Sup gents, lousy slate, getting ready for a large card tomorrow. Going with two tonight, quite certain that will be it for me, doubt any props show up, but that is what I said yesterday and ended up playing three 1 unit prop plays so you just never know. Went 6-5 (SW = 3-3, PP = 3-2) and kept an ml parlay alive for a short gain of half a unit. Not really the full throttle analysis I like to provide, just some quick matchup/scheme thoughts on the two games tonight have been provided. As always gentlemen, I wish you the best of luck on your wagers tonight. Peace out - - - MAK --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mak's 2014/2015 NBA Season Investments
SW = 11.20% PP = 12.10% 2H = 10.25% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - 11.5 (-110) - - - Positional excellence in every aspect. The Grizzlies have such a dangerous playoff team because their core have been playing together for so long. Conley, Lee, Gasol, Z-Bo and Allen know what each likes to do on the floor. The addition of Jeff Green may not even be positively evident just yet, and yet, the Griz are still rolling and have proven that they are one of the best teams in the association. Marc Gasol is the closest thing I have ever seen to Arvydas Sabonis and that is high praise Mak since Sabonis is Mak's 2nd favorite big man of all time. What people still underestimate about Gasol is his inept ability to defend. He could be one of the best defending big men in the NBA but since he doesn't always get big highlight-reel blocks and does not have massive hops, he get's overlooked as one of the best 5 men defenders in the league, I assure you, he changes more shots than DeAndre The Giant Jordan because of his half court intelligence and bility to read sets and screen and rolls before they even occur. The Brook Lopez factor is off the table for me, I don't see how he get's over 21-25 pts tonight and that is the number I always look at when thinking about backing the Nets to be competitive in a game. Deron Williams has been woeful in his last two and tonight he may actually be guarded by Tony Allen if D Will plays the 2 spot along with Jack. At 6'5, Tony is small and quick enough to handle him, so even if D Will feels better tonight, the Deron factor...off the table. That leaves Joe Johnson and Jack. Jack will face one of the best PG defenders in the NBA and Conley may not lock him down completely, but his defense should ensure that Jack has an unproductive shooting night and has to work hard on the other end of the floor. Joe Johnson is no spring chicken, the guy has been averaging the most minutes in his career....that makes no sense at all. The guy has enough millage on him as it is and after logging almost 43 minutes last night vs the Bucks in which he all but guaranteed a win, he will be physically and emotionally drained. Tonight when capping I looked at teams that were going to be playing their last before this long all-star break. Some will want to really play well and finish strong before the break, some will just want to get the game over with and fly home or on vacation...The Nets want to leave Graceland as fast as possible, the 10 man Griz rotation will put them out of their misery early. 3.0 UNITS JASON "WHITE CHOCOLATE" WILLIAMS - - -
DETROIT PISTONS + 1.5 (-105) - - - It's basically offense vs defense tonight when the Pistons meet the Hornets. With the Gary Neal trade confirmed, I suspect the already thin Hornetsbench to be even thinner which is perfect because the Pistons lack any depth beyond Tolliver and Meeks. It will be those two guys vs Marvin and Lance and I think that the bench is not really going to be a factor tonight, though offensively I would lean towards D's two guys. In the backcourt Hendo and Roberts will square off vs D.J and K.C.P. No telling where Roberts mindset will be knowing that once Kemba returns and Mo Williams arrives, his playing time is gone like the wind, he could either come out and push hard and succeed or falter, or his mind will not be in it as this is the thanks he gets for playing well? Hendo will play great defense on Pope so I will chalk this backcourt battle up to a draw though I do think D.J will have a solid game tonight. Singler is more of an offensive weapon than Taylor, and Taylor's defense is a little suspect. The Hornets really will miss M.K.G tonight as he could literally defend 4 positions and his rebounding ability as well as scoring touch was a big reason why the Hornets were continuing to succeed. His defense was where it started, in the 5 games prior to Indy, they were the best defensive team in the NBA in those 5 games, by a mile. But M.K.G was the catalyst, his defense was game-changing and without it, the half court D is very different. Without Biyombo, M.K.G, you miss your two best half court defenders. Drummond and Monroe will outplay the frontcourt of Charlotte tonight, and even though Big Al will get his as he always does, he will not be able to single-handedly outscore the potent offense of Detroit. I still think this will be a relatively a low scoring affair, but D-Town will scrape out a victory in North Carolina tonight. 1.25 UNITS GLEN "THE SPECIALIST" RICE - - -
Sup gents, lousy slate, getting ready for a large card tomorrow. Going with two tonight, quite certain that will be it for me, doubt any props show up, but that is what I said yesterday and ended up playing three 1 unit prop plays so you just never know. Went 6-5 (SW = 3-3, PP = 3-2) and kept an ml parlay alive for a short gain of half a unit. Not really the full throttle analysis I like to provide, just some quick matchup/scheme thoughts on the two games tonight have been provided. As always gentlemen, I wish you the best of luck on your wagers tonight. Peace out - - - MAK --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mak's 2014/2015 NBA Season Investments
