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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: whats so great about moneyball?
Sparky10191 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 2/8/2012 4:52:44 PM
Then I guess I was just giving my view on it. My mistake. 

However...I still feel that Billy Beane gets too much credit. And the worst part about it is that he continues to do what got him where he is and it's just not working.

You can look at it 2 ways.

1. Everyone has caught up and is doing a BETTER job than he is.

Or

2. His experiment was a flash in the pan.

If you look at sabermetrics...some of these stats are just stupid. A walk is more valuable than a hit? Just stupid. But that's also my opinion.
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#27
Posted: 2/8/2012 6:48:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

just had lunch at mcd and saw that beane got extension thru 2019.


dude, just accept the fact that the stars just lined up.......it happens in sports.   is someone going to come up with a name for butlers success the last few years. butler can do the same thing the next 200 years and wont get a sniff of a championship.



the true test of any theory is the test o time.   seems moneyball is at the current time failing.


Do you find it odd that since the one and done rule went into effect that more and more senior laden mid major teams are having more success in college hoops? I don't know if George Mason's run was during 1 and done or not but them, Butler, ODU, multiple WCC teams, Missouri Valley teams, Murray St and their weak schedule this year. Look at the current top 25, it will look a lot different than it was 10 years ago. 

My friend there is a cause and effect for almost everything in life. You just have to look deep enough to find it. 

I respect your opinion about not believing in the Moneyball concepts. If you don't approach the subject with an open mind then I can throw all the reasons in the world at you and you will still dismiss them. 
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#28
Posted: 2/8/2012 6:57:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

Then I guess I was just giving my view on it. My mistake. 

However...I still feel that Billy Beane gets too much credit. And the worst part about it is that he continues to do what got him where he is and it's just not working.

You can look at it 2 ways.

1. Everyone has caught up and is doing a BETTER job than he is.

Or

2. His experiment was a flash in the pan.

If you look at sabermetrics...some of these stats are just stupid. A walk is more valuable than a hit? Just stupid. But that's also my opinion.

Sabremetrics doesn't say that a walk is more valuable than a hit. If the hit is a single then both outcomes are weighted the same. If the hit is double then it's worth more. Hence the term "on base plus slugging" or OPS. 

I would say that some of the Sabremetric stats are WAY more relevant than traditional baseball stats like batting average. You know batting average, the one that says that the difference between .250 and .300 is something like a hit every other week. Regardless of whether that hit is meaningless or a game winning home run. We would judge the .300 guy as far more valuable than the .250 even though that hit may not have any impact on a game when it occurs. 

How bout RBI's? Unless the batter hits a HR, a batter has absolutely no control over what the other guys ahead of him do at the plate. 

It's stats like this, traditionally the stuff that most teams overpaid for in the past, that Beane was hoping to find way around. He hired guys that figured out what it took to win games. Those guys figured out that it obviously took scoring runs. And they figured the optimal way to score runs was to get guys with higher OPS or just plain got on base. Then they went and got the guys that the market overlooked and they could get on the cheap. 

Sparky,

I am curious as to who you would give the credit to though? I know Bill James was the guy who really got into this stuff before Beane did. Everyone else in Baseball discredited James until Beane started having success with this stuff. 
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#29
Posted: 2/8/2012 6:59:51 PM
Sparky,

I would go with number 1 as to why the A's have regressed back to where their payroll dictates where they should be. 

Even your example, the Rays and Friedman, turned to one of Beane's prinicples of stock piling talent through the draft and getting guys with potentially higher ceilings. I did some reading up on Friedman over the last hour or two and was really impressed with this guy. 


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#30
Posted: 2/8/2012 7:12:22 PM
For the record the A's finished 1st or 2nd in the West from '99 til '06. Never winning fewer than 88 games in a season. 

This isn't my first choice for sources to use 
but here is a list of payrolls during this time span. I can't even knock you guys for killing me for this source but I'm lazy and this came up first on my google search. Hey at least they attribute their numbers to the AP.

The A's were in the bottom half of Baseball, if not the bottom 3rd of the Baseball for all of these seasons. 

