I use one formula to calculate what the moneyline should be. After the moneyline is calculated I look for abnormalities. These are usually teams way overpriced or underpriced. This let's me know if Vegas has set a soft line on purpose or has overpriced one team to avoid action on that side. After I find the games with mismatching lines I use a second formula to determine the teams chance of winning. I finally determine if their is an edge compared to the line I must pay and the teams chance of winning. The higher the line is the more chance I need of winning to breakeven or better. My formula's are derived from backtesting games with commonly available statistics. These games are not Locks or anything close to that. These are simply what my formulas come up with as plays. The different units are simply the games past results have shown to have the highest statistical advantage.
I do often have to pay high juice or play slight underdogs using these formula's for the NHL. I have found with past results that the line set by Vegas is sometimes heavily shaded to the side Vegas feels is most likely to win. Think about it like this. Doesn't Boston at +150 or more look tempting to you. NY Islanders at even money to beat a below average Tampa Bay team.
I use one formula to calculate what the moneyline should be. After the moneyline is calculated I look for abnormalities. These are usually teams way overpriced or underpriced. This let's me know if Vegas has set a soft line on purpose or has overpriced one team to avoid action on that side. After I find the games with mismatching lines I use a second formula to determine the teams chance of winning. I finally determine if their is an edge compared to the line I must pay and the teams chance of winning. The higher the line is the more chance I need of winning to breakeven or better. My formula's are derived from backtesting games with commonly available statistics. These games are not Locks or anything close to that. These are simply what my formulas come up with as plays. The different units are simply the games past results have shown to have the highest statistical advantage.
I do often have to pay high juice or play slight underdogs using these formula's for the NHL. I have found with past results that the line set by Vegas is sometimes heavily shaded to the side Vegas feels is most likely to win. Think about it like this. Doesn't Boston at +150 or more look tempting to you. NY Islanders at even money to beat a below average Tampa Bay team.
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