SW = 11.20% PP = 12.10% 2H = 10.25% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - 11.5 (-110) - - - Positional excellence in every aspect. The Grizzlies have such a dangerous playoff team because their core have been playing together for so long. Conley, Lee, Gasol, Z-Bo and Allen know what each likes to do on the floor. The addition of Jeff Green may not even be positively evident just yet, and yet, the Griz are still rolling and have proven that they are one of the best teams in the association. Marc Gasol is the closest thing I have ever seen to Arvydas Sabonis and that is high praise Mak since Sabonis is Mak's 2nd favorite big man of all time. What people still underestimate about Gasol is his inept ability to defend. He could be one of the best defending big men in the NBA but since he doesn't always get big highlight-reel blocks and does not have massive hops, he get's overlooked as one of the best 5 men defenders in the league, I assure you, he changes more shots than DeAndre The Giant Jordan because of his half court intelligence and bility to read sets and screen and rolls before they even occur. The Brook Lopez factor is off the table for me, I don't see how he get's over 21-25 pts tonight and that is the number I always look at when thinking about backing the Nets to be competitive in a game. Deron Williams has been woeful in his last two and tonight he may actually be guarded by Tony Allen if D Will plays the 2 spot along with Jack. At 6'5, Tony is small and quick enough to handle him, so even if D Will feels better tonight, the Deron factor...off the table. That leaves Joe Johnson and Jack. Jack will face one of the best PG defenders in the NBA and Conley may not lock him down completely, but his defense should ensure that Jack has an unproductive shooting night and has to work hard on the other end of the floor. Joe Johnson is no spring chicken, the guy has been averaging the most minutes in his career....that makes no sense at all. The guy has enough millage on him as it is and after logging almost 43 minutes last night vs the Bucks in which he all but guaranteed a win, he will be physically and emotionally drained. Tonight when capping I looked at teams that were going to be playing their last before this long all-star break. Some will want to really play well and finish strong before the break, some will just want to get the game over with and fly home or on vacation...The Nets want to leave Graceland as fast as possible, the 10 man Griz rotation will put them out of their misery early. 3.0 UNITS JASON "WHITE CHOCOLATE" WILLIAMS - - -
DETROIT PISTONS + 1.5 (-105) - - - It's basically offense vs defense tonight when the Pistons meet the Hornets. With the Gary Neal trade confirmed, I suspect the already thin Hornetsbench to be even thinner which is perfect because the Pistons lack any depth beyond Tolliver and Meeks. It will be those two guys vs Marvin and Lance and I think that the bench is not really going to be a factor tonight, though offensively I would lean towards D's two guys. In the backcourt Hendo and Roberts will square off vs D.J and K.C.P. No telling where Roberts mindset will be knowing that once Kemba returns and Mo Williams arrives, his playing time is gone like the wind, he could either come out and push hard and succeed or falter, or his mind will not be in it as this is the thanks he gets for playing well? Hendo will play great defense on Pope so I will chalk this backcourt battle up to a draw though I do think D.J will have a solid game tonight. Singler is more of an offensive weapon than Taylor, and Taylor's defense is a little suspect. The Hornets really will miss M.K.G tonight as he could literally defend 4 positions and his rebounding ability as well as scoring touch was a big reason why the Hornets were continuing to succeed. His defense was where it started, in the 5 games prior to Indy, they were the best defensive team in the NBA in those 5 games, by a mile. But M.K.G was the catalyst, his defense was game-changing and without it, the half court D is very different. Without Biyombo, M.K.G, you miss your two best half court defenders. Drummond and Monroe will outplay the frontcourt of Charlotte tonight, and even though Big Al will get his as he always does, he will not be able to single-handedly outscore the potent offense of Detroit. I still think this will be a relatively a low scoring affair, but D-Town will scrape out a victory in North Carolina tonight. 1.25 UNITS GLEN "THE SPECIALIST" RICE - - -
Err sorry guys, was reading my writeup back and realize I used the word inept to describe Marc Gasol's defensive skill which basically defines his defense as clumsy with no skill.....LOL. I think the word I was searching for was adept which still would not have been gramatically correct, though I doubt anyone except OCD Mak cares. Anyways,guess I am just out of practice since it has been a while since I have provided a writeup :}
By the way, anyone know why the line has jumped almost two full points the last hour? Obviously I am not complaining, happy and quite lucky to have gotten the line I wanted. But I see it at - 13.5 at some spots and just wondering if I am missing something, I like to have full knowledge of the matchups fo prop purposes so is there an injury or any news? I doubt anyone on Brooklyn would be sitting with a 10 day rest on the horizon but that is a big, quick line move. I guess sharp money in Vegas? Or an injury not yet known to the public. If anyone gets any info, post it in the thread please, appreciate it.
