HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)
Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game
-- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site"
means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For
example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to
MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1
on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL,
round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley
Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical
series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on
theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2013.
HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)
Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game
-- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site"
means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For
example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to
MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1
on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL,
round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley
Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical
series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on
theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2013.
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWWL with site order HHVV (Los Angeles) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2014 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 85-4 (.955)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 9-0 (1.000)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 45-3 (.938)
series record, NHL only, Finals round: 3-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 65-24 (.730)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 6-3 (.667)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 36-12 (.750)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Finals round: 3-0 (1.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1248 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and
MLB series played through the 2014 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds. Note
in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a
particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding
winning fraction:
For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning
fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is
400-100 rather than 4-1.
SERIES NOTES:
After Game 4: The New York Rangers hosted and defeated the Los
Angeles Kings 2-goals-1 to reduce the Los Angeles Kings best-of-7
MLB/NBA/NHL series 1235 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7
MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Los Angeles Kings have a
series record of 5-0 and a Game 5 record of 2-3. When trailing a
best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New York Rangers
have a series record of 1-16 (with the sole victory occurring in their
last such series - series 1230 against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the
2014 NHL Quarterfinals) and a Game 5 record of 5-12. Series 1235 Game 4
becomes the eighth best-of-7 NHL Finals game to feature a goal order of
HHV, and the second best-of-7 NHL Finals Game 4 to do so (after Game 4
of the 1997 NHL Finals featuring the Philadelphia Flyers at the Detroit
Red Wings - a series swept by Detroit).
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWWL with site order HHVV (Los Angeles) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2014 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 85-4 (.955)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 9-0 (1.000)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 45-3 (.938)
series record, NHL only, Finals round: 3-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 65-24 (.730)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 6-3 (.667)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 36-12 (.750)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Finals round: 3-0 (1.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1248 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and
MLB series played through the 2014 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds. Note
in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a
particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding
winning fraction:
For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning
fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is
400-100 rather than 4-1.
SERIES NOTES:
After Game 4: The New York Rangers hosted and defeated the Los
Angeles Kings 2-goals-1 to reduce the Los Angeles Kings best-of-7
MLB/NBA/NHL series 1235 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7
MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Los Angeles Kings have a
series record of 5-0 and a Game 5 record of 2-3. When trailing a
best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New York Rangers
have a series record of 1-16 (with the sole victory occurring in their
last such series - series 1230 against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the
2014 NHL Quarterfinals) and a Game 5 record of 5-12. Series 1235 Game 4
becomes the eighth best-of-7 NHL Finals game to feature a goal order of
HHV, and the second best-of-7 NHL Finals Game 4 to do so (after Game 4
of the 1997 NHL Finals featuring the Philadelphia Flyers at the Detroit
Red Wings - a series swept by Detroit).
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