Thoughts on laying -200 M/L.....

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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Thoughts on laying -200 M/L.....
jw11 PM jw11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:03:45 PM

Tampa is playing their 3rd in 4...have lost 5 straight (4 of them by 2+goals)...played and lost yest in TB

WASH is rested and have won 5 in arow at home.

VERY small shot of WASH losing tonight.

If this were an NBA game and a team were such a prohibitve favorite...you'd have to lay -400 juice.

That's why I have no problem laying -200 in hockey on games of this nature.

daviddaman24 PM daviddaman24
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:07:10 PM
don't do it... -200 on a hockey game is just asking for trouble
jw11 PM jw11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:30:03 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by daviddaman24:

don't do it... -200 on a hockey game is just asking for trouble

 

why ?

I've done it successfully many time s this year...lost only a couple

 

Spartacus10 PM Spartacus10
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:46:43 PM
I think a much wiser wager would be Tampa Bay TT u2.5 (-114). The juice is much less and if Washington wins odds are TB doesn't score more than 2. This is most likely going to be a play for me so look for my write up and it will explain why.
Posted using a mobile device.
triplee2385 PM triplee2385
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:48:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by daviddaman24:

don't do it... -200 on a hockey game is just asking for trouble
i gotta disagree with you here buddy...on one account...faves are faves for a reason so alot of times if you pick the right fave it will hit...like the bruins for instance....in my opinion the only way laying -200 on a game is trouble is if its your thats your last 200
triplee2385 PM triplee2385
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:49:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jw11:

Tampa is playing their 3rd in 4...have lost 5 straight (4 of them by 2+goals)...played and lost yest in TB

WASH is rested and have won 5 in arow at home.

VERY small shot of WASH losing tonight.

If this were an NBA game and a team were such a prohibitve favorite...you'd have to lay -400 juice.

That's why I have no problem laying -200 in hockey on games of this nature.

i would probably take a look at tampa home record on a B2b after a loss...
BlazinJays PM BlazinJays
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Posted: 1/13/2012 12:53:15 PM
Tough call fellas we all know faves are faves for a reason but on numeriuos occasions we have gotten screwed by the heavy fave...

Wings last night almost lost as - 200 faves. I almost lost my garbage.. How many time has Nucks lost for us as heavy faves this year alone.. Like Triplee said you have to pick and choose the right time...

That being said im on the caps as well tonight..


dugdogg PM dugdogg
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Posted: 1/13/2012 1:56:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

I think a much wiser wager would be Tampa Bay TT u2.5 (-114). The juice is much less and if Washington wins odds are TB doesn't score more than 2. This is most likely going to be a play for me so look for my write up and it will explain why.


OUTSTANDING call...this is absolutely the way to play the game tonight if you are expecting the caps to win
jw11 PM jw11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 2:22:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

I think a much wiser wager would be Tampa Bay TT u2.5 (-114). The juice is much less and if Washington wins odds are TB doesn't score more than 2. This is most likely going to be a play for me so look for my write up and it will explain why.

 

I like that one...GL

jw11 PM jw11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 2:26:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BlazinJays:

Tough call fellas we all know faves are faves for a reason but on numeriuos occasions we have gotten screwed by the heavy fave...

Wings last night almost lost as - 200 faves. I almost lost my garbage.. How many time has Nucks lost for us as heavy faves this year alone.. Like Triplee said you have to pick and choose the right time...

That being said im on the caps as well tonight..


 

agree with you and triplee...

NO WAY can you just bet a -200 ...you have to study each game individually.

In this game in particular, TB is reeling and should have the tired legs...3rd game in 4 days...

WASH won L 5 at home and didnt play yest....

 

Lippsman PM Lippsman
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Posted: 1/13/2012 2:28:01 PM

-200, why don't you just donate your money to charity.  You can't lay juice like that.  If you like them so much then play the regulation or my favorite the -1 line.

Don't lay juice like that....ever.....

It's hard enough to win, much less having to winn almost 67% of your games to break even.

Personally I played the Caps -1 -112, not that's juice you can make a profit on.

buffalo11 PM buffalo11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 3:00:51 PM
caps tonight
jw11 PM jw11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 3:28:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

-200, why don't you just donate your money to charity.  You can't lay juice like that.  If you like them so much then play the regulation or my favorite the -1 line.

Don't lay juice like that....ever.....

It's hard enough to win, much less having to winn almost 67% of your games to break even.