Err sorry guys, was reading my writeup back and realize I used the word inept to describe Marc Gasol's defensive skill which basically defines his defense as clumsy with no skill.....LOL. I think the word I was searching for was adept which still would not have been gramatically correct, though I doubt anyone except OCD Mak cares. Anyways,guess I am just out of practice since it has been a while since I have provided a writeup :}
By the way, anyone know why the line has jumped almost two full points the last hour? Obviously I am not complaining, happy and quite lucky to have gotten the line I wanted. But I see it at - 13.5 at some spots and just wondering if I am missing something, I like to have full knowledge of the matchups fo prop purposes so is there an injury or any news? I doubt anyone on Brooklyn would be sitting with a 10 day rest on the horizon but that is a big, quick line move. I guess sharp money in Vegas? Or an injury not yet known to the public. If anyone gets any info, post it in the thread please, appreciate it.
After your write up, I am really leaning under but the number is begging you to take the under which is what got me off it originally.
How do you know Mo Williams won't play ?
Yea not too sure about the total on that one, I suspect the Nets D to allow the Griz to score for sure, and I do like the team total of the Nets going under 89, but not enough to place any money on it.
As for Mo, am certain he won't. It just is too small a window to get everything finalized and considering that Mo Williams is like 94 years old and has just finished a back to back stint with Minny, I think even if he did get the physical completed, Hornets would still sit him out and have him watch the sets with a playbook in hand.
After your write up, I am really leaning under but the number is begging you to take the under which is what got me off it originally.
How do you know Mo Williams won't play ?
Yea not too sure about the total on that one, I suspect the Nets D to allow the Griz to score for sure, and I do like the team total of the Nets going under 89, but not enough to place any money on it.
As for Mo, am certain he won't. It just is too small a window to get everything finalized and considering that Mo Williams is like 94 years old and has just finished a back to back stint with Minny, I think even if he did get the physical completed, Hornets would still sit him out and have him watch the sets with a playbook in hand.
And what about Nets team total under 89 points, Mak?I've realized they are horrible on b2b since the new year begun...So let's see...
Jan 4: BKN 84 @ MIA 88 Jan 5: DAL 96 @ BKN 88
JAN 21: BKN 103 @ SAC 100 JAN 22: BKN 84 @ LAC 123
FEV 6: NYK 88 @ BKN 92 FEV 7: BKN 77 @ WAS 114
Last night JJ played 42 minutes and he's their biggest offensive "weapon". If Memphis plays a serious game tonight, not looking ahead at tomorrow's tough matchup, i can't see how a shorthanded team like the Nets can put a lot of points in this game...
And what about Nets team total under 89 points, Mak?I've realized they are horrible on b2b since the new year begun...So let's see...
Jan 4: BKN 84 @ MIA 88 Jan 5: DAL 96 @ BKN 88
JAN 21: BKN 103 @ SAC 100 JAN 22: BKN 84 @ LAC 123
FEV 6: NYK 88 @ BKN 92 FEV 7: BKN 77 @ WAS 114
Last night JJ played 42 minutes and he's their biggest offensive "weapon". If Memphis plays a serious game tonight, not looking ahead at tomorrow's tough matchup, i can't see how a shorthanded team like the Nets can put a lot of points in this game...
big thing for me on mem is their away game tomorow at OKC. im only offered 13 here so i'll likley pass. bol bud
Yea, I think that is on the minds of many and I did not address it in the writeup. Nice catch monstergrit. Here is my take on it. Mark and Zach only played 35 and 33 mins respectively in their recent defeat of the best team in basketball.
On average in back-to-back situations, they play about 37 minutes on the first of a b2b and 38 and the 2nd. So with a long rest coming up, I am certain that these numbers won't change. As long as Gasol, Z-Bo and Conley all play above 30. I think this will be a win in the 15-19 range....then again, I sure as hell thought the Warriors would destroy the 76ers last night and we all know what took place there :(
Good luck with your other wagers Grit. Thanks for your post and continued support buddy, appreciate it.
big thing for me on mem is their away game tomorow at OKC. im only offered 13 here so i'll likley pass. bol bud
Yea, I think that is on the minds of many and I did not address it in the writeup. Nice catch monstergrit. Here is my take on it. Mark and Zach only played 35 and 33 mins respectively in their recent defeat of the best team in basketball.
