0-3-0 yesterday .. 0-Fer Wednesday staring Spaz and his Titanic like picks. Right, it's Thursday.
San Francisco Giants +125 (18 units to win 22.50)
Good looking pitching matchup tonight in SF with Lee vs. Bumgarner. Phils come in rolling, winners of 6 in a row vs. the team formerly known as the NL Central contending Pirates and the Colorado Rockies. Phillies lost 2 of 3 to the Giants at the end of July falling victim to Cain and Lincecum. Tonight they get the young Bumgarner who was knocked around for 5 ER on 7 hits in 4 innings of work vs. the Reds. In his career, Bumgarner is 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four career starts following ones where he allowed 4 earned runs or more. One step further, this year, since May, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in starts following ones where he gave up 3 earned runs or more. Always a threat of mastery with Cliff Lee on the hill, but he is struggling and he seems to hit a rough patch every year where he strings bad starts on top of one another.
0-3-0 yesterday .. 0-Fer Wednesday staring Spaz and his Titanic like picks. Right, it's Thursday.
San Francisco Giants +125 (18 units to win 22.50)
Good looking pitching matchup tonight in SF with Lee vs. Bumgarner. Phils come in rolling, winners of 6 in a row vs. the team formerly known as the NL Central contending Pirates and the Colorado Rockies. Phillies lost 2 of 3 to the Giants at the end of July falling victim to Cain and Lincecum. Tonight they get the young Bumgarner who was knocked around for 5 ER on 7 hits in 4 innings of work vs. the Reds. In his career, Bumgarner is 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four career starts following ones where he allowed 4 earned runs or more. One step further, this year, since May, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in starts following ones where he gave up 3 earned runs or more. Always a threat of mastery with Cliff Lee on the hill, but he is struggling and he seems to hit a rough patch every year where he strings bad starts on top of one another.
I just keep looking at this game and can't walk away from it. Marlins are without Hanley and I'malways on the hunt for taking advantage of the RP turned SP experiments. Clay Hensley hasn't thrown over 90 pitches since 2007 and he appears to be handling the additional workload on his arm well. However, I'm not so quick to sign up that he should be laying almost even money vs. the Cardinals lineup. Again, can't walk away from this one even though I likely should.
I just keep looking at this game and can't walk away from it. Marlins are without Hanley and I'malways on the hunt for taking advantage of the RP turned SP experiments. Clay Hensley hasn't thrown over 90 pitches since 2007 and he appears to be handling the additional workload on his arm well. However, I'm not so quick to sign up that he should be laying almost even money vs. the Cardinals lineup. Again, can't walk away from this one even though I likely should.
Love the play Spaz and glad to see you on it as well.
Let's hope Cliff Lee mirrors the same sort of performance as he did the last time he played @ AT&T Park... Game 1 of the World Series last year where he got crushed for 6ER in 4IP.
Love the play Spaz and glad to see you on it as well.
Let's hope Cliff Lee mirrors the same sort of performance as he did the last time he played @ AT&T Park... Game 1 of the World Series last year where he got crushed for 6ER in 4IP.
tuck - I'm interested in the 10 run angle if you have it. I leaned over, but something tells me Lohse will navigate through this lineup esp. without Hanley. Be interested in any umpire trends that might support Cards and/or Over. Thanks
tuck - I'm interested in the 10 run angle if you have it. I leaned over, but something tells me Lohse will navigate through this lineup esp. without Hanley. Be interested in any umpire trends that might support Cards and/or Over. Thanks
Playing the ChiSox based on athlete inconsistencies. I realize the Yanks are playing real well, but they had four players combine to hit 15 for 22 (.681) in yesterday's offensive onslaught over the White Sox. I took a look at how these players (Gardner, Jeter, Granderson and Cano) fare in games following ones where they had three hits or more. This year, the foursome are 17-93 (.182 average) in games following ones where each individually had three hits or more. Throw in that Eric Chavez went 3 for 4 and Tex hasn't gone three straight games with 2+ RBIs and you wonder where the offense will come from tonight.
Yes, most of these guys are above average players, but they are human and while might repeat their performance last night, it's highly likely than most of them do not.
This isn't why I initially played the ChiSox, it was mostly based on my belief that Ivan Nova gets hit pretty hard tonight. In his career, Nova is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in starts following ones where he threw at least 7 innings.
Playing the ChiSox based on athlete inconsistencies. I realize the Yanks are playing real well, but they had four players combine to hit 15 for 22 (.681) in yesterday's offensive onslaught over the White Sox. I took a look at how these players (Gardner, Jeter, Granderson and Cano) fare in games following ones where they had three hits or more. This year, the foursome are 17-93 (.182 average) in games following ones where each individually had three hits or more. Throw in that Eric Chavez went 3 for 4 and Tex hasn't gone three straight games with 2+ RBIs and you wonder where the offense will come from tonight.
Yes, most of these guys are above average players, but they are human and while might repeat their performance last night, it's highly likely than most of them do not.
