Nice Guy route, but it's true. I love this forum, and you'll meet alot of good dudes here who really know the game of Baseball. All the Football & Basketball forums here are like a freaking Zoo. Unbearable to even scroll through there...
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