What I do find interesting is where the Rays have been during their good years. Friedman has been very impressive. I think it's fair to say that Friedman has taken over Beane's spot as Baseball's "genius". Nice call on that Sparky


I would really have a hard time calling that a "flash in the pan" or all the stars lining up right for them. 


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#31
Posted: 2/8/2012 8:50:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:


Sabremetrics doesn't say that a walk is more valuable than a hit. If the hit is a single then both outcomes are weighted the same. If the hit is double then it's worth more. Hence the term "on base plus slugging" or OPS. 

I would say that some of the Sabremetric stats are WAY more relevant than traditional baseball stats like batting average. You know batting average, the one that says that the difference between .250 and .300 is something like a hit every other week. Regardless of whether that hit is meaningless or a game winning home run. We would judge the .300 guy as far more valuable than the .250 even though that hit may not have any impact on a game when it occurs. 

How bout RBI's? Unless the batter hits a HR, a batter has absolutely no control over what the other guys ahead of him do at the plate. 

It's stats like this, traditionally the stuff that most teams overpaid for in the past, that Beane was hoping to find way around. He hired guys that figured out what it took to win games. Those guys figured out that it obviously took scoring runs. And they figured the optimal way to score runs was to get guys with higher OPS or just plain got on base. Then they went and got the guys that the market overlooked and they could get on the cheap. 

Sparky,

I am curious as to who you would give the credit to though? I know Bill James was the guy who really got into this stuff before Beane did. Everyone else in Baseball discredited James until Beane started having success with this stuff. 

I watched that show on MLB Network called Clubhouse Confidential which is all about sabermetrics. That's where I heard one of the stats (forgot the name) that says that a walk is more valuable than a single. I haven't watched that show since. I never liked sabermetrics (and I'm sure no player gives a garbage about it either), and I decided to give the show a shot and it wasn't worth my time. It had Brian Kenny (I think is his name) arguing numbers with Harold Reynolds (who I side with) and I Kenny did NOTHING to win be over with his argument. Far from compelling.

And I'm on the side that were talked about before. The team had some solid pitchers in their rotation. Zito, Hudson and Mulder created one of the better rotations in the league. And it's no coincidence that they've been going down hill ever since that group was broken up.

And then there's no explaining his moves over the last few years. Getting Cargo+ in the deal for Haren. Then, for reasons unexplained, traded Cargo in a package for Holliday. Then traded Holliday for less than top value because he sucked in Oakland. So that was a fail. And lets not even talk about this year. He's just terrible right now. When every year is rebuilding year (even after years where your team is pretty decent and has something to work with)...you have problems.

Yes...Beane opened the eyes of teams about the importance of taking the base. But that's the only thing I'm willing to give him credit for to be honest.
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#32
Posted: 2/8/2012 9:07:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:


I watched that show on MLB Network called Clubhouse Confidential which is all about sabermetrics. That's where I heard one of the stats (forgot the name) that says that a walk is more valuable than a single. I haven't watched that show since. I never liked sabermetrics (and I'm sure no player gives a garbage about it either), and I decided to give the show a shot and it wasn't worth my time. It had Brian Kenny (I think is his name) arguing numbers with Harold Reynolds (who I side with) and I Kenny did NOTHING to win be over with his argument. Far from compelling.

And I'm on the side that were talked about before. The team had some solid pitchers in their rotation. Zito, Hudson and Mulder created one of the better rotations in the league. And it's no coincidence that they've been going down hill ever since that group was broken up.

And then there's no explaining his moves over the last few years. Getting Cargo+ in the deal for Haren. Then, for reasons unexplained, traded Cargo in a package for Holliday. Then traded Holliday for less than top value because he sucked in Oakland. So that was a fail. And lets not even talk about this year. He's just terrible right now. When every year is rebuilding year (even after years where your team is pretty decent and has something to work with)...you have problems.

Yes...Beane opened the eyes of teams about the importance of taking the base. But that's the only thing I'm willing to give him credit for to be honest.

I admit the Holliday move baffled me. It totally went against everything he has done since he started doing this thing. I am completely baffled by that one, I admit. Especially since Cargo would fit in perfectly until they would have to lose him to F.A. 