On average in back-to-back situations, they play about 37 minutes on the first of a b2b and 38 and the 2nd. So with a long rest coming up, I am certain that these numbers won't change. As long as Gasol, Z-Bo and Conley all play above 30. I think this will be a win in the 15-19 range....then again, I sure as hell thought the Warriors would destroy the 76ers last night and we all know what took place there :(
Good luck with your other wagers Grit. Thanks for your post and continued support buddy, appreciate it.
PHOENIX SUNS - 1.5 (-113) - - - 0.75 UNITS G.MONROE OVER 10 REB (-135) - - - 0.75 UNITS J.HARDEN OVER 8.5 FTM (-120) - - - 1.0 UNITS
Harden has averaged 17.5 attempts in his last two games, his last game vs the Suns he attempted 19. Phoenix is the 4th worst team in the league at fouling the opposition and they will send him to get points the easy way, not the "Harden" way.
PHOENIX SUNS - 1.5 (-113) - - - 0.75 UNITS G.MONROE OVER 10 REB (-135) - - - 0.75 UNITS J.HARDEN OVER 8.5 FTM (-120) - - - 1.0 UNITS
Harden has averaged 17.5 attempts in his last two games, his last game vs the Suns he attempted 19. Phoenix is the 4th worst team in the league at fouling the opposition and they will send him to get points the easy way, not the "Harden" way.
And what about Nets team total under 89 points, Mak?I've realized they are horrible on b2b since the new year begun...So let's see...
Jan 4: BKN 84 @ MIA 88 Jan 5: DAL 96 @ BKN 88
JAN 21: BKN 103 @ SAC 100 JAN 22: BKN 84 @ LAC 123
FEV 6: NYK 88 @ BKN 92 FEV 7: BKN 77 @ WAS 114
Last night JJ played 42 minutes and he's their biggest offensive "weapon". If Memphis plays a serious game tonight, not looking ahead at tomorrow's tough matchup, i can't see how a shorthanded team like the Nets can put a lot of points in this game...
Man I just love usable stats on my thread, yesterday someone came in
and provided some statistical analysis and today you come in with this
awesome information, could be the best on my thread this year Francis
Wade. This is what I want my thread to be, a playground for
information. As I stated above in one of my replies when asked about
the total, I said I really like the under team total for the Nets
against the Griz but not enough to put my money on it, well Wade, you
changed my mind, win or lose, love the info. Back to back hard fought
game against Milwaukee, travel to Graceland against a top 3 all around
defensive team from top to bottom even the bench....I don't see them
putting up too many points here either. Keep up the great work
FrancisWade.
And what about Nets team total under 89 points, Mak?I've realized they are horrible on b2b since the new year begun...So let's see...
Jan 4: BKN 84 @ MIA 88 Jan 5: DAL 96 @ BKN 88
JAN 21: BKN 103 @ SAC 100 JAN 22: BKN 84 @ LAC 123
FEV 6: NYK 88 @ BKN 92 FEV 7: BKN 77 @ WAS 114
Last night JJ played 42 minutes and he's their biggest offensive "weapon". If Memphis plays a serious game tonight, not looking ahead at tomorrow's tough matchup, i can't see how a shorthanded team like the Nets can put a lot of points in this game...
Man I just love usable stats on my thread, yesterday someone came in
and provided some statistical analysis and today you come in with this
awesome information, could be the best on my thread this year Francis
Wade. This is what I want my thread to be, a playground for
information. As I stated above in one of my replies when asked about
the total, I said I really like the under team total for the Nets
against the Griz but not enough to put my money on it, well Wade, you
changed my mind, win or lose, love the info. Back to back hard fought
game against Milwaukee, travel to Graceland against a top 3 all around
defensive team from top to bottom even the bench....I don't see them
putting up too many points here either. Keep up the great work
FrancisWade.
And what about Nets team total under 89 points, Mak?I've realized they are horrible on b2b since the new year begun...So let's see...
Jan 4: BKN 84 @ MIA 88 Jan 5: DAL 96 @ BKN 88
JAN 21: BKN 103 @ SAC 100 JAN 22: BKN 84 @ LAC 123
FEV 6: NYK 88 @ BKN 92 FEV 7: BKN 77 @ WAS 114
Last night JJ played 42 minutes and he's their biggest offensive "weapon". If Memphis plays a serious game tonight, not looking ahead at tomorrow's tough matchup, i can't see how a shorthanded team like the Nets can put a lot of points in this game...
