Looks easy after a couple blowouts over the weekend to lay the same number as before, doesn't it? Those two favorites are obviously head and shoulders better than their opponents as evidenced by the last game, making laying 5 pts an absolute lock, right?
Well, that warm fuzzy certainty that's all over the forum today around the favorites is about as authentic as most of the claimed wager sizes I see posted on here. Tonight, the public will give a little back after their profitable weekend as the road dogs bounce back and grind out a couple close ones.
Bulls +5
Memphis +6
Memphis / LAC u181
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Looks easy after a couple blowouts over the weekend to lay the same number as before, doesn't it? Those two favorites are obviously head and shoulders better than their opponents as evidenced by the last game, making laying 5 pts an absolute lock, right?
Well, that warm fuzzy certainty that's all over the forum today around the favorites is about as authentic as most of the claimed wager sizes I see posted on here. Tonight, the public will give a little back after their profitable weekend as the road dogs bounce back and grind out a couple close ones.
law of averages? all the favs been winning so now the dogs will win today?
nice frame of thought.
I obviously have my own reasons for the picks above (other than regression to the mean). The intro paragraph is only there to make fun of some of the garbage logic I read on here daily. Good luck to you if you're on the other side.
Quote Originally Posted by ATLGettinPaper:
I don't think you know how the NBA playoffs work, lol...
Well one thing I don't know is what on earth you're talking about... Why would playoff favorites disproportionately cover the spread? If there's a profitable system of blindly betting favorites in the playoffs it's news to me.
Look, I made great $$$ yesterday by playing 3 favorites. I'm just tired of reading people comments on how much of a guarantee their favorite picks are tonight based on a sample size of one prior matchup and the other game 1 playoff results.
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Quote Originally Posted by MONIESGANG:
law of averages? all the favs been winning so now the dogs will win today?
nice frame of thought.
I obviously have my own reasons for the picks above (other than regression to the mean). The intro paragraph is only there to make fun of some of the garbage logic I read on here daily. Good luck to you if you're on the other side.
Quote Originally Posted by ATLGettinPaper:
I don't think you know how the NBA playoffs work, lol...
Well one thing I don't know is what on earth you're talking about... Why would playoff favorites disproportionately cover the spread? If there's a profitable system of blindly betting favorites in the playoffs it's news to me.
Look, I made great $$$ yesterday by playing 3 favorites. I'm just tired of reading people comments on how much of a guarantee their favorite picks are tonight based on a sample size of one prior matchup and the other game 1 playoff results.
Winning home in playoffs is what good teams NEED to do! If you lose one at home the series changes completely. Teams know this and will try to avoid the 1-1 record going into the opponents arena. Good teams take care of business, clippers are one of those teams and if nets are as good as they have been playing they will win every game at home too.
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Winning home in playoffs is what good teams NEED to do! If you lose one at home the series changes completely. Teams know this and will try to avoid the 1-1 record going into the opponents arena. Good teams take care of business, clippers are one of those teams and if nets are as good as they have been playing they will win every game at home too.
Winning home in playoffs is what good teams NEED to do! If you lose one at home the series changes completely. Teams know this and will try to avoid the 1-1 record going into the opponents arena. Good teams take care of business, clippers are one of those teams and if nets are as good as they have been playing they will win every game at home too.
Yeah. No one is questioning how NBA playoffs schedules works and the general win pattern. You need to win your home games. That doesn't mean that road dogs will never cover the spread. Your opinion that the Clips and Nets are good enough teams to beat their opponents by high single-digits is just that -- your opinion. There are arguments both ways, including a counterargument that the Bulls own the season series with the Nets, and the Memphis game was a 1 pt ballgame early in the 4th.
If your handicapping strategy consists of "good teams take care of business", that seems a little oversimplified... and even then, it's dependent upon you picking the right good teams.
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Quote Originally Posted by SLEEEE:
Winning home in playoffs is what good teams NEED to do! If you lose one at home the series changes completely. Teams know this and will try to avoid the 1-1 record going into the opponents arena. Good teams take care of business, clippers are one of those teams and if nets are as good as they have been playing they will win every game at home too.