As far as the MLB debate between Kenny and Reynolds, I would say that a base is a base regardless of whether it's a hit or a walk. It's measured the same in sabremetrics as far as I know(and by no means am I an expert at it). 

With the pitchers I agree it is nice having that talent. But Moneyball is what allows the A's to pass on overpaying guys like Zito. I don't know exactly what went wrong with him, obviously ball park will play a part but it can't be THAT big of a drop off for him can it? My point with the pitchers though is how they were acquired. And it is essentially the same way that the Rays ended up with David Price. 

Moneyball even throws out the stats that college pitchers are 4 times more likely to make the big leagues than high school pitchers(even adjusting for time). When a guy comes out of college at 21 or 22 you have a much better idea of what to expect than when he is 18 and not fully developed. 

Like I said before, it's not an exact science. It's not a full proof blueprint. But this game isn't played on the same level by all teams. There is no salary cap to balance these things out. Money is a huge part of the game and buying players, and hopefully wins. What Moneyball presents is a different way of playing the game of getting getting players without the resources the larger market has. 

I've definitely enjoyed this discussion with you though. Thanks for keeping an open mind and presenting great points.

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#33
Posted: 2/8/2012 9:39:32 PM

i dont even follow the a's  but are they the ones who signed coco crispies to a big deal,  who absolutey will do nothing for a below avg team


he can help an already good team though.


MONEYball was invente d so some nerd could cash in...........nothing wrong with that unless you fall for it...............hahahahahaha.

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#34
Posted: 2/8/2012 9:41:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

i dont even follow the a's  but are they the ones who signed coco crispies to a big deal,  who absolutey will do nothing for a below avg team


he can help an already good team though.


MONEYball was invente d so some nerd could cash in...........nothing wrong with that unless you fall for it...............hahahahahaha.


It's always a good conversation until your dumb behind chimes in. I notice you really don't offer any response to my points but instead ask ignorant questions that really don't have anything to do with what we are talking about. 

Good job acting like partially retarded 15 year old. 

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#35
Posted: 2/8/2012 10:42:48 PM
red sox would still be waiting for a world series title since 19 whatever it was if it wasnt for the ideas in moneyball
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#36
Posted: 2/8/2012 11:28:41 PM

mr ktrain .


hows this.    moneyball works as long as you got a stud pitching staff and a juiced up giambi producing big numbers!

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#37
Posted: 2/8/2012 11:35:39 PM
this guy is like global warmers.....they write well but all they write is garbage! mr beane got lucky and he wanted the world to know it!
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#38
Posted: 2/9/2012 2:13:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

this guy is like global warmers.....they write well but all they write is garbage! mr beane got lucky and he wanted the world to know it!

HE DIDN'T WRITE THE friggin BOOK YOU MORON!!!! 

Micheal Lewis wrote the book because he wanted to know why the Oakland A's were competing with, and in some instances, beating teams with 3 times their payroll for the better part of a friggin decade. 

I know this is difficult for your ignorant behind to understand, but doing what he did, with the resources he had, for 7 or so years isn't "a flash in the pan". 

He made the playoffs more than numerous other teams during that time frame that were spending more than twice as much. 

Do you wonder why several of his "protege's" went on to get hired by other major league teams? Ricciardi in Toronto, those guys Epstein and Bill James in Boston, Towers in Arizona and San Diego. Oh yeah, those guys that just so happened to win not one but two World Series for a team that hadn't won a single one since 1919 after trying all sorts of methods. 

Yes this Moneyball method was soooooo wildly unsuccessful that essentially every team in the bottom third of the league in payroll has mimicked it in some way. 

Guess where Friedman in Tampa got his idea to stock pile talent through the draft as oppose to signing over priced free agents? It's the same idea Beane used when acquiring Mulder, Zito, and Hudson. They didn't fall from the friggin sky now did they?

If you weren't so mildly retarded and could contribute anything beside a broken, half assed attempt and stringing a sentence together, this could be one of the better threads on Covers. But no, you had to go and be an ignorant behind hole about a very controversial subject in Baseball. One that has legitimate arguments on both sides. 

