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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: one [WIN] a day, let's all help each other and get [PAID]
tony2toes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 5/3/2013 5:18:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MakeAKilling:

Im lovin the OKC odds at +1. Tony are you going with OKC ML tonight?


5/3 Oklahoma City Thunder ML

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#77
Posted: 5/3/2013 5:36:55 PM
An important fact for you to understand, the books do not set the lines to predict the outcome of a game or who they think is going to win, the line is set to get the action in their favor, even action on both sides (or in their favor). Strictly business you don't care who wins the game, it's all about numbers and perception.
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#78
Posted: 5/3/2013 5:57:32 PM
Added note:

There will not be 4 game 7's on Sunday. Won't happen.

2 at the most, LA/Memphis & NY/Boston
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#79
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:07:35 PM
Hey Tony - Great stuff you are sharing.  Thx and GL tonight.  With you on OKC
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#80
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:08:45 PM
A good read for new or casual bettors

How the Point Spread is Made

A number of sports gamblers, both beginners and veterans, fail to understand the true meaning of the point spread and the thought process that goes behind the making of the spread for each game. The point spread isn't designed to be a true representation of how much better one team is than another, but is designed to attract an equal amount of money on both teams, so that the sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit.

Many times you may hear that the point spread is designed to create a case where half of the bettors choose one team and the other half of the bettors make wagers on the other. That's close, but it's not entirely correct, as not all sports bettors wager the same amount. If a sportsbook receives 50 bets on the Lakers for $110 each, but receives 50 bets on the Spurs for $330 each, the person creating the point spread (the oddsmaker) hasn't done a very good setting the point spread, even though the same number of bettors are betting on each team.

The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game.

One of the most famous stories involving the point spread occurred after Super Bowl III when the New York Jets, who were 18-point underdogs, upset the Baltimore Colts. A reporter asked oddsmaker Bob Martin if he was embarrassed about making that point spread, and Martin replied that was one of the best numbers he ever made because it split the betting money down the middle.

Because bettors risk $11 to win $10, any time the money is close to even on a particular game, the sportsbooks are happy because they guarantee a profit without any risk. If a sportsbook receives $33,000 in bets on Team A and $33,000 on Team B, they stand to make $3,000 regardless of who wins the game. Such a scenario doesn't happen nearly as often as the sportsbooks would like, but it will happen on occasion.

For a number of years, the point spread for the upcoming football games was released every Sunday night by the Stardust Race and Sportsbook and it was almost a circus-like atmosphere, as lottery numbers were drawn to get to see which bettors would have the first chance to bet into the unveiled point spread. The popularity of Internet sports gambling has taken away a lot of the thunder from the Las Vegas sportsbooks, and most sportsbooks now are content to follow the general point spreads of the other sportsbooks.

A sportsbook who varies its line too much from the consensus line of the other sportsbooks is likely to receive many wagers on the team offering the best odds, and puts itself in financial risk should that team happen to cover the point spread. If all of the sportsbooks had the Steelers as 7-point favorites over the Jets, but one sportsbook released a point spread of Pittsburgh -5, they would get a great amount of money wagered on the Steelers, and very little at all on the Jets, and sportsbooks do not like to be exposed to those type of situations where they can stand to lose a great deal of money.

The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog, but they do think the point spread will generate an equal amount of money wagered on both teams.
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#81
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:37:31 PM
Reminder: stick to one winning play a day and good things will happen.

Don't force the action if you don't feel it, trust yourself and do your research. Treat it like a job, you get what you put into it. Period.
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#82
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:42:26 PM
great advice tony
would up playing pacers ml for a one unit play and the over in griz
Bol to everyone and their plays
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#83
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:43:25 PM
griz have been scoring this whole series and expect the game to be up tempo...
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#84
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:51:30 PM
I love the Celtics plus 2 half, think its the game of the night, heading back to nyc for game 7
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#85
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:01:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tony2toes:



5/3 Oklahoma City Thunder ML

how much you risking on OKC
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#86
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:45:51 PM
So is okc the play? I laid off Indy hoping your forum came to a good consensus. Btw. Great job with the write ups and this forum !
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#87
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:53:01 PM
Good stuff Tony.. It makes good sense.  I used to do 1 play for $1K per day and won 21 days in a row.  Then when I loss a few, I lost control and doubling up & lost focus... Loss everything plus a lot of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ more.

Control is the key & treat it like a job.
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#88
Posted: 5/3/2013 8:37:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by spazbite:

So is okc the play? I laid off Indy hoping your forum came to a good consensus. Btw. Great job with the write ups and this forum !



5/3 Oklahoma City Thunder ML

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#89
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:53:37 PM
78-77 OKC up. This 4th quarter is gonna be crazy #panicattack #okc+1 #okclesgo
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#90
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:55:11 PM
Tony - Still think OKC comes thru tonight?  C'mon KD.
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#91
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:20:39 AM
Nice.  Make it 3-0.  Nice..

BTW, great info. Thanks for sharing again!
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#92
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:22:50 AM
OKC Bench was the difference #GoodCallTony #OKC+1  #$$$
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#93
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:28:42 AM
this guy is the smartest, most insightful and disciplined capper on these boards in my opinion.

Good job tony. 
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M0n3y2BMad3
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#94
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:30:55 AM
Brooklyn tomorrow !!
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#95
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:31:09 AM
Chicago is done believe me
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#96
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:42:10 AM
Nice call with OKC!  Glad I stayed away.  Took Pirates today and got lucky.   The over in LAC game was a soft one.  I will see what you have for tomorrow .
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#97
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:57:04 AM
2/2 for yesterday and today. Registered to say thanks very much Tony!
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#98
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:08:47 AM

Goodstuff tony...youre really teaching me a lot of things

Going back to the ball game...This kid Reggie Jackson fills up westbrooks's role decently... not bad... But what got my attention today is the Clipjoint trying to kill the griz....whew...Bloodbath!

Best matchup of 2013 playoffs locked down - MEM-OKC . . . MIA got one decent suitor this year . . .GO GRIZ!!!!!

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#99
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:30:04 AM
[3-0] so far, nice win tonight by Oklahoma City Thunder

Post your pick here along with your insight for Saturday's game.

The key is teamwork, let's all share some insight for tomorrow's
game and put it all together for a win.
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#100
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:40:44 AM
nice run starting up tony as i also had a couple other plays :)
thinking about the only game 7 from a very entertaining round one !!!
same as game 6 except nets are at home. nets are healthier but manage to win quite ugly. always feel as if the nets just don't play all out and very hard like Chicago does on every possession. nets should win but i am thinking the bulls and the 6.5 might be the play ???
just thinking out loud...
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