Have been doing some research and feel comfortable with this play.
Philly as we know is 0-3 and 0-3 ATS so far.
They average 83 points forward and 105.5 points back.
They have been poor from the field with just 36.1% which is the lowest in the league.
Cavs have been opening strong with two wins over Grizzlies away and Heat at home but lost the first game in Chicago with two points.
They have an average of 101 points forward and 88.3 points back and they are 44.7% from the field.
Cavs do look really strong and 76ers don't really have the power to stop them. However, I believe that the 76ers will not give Cavs an easy game. They will step up this game specially with that poor game vs Jazz at home.
Some trends and stats:
76ers:
- 57-28-3 ATS L88 games as an underdog of 11 or more points.
- 13-3 ATS L16 as an home dog of 11 or more points.
- 6-2 ATS in their L8 following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
- 11-3 ATS L14 when playing vs Cavs.
- 6-1 ATS L7 at home vs Cavs.
- 0-5 ATS L5 at home.
Cavs:
- 6-2 ATS L8 on the road.
- 7-3 ATS L10 vs team below .400.
- 1-4 ATS L5 vs team with a losing home record.
- 6-17 ATS L23 Monday games.
- 8-3 ATS L11 with 2 days rest.
Whats interesting is that Cavs have only won 6 of 36 last games with +13 points since April. And I don't count with pre-season.
2 of 16 away games since April.
76ers have lost with more than 13 points in 8 of 40 games since February.
At home it's 3 of 20 games since 10 February.
When we look at the matchup then 76ers have only lost once since April 1999 with more than 13 points. The record is 1 of last 36 games at home vs Cavs with one push. So 1-34-1 with a loss more than 13 points at home.
Overall both at home and away 76ers have been losing 5 games with more than 13 points in 68 games (2 push) since February 22 1999.
So 7.35% of all the games have Cavs been winning over 76ers with more than 13 points. The number is even smaller in Philly, which is just 2.7% of the games dating back to 1999.
I know that Cavs are the better team and have started the season good. They will win but I believe that 76ers will take advantage of home court and giving Cavs a hard game. Cavs will probably underestimate the 76ers a bit which is just good.
Now when I locked in my play, I got even a better number. Half a point more.
76ers +13.5