Even Sparky was raising good points against mine that didn't require him to come across looking like a friggin moronic child. 

Nice going lewlew, hopefully you get hit by a car tomorrow and society can carry on without you. 

Kinda odd how guys like Epst
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#39
Posted: 2/9/2012 2:15:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

mr ktrain .


hows this.    moneyball works as long as you got a stud pitching staff and a juiced up giambi producing big numbers!


God you're so friggin dumb. You realize they made the playoffs the year after Giambi left right? Then they made the ALCS in 2006 right? I'm pretty sure it had nothing to do with those players since most of them were all gone. 

Do the world a favor and stop talking. 
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#40
Posted: 2/9/2012 2:17:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mr_bollox:

red sox would still be waiting for a world series title since 19 whatever it was if it wasnt for the ideas in moneyball



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#41
Posted: 2/9/2012 9:39:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:



I will start the audio version later today. 




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#42
Posted: 2/9/2012 10:04:47 AM
I have no problem with the concept of moneyball. My problem is the people who love sabermetrics treat people who don't follow it like we eat our boogers. If sabermetrics helps people enjoy the game more great. But just because someone like me really doesn't care for it doesn't mean i'm an idiot. Just my 2 cents
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#43
Posted: 2/9/2012 11:28:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:


It's always a good conversation until your dumb behind chimes in. I notice you really don't offer any response to my points but instead ask ignorant questions that really don't have anything to do with what we are talking about. 

Good job acting like partially retarded 15 year old. 

Get used to it, this is a Covers form.

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#44
Posted: 2/9/2012 11:57:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packers1992:

I have no problem with the concept of moneyball. My problem is the people who love sabermetrics treat people who don't follow it like we eat our boogers. If sabermetrics helps people enjoy the game more great. But just because someone like me really doesn't care for it doesn't mean i'm an idiot. Just my 2 cents

I still look at traditional stats like Batting Average, RBI's, and HR's. I just look at Batting Average and RBI's a little differently now. There are some dumb sabremetric stats and some that are constantly changing.
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#45
Posted: 2/9/2012 12:35:23 PM
Everythign Ktrain is right and is pretty much the exact response I would have given.

To expand... Moneyball is about finding what aspects/qualities are undervalued in the marketplace. During the time period of the movie, OBP, was the undervalued stat in the marketplace. OBP is one of the most important things in baseball yet no one in baseball was weighing it as importantly as BA, HR, RBIs, etc.

Now every team has teams of statisticians and anyone in this thread saying sabermetrics are not htat important or teams are using these stats that are not better than BA, HR, RBIs, etc are showing their ignorance. The Yankees have a team of 31 stat guys who sole job is to use advanced sabermetrics and build models and sift through the numbers and find players who are undervalued or will cost less than the perceived cost of that player across baseball. The same things is done with every single organization. Sabermetrics is real and the stats and numbers yield that other 90% of the iceberg that is hidden underwater. BA, HR, RBI and the traditional stats only show you what is on the surface.

Nowadays the undervalued part of baseball is DEFENSE. I have been saying it for about 3 years on this site. DEFENSE,DEFENSE, DEFENSE. There is no defensive measurement that can accurately value a player on defense but there are multiple stats that you can use to get an understanding of which players are better defensively and then you cross check those findings with your pro scouts who tell you what they see with their eyes. There are still tons and tons of improvements going in baseball with tracking defense and properly evaluating defense. Some ballparks have cameras installed that track every single batted ball along with the defender and where they started to the end of the play. As these cameras start being installed in every ballpark; stat guys will be able to create models for defense that more accurately depict a players defensive capabilities.

This is why you see teams picking up and using younger players for the fraction of the cost vs. signing older more known players. The younger players are not as well known but will perform at a similar level or production for pennies on the dollar. The end result is more bang for your buck.

