Ok so first thing I did today was to look at this game and I found what I was looking for. Last game Memphis played I believed in them but that was just terrible. I thought they would step up and play well. I think Curry killed the game in the third Q with his insane 3's. He made 12 points with just some minutes left of that Q and Memphis was just one point behind. That just killed Grizzlies efforts of trying.
Now they really want to win and they are a 7 point favorite here. Well I will not touch that spread, if I do I like Portland here. 7 points is just too much for Memphis, thats what I believe. Portland won against Memphis at home last week with 115-96, almost 20 points more.
Memphis offense is terrible right now, they have the lowest average of all teams with 90.2 points. At home they average 87 points in 3 games. Well its not that many games but it stills indicate something. If you have been watching them its really a pain to the eyes when they go forward to do something.
If we take player for player and looking at their averages during this season and their career.
Allen: Average this season is 6.4 points. Career average is 8.08. This years FG%: 43.1% Career: 47.8%
Randolph: Average this season is 14.8 points. Career average is 17.07. This years FG%: 49.6% Career: 47.3%
Gasol: Average this season is 14.7 points. Career average is 14.1. This years FG%: 41% Career: 50.7%
Lee: Average this season is 9.4 points. Career average is 9.62. This years FG%: 34.9% Career: 44.8%
Conley: Average this season is 12.7 points. Career average is 13.38. This years FG%: 35.2% Career: 44.1%
We can see that 4 of 5 players have been doing pretty bad. The team have the worst % FG with 39.9%. But their 3P% is not better. They are worst in the league there too with their 25.77%. I find these numbers beyond OK.
Yes, they are playing Portland and their games are loaded with action but at the same time, its Memphis and their games are not loaded with any heat. They play defense, slow pace and poor shooting. Portland average is 103.9 points back and at away games that number is 102.75 points. So the line is around Portlands defense which is wrong.
When we look at both the matchup we can see that Memphis average is 95.8 points in their last 10 games at home against Portland. With this line, if we would get it every game since 1999, we would be 4-28-2. Ofc we would never get it but it show us how many times they have been doing 102 points or more against Portland during 16 years. And since they are really low right now with their offense, I think we have some great value right here.
I dont believe Memphis will do more than 95 points tonight.
Memphis TT under 102 points.