Yeah. No one is questioning how NBA playoffs schedules works and the general win pattern. You need to win your home games. That doesn't mean that road dogs will never cover the spread. Your opinion that the Clips and Nets are good enough teams to beat their opponents by high single-digits is just that -- your opinion. There are arguments both ways, including a counterargument that the Bulls own the season series with the Nets, and the Memphis game was a 1 pt ballgame early in the 4th.
If your handicapping strategy consists of "good teams take care of business", that seems a little oversimplified... and even then, it's dependent upon you picking the right good teams.
Interesting side note I just noticed, though -- ran the numbers back 10 years, excluding this year's great favorite run. Looks like home favorites (in any round of playoffs) have covered ATS 55% of the time. That's actually a profitable system.
Not changing my opinion of the games tonight (I've already bet 6 of 8 favorites so far this playoffs and I picked these two dogs selectively), but definitely interesting.
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Interesting side note I just noticed, though -- ran the numbers back 10 years, excluding this year's great favorite run. Looks like home favorites (in any round of playoffs) have covered ATS 55% of the time. That's actually a profitable system.
Not changing my opinion of the games tonight (I've already bet 6 of 8 favorites so far this playoffs and I picked these two dogs selectively), but definitely interesting.
Bulls need Noah to beast out to have a shot. He looks gimpy. Leaning Bulls not sure if I can pull the trigger. I see Clips winning a close one. Like the under as well. GL
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Bulls need Noah to beast out to have a shot. He looks gimpy. Leaning Bulls not sure if I can pull the trigger. I see Clips winning a close one. Like the under as well. GL
Looks easy after a couple blowouts over the weekend to lay the same number as before, doesn't it? Those two favorites are obviously head and shoulders better than their opponents as evidenced by the last game, making laying 5 pts an absolute lock, right?
Well, that warm fuzzy certainty that's all over the forum today around the favorites is about as authentic as most of the claimed wager sizes I see posted on here. Tonight, the public will give a little back after their profitable weekend as the road dogs bounce back and grind out a couple close ones.
Bulls +5
Memphis +6
Memphis / LAC u181
I took the bait pretty hard bro. Hook line and sinker. Was there any reason to taking the bulls and memphis today other than the "they are due" philosophy. I didnt expect another 20 point blowout but I did expect a single digit win from Brooklyn today.
Also i did expect a response from chicago but I expected it more in game 3 in chicago. Now that chicago has evened the series are you on brooklyn next game?
Congrats on your win dude, im pissed.
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Quote Originally Posted by IOFM3333:
Looks easy after a couple blowouts over the weekend to lay the same number as before, doesn't it? Those two favorites are obviously head and shoulders better than their opponents as evidenced by the last game, making laying 5 pts an absolute lock, right?
Well, that warm fuzzy certainty that's all over the forum today around the favorites is about as authentic as most of the claimed wager sizes I see posted on here. Tonight, the public will give a little back after their profitable weekend as the road dogs bounce back and grind out a couple close ones.
Bulls +5
Memphis +6
Memphis / LAC u181
I took the bait pretty hard bro. Hook line and sinker. Was there any reason to taking the bulls and memphis today other than the "they are due" philosophy. I didnt expect another 20 point blowout but I did expect a single digit win from Brooklyn today.
Also i did expect a response from chicago but I expected it more in game 3 in chicago. Now that chicago has evened the series are you on brooklyn next game?
Looks easy after a couple blowouts over the weekend to lay the same number as before, doesn't it? Those two favorites are obviously head and shoulders better than their opponents as evidenced by the last game, making laying 5 pts an absolute lock, right?
Well, that warm fuzzy certainty that's all over the forum today around the favorites is about as authentic as most of the claimed wager sizes I see posted on here. Tonight, the public will give a little back after their profitable weekend as the road dogs bounce back and grind out a couple close ones.
Bulls +5
Memphis +6
Memphis / LAC u181
You were dead on today buddy. So tell me honestly are you on memphis and bulls in game 3? I'm still betting brooklyn on the road they have a better road record than chicago. Plus I expect them to respond after the loss. similar to chicago's response in Game 2.