Personally I played the Caps -1 -112, not that's juice you can make a profit on.

you've never layed 2-1 on a MLB game Lippsman ?

LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 1/13/2012 3:36:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jw11:

 

why ?

I've done it successfully many time s this year...lost only a couple

 

so WHY did you start the thread IF you already had your mind made up?

jw11 PM jw11
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Posted: 1/13/2012 3:53:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

so WHY did you start the thread IF you already had your mind made up?

 

Rink

Because all David said basicly was "don't do it".

I want to know WHY I shouldn't do it.

I started the thread because I wanted thoughts on laying -200....not "don't do it" type responses.

Good luck

jw

composite PM composite
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Posted: 1/13/2012 4:41:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jw11:

 

Rink

Because all David said basicly was "don't do it".

I want to know WHY I shouldn't do it.

I started the thread because I wanted thoughts on laying -200....not "don't do it" type responses.

Good luck

jw

It's simple. To win -200, you have to win more than 2 out of 3.  Do you think Caps will win more than 2 out of 3 times in this situation? Then play on the Caps.

 

docircho PM docircho
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Posted: 1/13/2012 4:46:31 PM

The objective in any gambling is to win money.  So if you feel there's no way Caps lose tonight, go ahead and pull the trigger.  However...

The most profittable sports for the bookies are in the order of NFL, NBA, CFB, CBB...   In these games, unless you play underdog moneylines, you have to pay the juice.  Very few hit over 60% consistently, and average gamblers hit 50% at best.  That means you'll be guaranteed to lose your money. 

Hockey and baseball are little different.  Bookies hate summers.   In hockey and baseball, you can play smart and eliminate the juice.  In NHL & MLB, you can hit less than 50% and yet you can win money.  Take that advantage.  Mathmatically, Boston is the best team now in terms of winning percentage and their winning percentage is 70%.  Second best team is NYR and their percentage is 65%.   If you played money lines in those top two teams, your winning percentage is above 65% but actually you'd have lost your money.  Play smart.  It's way too easy to lose your hard earned money.

TdotGS PM TdotGS
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Posted: 1/13/2012 4:52:23 PM
Take caps -1/2 in regulation -128
MojoGypson PM MojoGypson
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Posted: 1/13/2012 5:18:50 PM
agree with most here- play the team not the juice- if you like Caps to beat TB tonight under all known conditions than juice doesn't matter.

 If the juice is  a concern- wager another game.

Both of these teams have been flaky this year and lose games they should win. Don't trust TB or the caps.

I'm playing the Pens and Sabs

GL
HockeyTeeth PM HockeyTeeth
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Posted: 1/13/2012 5:39:54 PM
for what its worth overall caps r 6-12 as 200+ favs, 3-5 as 176 - 200 fav. havent checked how this breaks down H/R. personally i think caps win tonight.  
metalbill PM metalbill
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Posted: 1/13/2012 5:42:35 PM
if you lose a couple games@ -200 or more juice, you will be playing catch up for weeks man. -150, -170 is max for me. like Lippsman said, g.l. trying to clip at 67+ %.that being said, -190 on the caps tonight does look enticing. i suppose taking the big fav. once in awhile is o.k. but i wouldn't make a habit of it.
DetroitPinball PM DetroitPinball
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Posted: 1/13/2012 5:44:07 PM

-200   np   There is no chalk on a winning play.

Send-it

I have np with lines like that, to me, just risking one to win a half...simple. right ?

mrbigstuff2466 PM mrbigstuff2466
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Posted: 1/13/2012 6:03:39 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MojoGypson] agree with most here- play the team not the juice- if you like Caps to beat TB tonight under all known conditions than juice doesn't matter.

 If the juice is  a concern- wager another game.

That is the solution right there....If the juice scares you dont play!!! There will be another more appropriate wager for you to lay your money down on. 

I have only one question for you......Tampa bay  is 6-4 in their last 10 with Washington ....Why under any circumstances would you be willing to give -200 juice with Washington when they have lost 6 of their last 10 games against Tampa Bay? Personally, I would not touch Washington tonight with a 10 foot pole!
 
greengrocer PM greengrocer
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Posted: 1/13/2012 7:07:13 PM
i do it sometimes it is safer than spotting the puck and a half
HockeyTeeth PM HockeyTeeth
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Posted: 1/13/2012 7:25:14 PM
2 - 0 already, hope you didnt let "statspak" talk you out of it
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