Francis, on closer inspection you did miss a couple buddy. The back to back in Detroit, the home and home vs Washington and two others where the Nets did go over the total. I still think it is a play and worth a small wager, but be careful, do not go big on it.
And what about Nets team total under 89 points, Mak?I've realized they are horrible on b2b since the new year begun...So let's see...
Jan 4: BKN 84 @ MIA 88 Jan 5: DAL 96 @ BKN 88
JAN 21: BKN 103 @ SAC 100 JAN 22: BKN 84 @ LAC 123
FEV 6: NYK 88 @ BKN 92 FEV 7: BKN 77 @ WAS 114
Last night JJ played 42 minutes and he's their biggest offensive "weapon". If Memphis plays a serious game tonight, not looking ahead at tomorrow's tough matchup, i can't see how a shorthanded team like the Nets can put a lot of points in this game...
Francis, on closer inspection you did miss a couple buddy. The back to back in Detroit, the home and home vs Washington and two others where the Nets did go over the total. I still think it is a play and worth a small wager, but be careful, do not go big on it.
ADDED SW AND PP WAGERS + INCREASE J.HARDEN OVER 28.5 PTS (-135) - - - 0.75 UNITS BROOKLYN NETS UNDER 88.5 PTS (-110) - - - 0.50 UNITS
INCREASING SUNS WAGERS TO 1 UNIT - - -
Thanks everyone for your posts, it is appreciated. I am out for the night. Check you all tomorrow on the final day of capping in what will be a loooooong break for all of us who love the daily grind of capping NBA basketball. Peace out gents, have a good night.
ADDED SW AND PP WAGERS + INCREASE J.HARDEN OVER 28.5 PTS (-135) - - - 0.75 UNITS BROOKLYN NETS UNDER 88.5 PTS (-110) - - - 0.50 UNITS
INCREASING SUNS WAGERS TO 1 UNIT - - -
Thanks everyone for your posts, it is appreciated. I am out for the night. Check you all tomorrow on the final day of capping in what will be a loooooong break for all of us who love the daily grind of capping NBA basketball. Peace out gents, have a good night.
How's things buddy? I wanted to show you another stat i found which might blow your mind.
The Nuggets after scoring 90 points or less in their previous game since the start of the 2013 season are 0-17 S/U and 2-16 ATS. This hit last night when they played OKC because they scored less than 90 the game before. Just thought I would mention that. Obviously not a play today against them because they scored more than 90 last night but just a heads up buddy.
How's things buddy? I wanted to show you another stat i found which might blow your mind.
The Nuggets after scoring 90 points or less in their previous game since the start of the 2013 season are 0-17 S/U and 2-16 ATS. This hit last night when they played OKC because they scored less than 90 the game before. Just thought I would mention that. Obviously not a play today against them because they scored more than 90 last night but just a heads up buddy.
Mak, i ignores 2014 numbers because my biggest factors were Nets fatigue and Memphis defense. after January some teams, especially the older ones like the Nets, start feeling their legs tired on the second night after an hard-fought game on the night before and a travel (you know this better than me).
86 poente and this one was a winner, luckily (a small wager, i always make money management).
Let's move on for tonight's games, best of luck friend. Ah, and thanks for your assome workshop, we are always learning with each others.
Mak, i ignores 2014 numbers because my biggest factors were Nets fatigue and Memphis defense. after January some teams, especially the older ones like the Nets, start feeling their legs tired on the second night after an hard-fought game on the night before and a travel (you know this better than me).
86 poente and this one was a winner, luckily (a small wager, i always make money management).
Let's move on for tonight's games, best of luck friend. Ah, and thanks for your assome workshop, we are always learning with each others.
Wish I had checked in before tip last night Mak. I actually took my hornets early yesterday and thought about buying out when the trade was announced, but stuck with them. This game was not close after the break, and MKG being out was huge.
I do like Mo Williams coming over, but it's hardly a move that makes you notice how much Charlotte is committed to a playoff run.
Also can't figure out why Clifford took PJ Hairston out after he hit 4 shots from long range....
Wish I had checked in before tip last night Mak. I actually took my hornets early yesterday and thought about buying out when the trade was announced, but stuck with them. This game was not close after the break, and MKG being out was huge.
I do like Mo Williams coming over, but it's hardly a move that makes you notice how much Charlotte is committed to a playoff run.
Also can't figure out why Clifford took PJ Hairston out after he hit 4 shots from long range....
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