__________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago.
My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits.
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return.
Had 3 favorites on my card yesterday which resulted in a small profit. Hopefully today's card goes even better. Here's what I've got for the first four games:
Tigers @ Indians (+141)risking 0.83 to win 1.17
Nothing against Verlander as I've got him valued quite high. Even with Masterson's control issues, he strikeout rate (10.46) and mid 50's GB % mitigates Verlander's value a bit. The projections from the beginning of the year had the Indians offense ranked fairly high --- it sure seems like those should be scaled back a bit based on their start. Still trying the Tribe.
Orioles @ Twins
I've upgraded Liriano a bit to a 3.5 FIP but without Mauer, the Twins offense doesn't support a line this high IMO. Still debating whether I'll play this one - I'll wait to see lineups.
Marlins (-168) @ Nationals risking 1.26 to win 0.75
I normally don't find too much value in heavy favorites but I've got the Marlins with a high magnitude edge in pitching/defense/offense. The line is almost high enough to keep me away but not quite.
Giants @ Mets
Same story as the Marlins game except that this line is keeping me away. Maybe if lineups look better than expected for the Mets I'll jump on it.
I'll be back in awhile. Hope your Saturday is enjoyable and profitable.
__________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago.
My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits.
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return.
Had 3 favorites on my card yesterday which resulted in a small profit. Hopefully today's card goes even better. Here's what I've got for the first four games:
Tigers @ Indians (+141)risking 0.83 to win 1.17
Nothing against Verlander as I've got him valued quite high. Even with Masterson's control issues, he strikeout rate (10.46) and mid 50's GB % mitigates Verlander's value a bit. The projections from the beginning of the year had the Indians offense ranked fairly high --- it sure seems like those should be scaled back a bit based on their start. Still trying the Tribe.
Orioles @ Twins
I've upgraded Liriano a bit to a 3.5 FIP but without Mauer, the Twins offense doesn't support a line this high IMO. Still debating whether I'll play this one - I'll wait to see lineups.
Marlins (-168) @ Nationals risking 1.26 to win 0.75
I normally don't find too much value in heavy favorites but I've got the Marlins with a high magnitude edge in pitching/defense/offense. The line is almost high enough to keep me away but not quite.
Giants @ Mets
Same story as the Marlins game except that this line is keeping me away. Maybe if lineups look better than expected for the Mets I'll jump on it.
I'll be back in awhile. Hope your Saturday is enjoyable and profitable.
Both teams are a bit banged up but I actually have the Red Sox with the edge offensively. At to that the fact that the Red Sox were 2nd in baseball last year vs. LH's (.812) and are 3rd this year (.841) and its enough for me to money on the solid but less valuable pitcher.
Rays (-150) @ Athletics risking 1.20 to win 0.80
Based on projections I've got the A's as the side with value here. But it sure seems to me we've got enough evidence to suggest that Sheets isn't right. His K rate and BB rate are both at 4.75. Both more than 2 per 9 away from his career averages. Normally would just stay away but the Rays have been so good that I'm trying to sizable road fave.
Braves (+143) @ Phillies risking 0.83 to win 1.18
Not sure how long Medlen will go as they stretch him out but while he's in there I'd actually rather have him than Blanton. Although its only been relief (usually a fairly sizable downgrade in terms of FIP when shifting to starter) his 8.15 K/9 and 1.53 BB/9 are stellar.
I'll take a look at the late games this afternoon. Looks like its turning out to be a fairly sizable card.
Both teams are a bit banged up but I actually have the Red Sox with the edge offensively. At to that the fact that the Red Sox were 2nd in baseball last year vs. LH's (.812) and are 3rd this year (.841) and its enough for me to money on the solid but less valuable pitcher.
Rays (-150) @ Athletics risking 1.20 to win 0.80
Based on projections I've got the A's as the side with value here. But it sure seems to me we've got enough evidence to suggest that Sheets isn't right. His K rate and BB rate are both at 4.75. Both more than 2 per 9 away from his career averages. Normally would just stay away but the Rays have been so good that I'm trying to sizable road fave.
Braves (+143) @ Phillies risking 0.83 to win 1.18
Not sure how long Medlen will go as they stretch him out but while he's in there I'd actually rather have him than Blanton. Although its only been relief (usually a fairly sizable downgrade in terms of FIP when shifting to starter) his 8.15 K/9 and 1.53 BB/9 are stellar.
I'll take a look at the late games this afternoon. Looks like its turning out to be a fairly sizable card.
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