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Quote Originally Posted by IOFM3333:
Looks easy after a couple blowouts over the weekend to lay the same number as before, doesn't it? Those two favorites are obviously head and shoulders better than their opponents as evidenced by the last game, making laying 5 pts an absolute lock, right?
Well, that warm fuzzy certainty that's all over the forum today around the favorites is about as authentic as most of the claimed wager sizes I see posted on here. Tonight, the public will give a little back after their profitable weekend as the road dogs bounce back and grind out a couple close ones.
Bulls +5
Memphis +6
Memphis / LAC u181
You were dead on today buddy. So tell me honestly are you on memphis and bulls in game 3? I'm still betting brooklyn on the road they have a better road record than chicago. Plus I expect them to respond after the loss. similar to chicago's response in Game 2.
when it come to gamble we dont care one day u lucky next day u bad luck so some day u win some day u lose so by the end of the the bookies r winning i been bet on all kind of sports for the past 20 years
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when it come to gamble we dont care one day u lucky next day u bad luck so some day u win some day u lose so by the end of the the bookies r winning i been bet on all kind of sports for the past 20 years
You were dead on today buddy. So tell me honestly are you on memphis and bulls in game 3? I'm still betting brooklyn on the road they have a better road record than chicago. Plus I expect them to respond after the loss. similar to chicago's response in Game 2.
On the Bulls game last night, based on the fundamentals, I thought there was value in the 5 points. Plus, my hunch was that the Bulls would be fired up and have a bounce back game, much like others on the forum, plus a bet that Noah would have a more significant impact on this game. The Bulls own the regular season series with the Nets, including one win on the road and another cover/push on the road. Cover for this game was dependent upon a colder shooting night for the Nets relative to Game 1 and the Bulls keeping their D tight.Overall, Bulls covered 56% on the road this season, whereas the Nets were covering 41% at home this season. While the Nets were the hotter team heading into game 2, I expected the Bulls to keep this one close based on both the intangibles and team fundamentals. Didn't think the Bulls would pull away quite as strongly as they did, but nice to see them get the W. I think the Nets are still the stronger team and will win the series, and my early lean for Game 3 is Nets, but still have work to do on that one.
Memphis game was tougher. It didn't play out exactly as I expected (partially evidenced by the fact that my under didn't come through). Clippers defined the game pace more than I expected, but Memphis got them stuck in the half court just enough that their little run in the 4th got them the cover. Didn't expect to need that mini-comeback. For most of that game, the Clippers clearly looked the better team and deserved to win. Nowhere to go but down for Conley in game 3. If CP3 and Griffin have similar games in Game 3 or 4, they could definitely steal one in Memphis. Undecided for me so far on that one.
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Quote Originally Posted by Miami20062012:
You were dead on today buddy. So tell me honestly are you on memphis and bulls in game 3? I'm still betting brooklyn on the road they have a better road record than chicago. Plus I expect them to respond after the loss. similar to chicago's response in Game 2.
On the Bulls game last night, based on the fundamentals, I thought there was value in the 5 points. Plus, my hunch was that the Bulls would be fired up and have a bounce back game, much like others on the forum, plus a bet that Noah would have a more significant impact on this game. The Bulls own the regular season series with the Nets, including one win on the road and another cover/push on the road. Cover for this game was dependent upon a colder shooting night for the Nets relative to Game 1 and the Bulls keeping their D tight.Overall, Bulls covered 56% on the road this season, whereas the Nets were covering 41% at home this season. While the Nets were the hotter team heading into game 2, I expected the Bulls to keep this one close based on both the intangibles and team fundamentals. Didn't think the Bulls would pull away quite as strongly as they did, but nice to see them get the W. I think the Nets are still the stronger team and will win the series, and my early lean for Game 3 is Nets, but still have work to do on that one.
Memphis game was tougher. It didn't play out exactly as I expected (partially evidenced by the fact that my under didn't come through). Clippers defined the game pace more than I expected, but Memphis got them stuck in the half court just enough that their little run in the 4th got them the cover. Didn't expect to need that mini-comeback. For most of that game, the Clippers clearly looked the better team and deserved to win. Nowhere to go but down for Conley in game 3. If CP3 and Griffin have similar games in Game 3 or 4, they could definitely steal one in Memphis. Undecided for me so far on that one.
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