In NBA games, how many games do you go back when handicapping for a game? L10, L20, full season? aside from injuries, what's your opinion on this? For example, since the first of the month, handicapping tonight's game, I'd take GSW by about 4. If I were to take into account the whole season, then I'd take MEM by 1. Both games would be under 200 according to my numbers.
In NBA games, how many games do you go back when handicapping for a game? L10, L20, full season? aside from injuries, what's your opinion on this? For example, since the first of the month, handicapping tonight's game, I'd take GSW by about 4. If I were to take into account the whole season, then I'd take MEM by 1. Both games would be under 200 according to my numbers.
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I don't look back too far, maybe 2 to 4 games, or the length of the current home stand or road trip. Recency is far more important to me than overall body of work, although I do look at both.
I don't look back too far, maybe 2 to 4 games, or the length of the current home stand or road trip. Recency is far more important to me than overall body of work, although I do look at both.
it's a really good question and there is no right answer
generally want to sample the largest you can but you are still going to be a coin flip no matter how you look at it, you still have to decide how the stats will regress.
Think the total is high but it's justified because the biggest change to these two teams is Memphis's offensive efficiency. They are 4th this year as opposed to being around 10th last year. Probably due to Z being able to play a lot of minutes and the dev of the shooting guard pos and of course a different coach with diff philosophies
therefore I think this will be higher scoring than these teams typically play vs each other, esp with mem at home, i'd actually lean under in GS
GS wins tho imo
i took the over at 202.5 just because these two teams are so efficient offensively and it could go to the wire with fouls at the end but GS was actually better defensively than Mem both last year and this year. #1 in FG pct defense this year, fourth last year, the thing that is different is that Memphis has improved their offensive efficiency this year, possibly because Z is healthy
it's a really good question and there is no right answer
generally want to sample the largest you can but you are still going to be a coin flip no matter how you look at it, you still have to decide how the stats will regress.
Think the total is high but it's justified because the biggest change to these two teams is Memphis's offensive efficiency. They are 4th this year as opposed to being around 10th last year. Probably due to Z being able to play a lot of minutes and the dev of the shooting guard pos and of course a different coach with diff philosophies
therefore I think this will be higher scoring than these teams typically play vs each other, esp with mem at home, i'd actually lean under in GS
GS wins tho imo
i took the over at 202.5 just because these two teams are so efficient offensively and it could go to the wire with fouls at the end but GS was actually better defensively than Mem both last year and this year. #1 in FG pct defense this year, fourth last year, the thing that is different is that Memphis has improved their offensive efficiency this year, possibly because Z is healthy
you are actually totally right about the stats, if you go back to last year this total shouldn't be more than 193
i capped it based solely on this year because Memphis has a new coach Z is healthy and they have outside shooters that are improving
based on this years stats the line should be 203, there is a half pt of value imo and if it's close with fouls at the end then it goes over with a high scoring fourth
love the over here and putting multi units on it also taking GS ML
you are actually totally right about the stats, if you go back to last year this total shouldn't be more than 193
i capped it based solely on this year because Memphis has a new coach Z is healthy and they have outside shooters that are improving
based on this years stats the line should be 203, there is a half pt of value imo and if it's close with fouls at the end then it goes over with a high scoring fourth
love the over here and putting multi units on it also taking GS ML
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