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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: saturday- with an invention
SHIFTYbook9 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/18/2012 6:09:30 PM
sorry for bringing my troubles onto you yesterday triple
we got so unlucky..

trying this new thing i thought of tonight .. has anyone ever done this?


all regulation bets

wash +145 2 units
tamp bay + 135 2 units
carolina+ 155 2 units
islanders+110 2 units
Dallas + 175 2 units
pheonix + 105 2 units
calgary + 165 2 units
Los angeles + 110 2 units

betting on both teams to win in regulation if they are plus money.. only draw back is OT's will cripple me.. ill check this out for a while it may work i have no idea
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Metallica2467
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#2
Posted: 2/18/2012 8:30:03 PM
GL Shift
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HockeyTeeth
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#3
Posted: 2/18/2012 8:39:08 PM
Uhhhhh did you do the math on this?
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#4
Posted: 2/19/2012 12:35:01 PM
yeah why hockey teeth
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HockeyTeeth
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#5
Posted: 2/19/2012 2:09:46 PM
Not sure how it would be profitable? Minimum 20% go to OT, 2 out of 10 bets cost you 4.4 units right off the top. So you are down to 8 bets of every ten to make your profit.  Not sure what ML favs are running at but its above 50%.  +115 Faves wont cover the loss on dogs. The favs on your list avg +115ML,  2.2u gets 2.30 return. Your out the 2.2 on the dog play plus the .2 vig. on the fave for 2.4 loss, a net loss of 0.1u for each fave win.

How many dogs and at what price do you have to hit to cover +115 avg fave wins? Or am I reading this wrong? 
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#6
Posted: 2/19/2012 2:47:42 PM
how am i playing vig with this method taking only games when both teams are PLUS money with regulation wins.. that was the idea behind this lol
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#7
Posted: 2/19/2012 2:50:40 PM
anyways it was just a trial to see how it went.. 4 games were bet on.. if none went to o.t., i would have made a pretty profit on the games yeterday.. but the one 0.t. cost me 4 units and went down about 2 units on the day ... i was figuring the chances of playing 4 games with one going to O.t. was less than 20 percent.. thats why i tried this strategy i will continue to run it for a week or to see if its good or bad
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HockeyTeeth
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#8
Posted: 2/19/2012 3:37:10 PM
Not juice, I mean "vig" the % bookmakers take on each and every bet.

Anyway, best of luck.
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#9
Posted: 2/19/2012 3:49:56 PM
i dont understand where your getting that - 4.4 from.. if that was the case i wouldnt try it... 2 teams going to o.t. would cost me straight 4 lol.. idk how YOUR bookie works but if i but 2 units on something thats +.. it only cost me 2 units....
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HockeyTeeth
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#10
Posted: 2/19/2012 3:52:42 PM
A $100 wager doesn't cost you $110?
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#11
Posted: 2/19/2012 3:54:30 PM
sat- .. minus 2 units
sundays -
2 units all

nj + 140
montreal + 140
ducks + 135
panthers+140
preds+120
stars+155
avs+150
jets+120
nucks+105
oilers+170
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#12
Posted: 2/19/2012 3:56:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HockeyTeeth:

A $100 wager doesn't cost you $110?


hockey teeth.. if i bet 100 dollars.. and the line is Plus + 130 ..  it cost me 100 dollars... if  i bet 100 and the line is - 110.. it costs me 110..

but thats why i stated --betting on both teams to win in regulation if they are plus money..

so for instance the ranger cbj is a NO play cus rangers are -
-150 in reg... only game COSTING me juice
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#13
Posted: 2/19/2012 11:12:23 PM
nj + 140+ 280
montreal + 140 - 200
ducks + 135+ 270
panthers+140- 200
preds+120+ 240
stars+155- 200
avs+150-200
jets+120+ 240
nucks+105.. im going to bed its 5-2 im saying this is + 210
oilers+170 and this is .. - 200if something drastic happens ill fix it tommorow

+ 13.6
- 10. + 3.6 on day..

sat and sun so far + 1.6
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HockeyTeeth
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#14
Posted: 2/19/2012 11:30:46 PM

My bad on dinging you for the 0.2 for fav wins, I was on the end of a 40hr stretch this aft, conked out watching the MTL gm. But you are out the additional 0.4 on two losses every OT gm, and 0.2 on one loss regardless of wether it is +/- ML. Those 4 burning bags represent a loss of 8.8 units don't they?

I hope you win making money at it, not trying to ride you. Best of luck. 

 

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#15
Posted: 2/19/2012 11:35:40 PM
haha hockeyteeth no i dont know how else to explain this to you...

4 burning bags would be 8 units lost-- if im betting 2 units a play.. when its plus money and it ends up a loss, i will lose 2 units..

your telling me than even when you take plus money, you lose -110? or whatever? its the same as a PL bet no? if you bet 100 on a puckline at + 220 or whatever and they dont win.. you lose the 100.. not 110 not 120 but 100 even.. correct?
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HockeyTeeth
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#16
Posted: 2/19/2012 11:47:53 PM

No I'm saying each bet will cost you 2.2 units at your book, each loss is calculated as 2.2 lost. Thats it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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SHIFTYbook9 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#17
Posted: 2/20/2012 12:05:18 AM
how does it cost that lol.. not my book man .. idk how your book is or whatever.. i use a local and its the only one ive ever used so maybe idk whats going on but if i bet 2 units on plus money and i lose , it only cost me 2 units.. idk what to tell ya man
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#18
Posted: 2/20/2012 2:01:32 AM
Betfair charges a commission on all winning bets, which is set at 5 percent of the net winnings for most markets, although according to how much a client wagers on the site, it is possible to reduce the amount of commission paid to as low as 2 percent(c)Wiki. That's probably the root of misunderstanding between you two.
GL with this system, please track.
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#19
Posted: 2/20/2012 12:20:16 PM
oh wow duelich, thats terrible.. with the amount of juice we pay for garbage already, they throw that garbage on you as well? darn that get a local.. and thanks for helping i had no idea
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#20
Posted: 2/20/2012 12:36:28 PM
Monday play

ottawa +140
isles+130
wash+130
carolina plus 140
2 units
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#21
Posted: 2/20/2012 3:33:46 PM
ottawa +140 + 280
isles+130- 200
wash+130 pend
carolina plus 140 pend

+ .8 unit so far
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#22
Posted: 2/20/2012 10:43:31 PM
carolina + 140 = 2.8 units
wash = - 2 units

+ 1.6 units on day..

up 3.2 since start not to impressed yet but ill keep tracking and see what happens by end of week
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