Lots of great insight in this thread! Quickly becoming the one stop shop for MLB information---a Google for the forum. I like the idea of everyone throwing down their favorite play(s) AND
reasoning, with everyone respectfully agreeing or disagreeing with
them. It'll probably make and save people a lot of money over the course
of a season.
Remember: Favorite Play(s) AND Reasoning!
Same
drill today.
Let's keep messages strictly about leans/picks/analysis and avoid "GL" type messages. Entertaining messages are welcome, too.
Getting tired of the MLB betting grind? Check out my latest Covers.com column: Sarah J. Phillips: Be A Man & Bet Like A Girl
Last thing! Please choose games with -130 vigorish or less.
Lets get this party started. :)
In order to make it easier to find games, can we post one game per message with the teams in bold & underlined at the top of the message?
Example:
"Philadelphia Phillies VS Chicago Cubs
I like the Cubs because blah blah blah blah . . ."
Sound good? It should make it easier to find information that way.
Lots of great insight in this thread! Quickly becoming the one stop shop for MLB information---a Google for the forum. I like the idea of everyone throwing down their favorite play(s) AND
reasoning, with everyone respectfully agreeing or disagreeing with
them. It'll probably make and save people a lot of money over the course
of a season.
Remember: Favorite Play(s) AND Reasoning!
Same
drill today.
Let's keep messages strictly about leans/picks/analysis and avoid "GL" type messages. Entertaining messages are welcome, too.
Getting tired of the MLB betting grind? Check out my latest Covers.com column: Sarah J. Phillips: Be A Man & Bet Like A Girl
Last thing! Please choose games with -130 vigorish or less.
Lets get this party started. :)
In order to make it easier to find games, can we post one game per message with the teams in bold & underlined at the top of the message?
Example:
"Philadelphia Phillies VS Chicago Cubs
I like the Cubs because blah blah blah blah . . ."
Sound good? It should make it easier to find information that way.
i like toronto as an underdog redsox will be tired traveling to toronto after therelate night game in ny only way they win is if its low scoring game 3-2 cause bostons bat will not be up tomorrow under is probably solid play unless toronto gets 8 runs tomorrow
i like toronto as an underdog redsox will be tired traveling to toronto after therelate night game in ny only way they win is if its low scoring game 3-2 cause bostons bat will not be up tomorrow under is probably solid play unless toronto gets 8 runs tomorrow
Roy has never beaten the cubbies, his last 3 starts although all wins, he hasn't pitched the greatest, maybe he gets lit up tomorrow? Zambrano last 3 starts he has pitched well, and well +200 is hard to pass up
Roy has never beaten the cubbies, his last 3 starts although all wins, he hasn't pitched the greatest, maybe he gets lit up tomorrow? Zambrano last 3 starts he has pitched well, and well +200 is hard to pass up
Sox still playing at time of post, won't get to their hotel in Toronto until 5-6 am or so maybe later, they will be tired, plus Jo-Jo seems to have turned it around, Boston shelled him last time out so he will be looking for a little revenge
Sox still playing at time of post, won't get to their hotel in Toronto until 5-6 am or so maybe later, they will be tired, plus Jo-Jo seems to have turned it around, Boston shelled him last time out so he will be looking for a little revenge
Mets ML tomorrow...I don't post plays often. Just play it..
Gee has been pitching well but im worried about the Mets on the road plus they still dont have David Wright. Good value for the Mets but the Under is the safest play here IMO
Mets ML tomorrow...I don't post plays often. Just play it..
Gee has been pitching well but im worried about the Mets on the road plus they still dont have David Wright. Good value for the Mets but the Under is the safest play here IMO
White Sox -145
(Welcome to the "fade the A's until they win" sweepstakes. They have
lost 10 in a row now. To put that into perspective, their last win was a
couple days before these amazing/intense NBA finals began, which seems
like forever ago. If they manage to break their streak with a pitcher
making his debut, so be it)
Diamondbacks +137
(They aren't supposed to win this one and Florida has the pitching
advantage. However, Saunders for the D-backs has won his last 3 starts
with a 2.57 ERA during that span. Florida has lost 8 in a row so like
the A's, I'm fading them until they win)
Giants -1.5 +170 (I love the value with this pick as Vogelsong has been a freaking beast this year and Wood has been average)
White Sox -145
(Welcome to the "fade the A's until they win" sweepstakes. They have
lost 10 in a row now. To put that into perspective, their last win was a
couple days before these amazing/intense NBA finals began, which seems
like forever ago. If they manage to break their streak with a pitcher
making his debut, so be it)
Diamondbacks +137
(They aren't supposed to win this one and Florida has the pitching
advantage. However, Saunders for the D-backs has won his last 3 starts
with a 2.57 ERA during that span. Florida has lost 8 in a row so like
the A's, I'm fading them until they win)
Giants -1.5 +170 (I love the value with this pick as Vogelsong has been a freaking beast this year and Wood has been average)
I'm not saying anything new bringing up METS (+105) V BUCOS (O/U @ 7.5) D.Gee 0.85 WHIP L3...Morton 2.25 ERA L3, PITT, 0-6 After being SO, McCutchen 0-6 Vs Gee. Which is the better bet? The Under? Mets ML? or both?