This isn't why I initially played the ChiSox, it was mostly based on my belief that Ivan Nova gets hit pretty hard tonight. In his career, Nova is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in starts following ones where he threw at least 7 innings.
I am curious about your PIT lean. I started a thread with some trends for both CHC and PIT. I am wondering if you thought those trends have much merit?
I am curious about your PIT lean. I started a thread with some trends for both CHC and PIT. I am wondering if you thought those trends have much merit?
Spaz - here's my take on Marlins/Cards UNDER you asked for (copy & pasted from my thread)
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Originally Posted by JayDelight729
Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 10 games while batting .295. Lohse has a bad history against the Marlins with an ERA over 5 against them.
Florida at even odds seems like a better pick than the under.
Hensley has pitched well in recent games too.
I like the numbers you've laid out - I went over the same numbers also, and thought about the Marlins as a play. Then the more I looked, I thought maybe the Cards would squeak one out. And if they were to squeak one out, then I'm going to bite @ the total, instead of the sides.
I see Lohse pitching a good game tonight. He's a far better pitcher on the road then he is @ home. Lohse is also sporting a ERA just a tad over 3.00 - and he's pitched 2 more games on the road then @ home and he's allowed 4 less HR. The HR isn't eye popping to most, but it's valuable when playing an UNDER total.
The pitching change might fool the Cards a bit as they were expecting Anibal Sanchez, so the bats might be cold. Althought I wouldn't be surprised if they heat up in the middle part of the game and smash this total. I've seen it happen times before when I bite for a pitching change. Clay Hensley is also pitching with 6 days of full rest.
Spaz - here's my take on Marlins/Cards UNDER you asked for (copy & pasted from my thread)
-----------------------------------------------
Originally Posted by JayDelight729
Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 10 games while batting .295. Lohse has a bad history against the Marlins with an ERA over 5 against them.
Florida at even odds seems like a better pick than the under.
Hensley has pitched well in recent games too.
I like the numbers you've laid out - I went over the same numbers also, and thought about the Marlins as a play. Then the more I looked, I thought maybe the Cards would squeak one out. And if they were to squeak one out, then I'm going to bite @ the total, instead of the sides.
I see Lohse pitching a good game tonight. He's a far better pitcher on the road then he is @ home. Lohse is also sporting a ERA just a tad over 3.00 - and he's pitched 2 more games on the road then @ home and he's allowed 4 less HR. The HR isn't eye popping to most, but it's valuable when playing an UNDER total.
The pitching change might fool the Cards a bit as they were expecting Anibal Sanchez, so the bats might be cold. Althought I wouldn't be surprised if they heat up in the middle part of the game and smash this total. I've seen it happen times before when I bite for a pitching change. Clay Hensley is also pitching with 6 days of full rest.
Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 10 games while batting .295. Lohse has a bad history against the Marlins with an ERA over 5 against them.
Florida at even odds seems like a better pick than the under.
Hensley has pitched well in recent games too.
-----------------------------------------
Here's my take. JaysDelights take above. Mine is below, Spaz. Thanx.
-----------------------
I like the numbers you've laid out - I went over the same numbers also, and thought about the Marlins as a play. Then the more I looked, I thought maybe the Cards would squeak one out. And if they were to squeak one out, then I'm going to bite @ the total, instead of the sides.
I see Lohse pitching a good game tonight. He's a far better pitcher on the road then he is @ home. Lohse is also sporting a ERA just a tad over 3.00 - and he's pitched 2 more games on the road then @ home and he's allowed 4 less HR. The HR isn't eye popping to most, but it's valuable when playing an UNDER total.
The pitching change might fool the Cards a bit as they were expecting Anibal Sanchez, so the bats might be cold. Althought I wouldn't be surprised if they heat up in the middle part of the game and smash this total. I've seen it happen times before when I bite for a pitching change. Clay Hensley is also pitching with 6 days of full rest.
Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 10 games while batting .295. Lohse has a bad history against the Marlins with an ERA over 5 against them.
Florida at even odds seems like a better pick than the under.
Hensley has pitched well in recent games too.
-----------------------------------------
Here's my take. JaysDelights take above. Mine is below, Spaz. Thanx.
-----------------------
I like the numbers you've laid out - I went over the same numbers also, and thought about the Marlins as a play. Then the more I looked, I thought maybe the Cards would squeak one out. And if they were to squeak one out, then I'm going to bite @ the total, instead of the sides.
I see Lohse pitching a good game tonight. He's a far better pitcher on the road then he is @ home. Lohse is also sporting a ERA just a tad over 3.00 - and he's pitched 2 more games on the road then @ home and he's allowed 4 less HR. The HR isn't eye popping to most, but it's valuable when playing an UNDER total.
The pitching change might fool the Cards a bit as they were expecting Anibal Sanchez, so the bats might be cold. Althought I wouldn't be surprised if they heat up in the middle part of the game and smash this total. I've seen it happen times before when I bite for a pitching change. Clay Hensley is also pitching with 6 days of full rest.
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