Also I have seen plenty of people, especially Sparky, ripping the A's for trading Gio. The A's fleeced that Nats in that deal. Absolutely fleeced them with the return they got. Just about any franchise in baseball would have made that deal 9 out of 10 times with the exception of the teams who are expected to win and compete for a WS this year. It is beyond stupid and horrific management to keep Gio given the fact that the Angels and Rangers are more than likely not going to be overtaken. So you trade one of your most marketable trade pieces and receive a kings ransom. A pitcher can blow their arm out on any 1 single pitch and you never know when that pitch might come. You never risk not trading a top pitcher for a top return when in 2 years they might have had to dealt him and ended up getting half of what they received this off season.

If the O's waiting even a half year to trade Bedard they would have not gotten anywhere close to the return they received from the Mariners or what they were offered from the Reds (Votto was in part of the deal from the reds but McPhail went with the Mariners deal because it had more pieces)
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#46
Posted: 2/9/2012 5:25:37 PM

ill try again.......ne patriots have been really good for a long time.....someone will try to define belichicks genius.



all it was was they picked a middle round qb who turned out to be a superstar.



AND PLEASE DO TELL WHO THESE OTHER LOW PAYROLL TEAMS WHO ARE HAVING SUCCES USING SABERMETTICS.


the bottom third teams in payroll today will be the bottom third teams tomorrow and beyond.   some will have good drafts and be competitive for a while and then fade when they cant pay.



and the yankees into sabermetrics?........all i see is they overpay for stars year after year.  some times it works sometimes it doesnt.


boston gm not make the case for sabermetrics..............lol.   they willing to pay to play with the big boys. 

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#47
Posted: 2/9/2012 5:58:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

ill try again.......ne patriots have been really good for a long time.....someone will try to define belichicks genius.



all it was was they picked a middle round qb who turned out to be a superstar.



AND PLEASE DO TELL WHO THESE OTHER LOW PAYROLL TEAMS WHO ARE HAVING SUCCES USING SABERMETTICS.


the bottom third teams in payroll today will be the bottom third teams tomorrow and beyond.   some will have good drafts and be competitive for a while and then fade when they cant pay.



and the yankees into sabermetrics?........all i see is they overpay for stars year after year.  some times it works sometimes it doesnt.


boston gm not make the case for sabermetrics..............lol.   they willing to pay to play with the big boys. 


Please tell me English isn't your first language. 

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#48
Posted: 2/9/2012 6:02:31 PM

so fuunny !


a scout goes to dominican republic and looks for guys who can walk off the island or does he look for guys who can drive in runns,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,hahahaha.


god i love baseball.   pedro g.  once said he see ball he hit ball....

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#49
Posted: 2/9/2012 6:23:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew:

so fuunny !


a scout goes to dominican republic and looks for guys who can walk off the island or does he look for guys who can drive in runns,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,hahahaha.


god i love baseball.   pedro g.  once said he see ball he hit ball....


Please don't reproduce. 
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#50
Posted: 2/9/2012 6:42:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:


That's where I heard one of the stats (forgot the name) that says that a walk is more valuable than a single.

A walk is actually more valuable than a single. With a walk you are automatically on first. There are many times a player is credited with a single and is thrown out stretching that single to a double. It still counts as a single but that player is not physically on base. Also there are times a player makes a wide turn and is thrown out because of bad baserunning. This is why a walk is more valuable than a single.

 I haven't watched that show since. I never liked sabermetrics (and I'm sure no player gives a garbage about it either)

Nowadays most players are very aware and use sabermetrics daily. Every batter has printouts of their AVG, OBP, OPS, etc of how they hit in certain zones of the strikezone and in certain counts, situations, etc. This is all sabermetrics. The same goes for pitching side. Baseball has evolved from just being scouting reports to using the sabermetric numbers and trying to gain any advantage possible. It is the same reason the Red Sox and Yankees consistently walk the most in the league and see the most pitches.

Yes...Beane opened the eyes of teams about the importance of taking the base. But that's the only thing I'm willing to give him credit for to be honest.

If you think "money ball" and Billy Beane was just about OBP then you completely missed the point and are not looking at the big picture. OBP was the stat that he identified as undervalued and something that was important and he exposed the market for their inefficient pricing of players who excelled in OBP but were not as successful in other areas. Today OBP is not longer undervalued and there are other things such as WAR, OPS+, wOBA, and others
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