AZ V FLA (O/U @ 8) UNDER Both teams last 7 games Avg UNDER 3rpg. Saunders 2.57 ERA in L3...Florida no more then 5 runs in 11 games. If you have a better bet let me know.
I'm not saying anything new bringing up METS (+105) V BUCOS (O/U @ 7.5) D.Gee 0.85 WHIP L3...Morton 2.25 ERA L3, PITT, 0-6 After being SO, McCutchen 0-6 Vs Gee. Which is the better bet? The Under? Mets ML? or both?
AZ V FLA (O/U @ 8) UNDER Both teams last 7 games Avg UNDER 3rpg. Saunders 2.57 ERA in L3...Florida no more then 5 runs in 11 games. If you have a better bet let me know.
Loving this pick because Halladay had a solid outing his last time up and I think he will go all game today giving up 2 runs tops. Phillies bats have been struggling lately and only got a 3 run shot yesterday. I figure that this game will stay under. Any thoughts?
Loving this pick because Halladay had a solid outing his last time up and I think he will go all game today giving up 2 runs tops. Phillies bats have been struggling lately and only got a 3 run shot yesterday. I figure that this game will stay under. Any thoughts?
Typed and posted this in my thread, but figured id throw it in here too so we can talk about this game
After looking at a few things, here are some stats and numbers I found. Sort of leaning the O8 as well, maybe not as much TB ML as of now. Hellickson comes into today spotting a 7-3, 2.64 ERA. That alone is pretty impressive. What's even more impressive is that he is 6-1, 1.74 ERA over his last 7 starts, with his most recent outing coming against Seattle, in which he gave up 1 run, 3 hits, over 7 1/3 IP. Whats arguably even more impressive is that Hellickson has pitched 14 innings against Baltimore this season, giving up 0 runs; with I believe a 3-0, 0.45 ERA vs Baltimore for his career.
Arrieta also comes into today with a 7-3 record, sporting an ERA of 4.93. Last year, he was 0-1, 6.35 ERA vs Tampa Bay. On May 15th of this season, he gave up 2 runs, 4 hits, and 6 IP vs Tampa. The factor that has helpled him out in compiling a 7-3 record is that he has received 7.14 runs of support per 9 innings pitched.
Baltimore has won 9 of their last 11 @ home, but Markakis is 2 for 11 vs Hellickson.
Matt Joyce is 3 for 7 with 1 home run vs Arrieta.
Longoria has 3 home runs with a batting average of .370 @ Baltimore.
Typed and posted this in my thread, but figured id throw it in here too so we can talk about this game
After looking at a few things, here are some stats and numbers I found. Sort of leaning the O8 as well, maybe not as much TB ML as of now. Hellickson comes into today spotting a 7-3, 2.64 ERA. That alone is pretty impressive. What's even more impressive is that he is 6-1, 1.74 ERA over his last 7 starts, with his most recent outing coming against Seattle, in which he gave up 1 run, 3 hits, over 7 1/3 IP. Whats arguably even more impressive is that Hellickson has pitched 14 innings against Baltimore this season, giving up 0 runs; with I believe a 3-0, 0.45 ERA vs Baltimore for his career.
Arrieta also comes into today with a 7-3 record, sporting an ERA of 4.93. Last year, he was 0-1, 6.35 ERA vs Tampa Bay. On May 15th of this season, he gave up 2 runs, 4 hits, and 6 IP vs Tampa. The factor that has helpled him out in compiling a 7-3 record is that he has received 7.14 runs of support per 9 innings pitched.
Baltimore has won 9 of their last 11 @ home, but Markakis is 2 for 11 vs Hellickson.
Matt Joyce is 3 for 7 with 1 home run vs Arrieta.
Longoria has 3 home runs with a batting average of .370 @ Baltimore.
You want reasoning, Red Sox offense is facing Jo Jo Reyes...Nuff said.
But I'll go more in detail than that. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 road games and 22-8 in their last 30 games overall. They are also 9-0 in their last 9 vs left handed starters, yes that's right 9-0 and tonight's starter for Toronto is probably the worst lefty in the game today.....Buchholz is also 4-2 with a 1.69 ERA in Toronto lifetime.
You want reasoning, Red Sox offense is facing Jo Jo Reyes...Nuff said.
But I'll go more in detail than that. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 road games and 22-8 in their last 30 games overall. They are also 9-0 in their last 9 vs left handed starters, yes that's right 9-0 and tonight's starter for Toronto is probably the worst lefty in the game today.....Buchholz is also 4-2 with a 1.69 ERA in Toronto lifetime.
I read some stuff about taking Boston in the thread, but I think this is a no play because of the time Boston got into Toronto after the rain delay in NY.
Seems like there will be a better spot later in the series.
I read some stuff about taking Boston in the thread, but I think this is a no play because of the time Boston got into Toronto after the rain delay in NY.
Seems like there will be a better spot later in the series.
Just curious: What's the big deal with nothing over -130. You can lay -130, hit 56% and lose money. You can lay -135, hit 58% and make money. Odds are relative to probability, so what gives?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Just curious: What's the big deal with nothing over -130. You can lay -130, hit 56% and lose money. You can lay -135, hit 58% and make money. Odds are relative to probability, so what gives?
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