About to book DEN and MEM.
DEN: With Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler probable for tonights game, and the spread showing a decent amount of respect for New Orleans at home I feel comfortbale laying 7 points and taking the nuggets. In the areas that the Pelicans excel, the nuggets actually have the edge (rebounding/points in the paint). As the day goes on it looks more and more like Lawson will be back, which gives the Nuggets that boost they need to start covering spreads again. I LOVE Andre Miller leading that 2nd unit and its what separates the nuggets from a title pretender to contender. On top of that the Nug's own a 5-2-1 ATS record against the Hornets and after Coach Karl lit into them after the last few close calls I expect them to keep on Skywalking. Denver, the REAL Lob City !
About to book DEN and MEM.
DEN: With Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler probable for tonights game, and the spread showing a decent amount of respect for New Orleans at home I feel comfortbale laying 7 points and taking the nuggets. In the areas that the Pelicans excel, the nuggets actually have the edge (rebounding/points in the paint). As the day goes on it looks more and more like Lawson will be back, which gives the Nuggets that boost they need to start covering spreads again. I LOVE Andre Miller leading that 2nd unit and its what separates the nuggets from a title pretender to contender. On top of that the Nug's own a 5-2-1 ATS record against the Hornets and after Coach Karl lit into them after the last few close calls I expect them to keep on Skywalking. Denver, the REAL Lob City !
I'm going to play one more, either IND or LAL. Leaning LAL for the fact that the Lakers NEED this game more, and Kobe is the honey badger of the NBA "He dont care, he dont give a 'ish". Not to mention LA has owned this matchup, and are coming in as underdogs.
With the INDY game, all signs point to INDY. I think they'll win...but by like 3-4. They just dont cover in this spot. As unexplainable as it sounds, I'm going to lay off of fading ATL, as they might just pull the upset...somehow ATL covers 42% of the time, where as INDY only cover 50% at home. Not enough disparit to roll INDY with enough confidence to offset the units I'm going to play.
I'm going to play one more, either IND or LAL. Leaning LAL for the fact that the Lakers NEED this game more, and Kobe is the honey badger of the NBA "He dont care, he dont give a 'ish". Not to mention LA has owned this matchup, and are coming in as underdogs.
With the INDY game, all signs point to INDY. I think they'll win...but by like 3-4. They just dont cover in this spot. As unexplainable as it sounds, I'm going to lay off of fading ATL, as they might just pull the upset...somehow ATL covers 42% of the time, where as INDY only cover 50% at home. Not enough disparit to roll INDY with enough confidence to offset the units I'm going to play.
BOOKED 3/25/13 (109-78-4)
DEN -7: 300
MEM -3: 300
MIA -12.5: 150
LAL +1: 150
Looking to start the week off right. Going to need to click at around 80% if I'm going to hit my income goal for march of 5K.
I love all of these picks for a number of statistical and situational plays. My best days come with boards ripe for the picking on favorites, with a few underdogs in the mix (LAL in this position). DEN and MEM are pretty safe given the H2H matchups and the playoff push. MIA and LAL are motivated, and even if Steph Curry does play, if Pau Gasol can actually show up for the 4th quarter this should be all LAL every qtr. That MIA game should be over by halftime.
Remember with DEN and MEM...DEN is getting Lawson and Chandler back...New Orleans starting PG Vasquez is OUT!
Locked and loaded, tail and fade at your own risk. Any thoughts, comments, suggestions are always welcomed. Lets cook this book tonight!
...be wary of IND and Utah...fade alert on those games.
BOOKED 3/25/13 (109-78-4)
DEN -7: 300
MEM -3: 300
MIA -12.5: 150
LAL +1: 150
Looking to start the week off right. Going to need to click at around 80% if I'm going to hit my income goal for march of 5K.
I love all of these picks for a number of statistical and situational plays. My best days come with boards ripe for the picking on favorites, with a few underdogs in the mix (LAL in this position). DEN and MEM are pretty safe given the H2H matchups and the playoff push. MIA and LAL are motivated, and even if Steph Curry does play, if Pau Gasol can actually show up for the 4th quarter this should be all LAL every qtr. That MIA game should be over by halftime.
Remember with DEN and MEM...DEN is getting Lawson and Chandler back...New Orleans starting PG Vasquez is OUT!
Locked and loaded, tail and fade at your own risk. Any thoughts, comments, suggestions are always welcomed. Lets cook this book tonight!
...be wary of IND and Utah...fade alert on those games.
DEN, MIA and MEM
Best dogs on the planet, all my guy likes to do is watch hoops, serve as the best wingman ever, and scare would be robbers.
DEN, MIA and MEM
Best dogs on the planet, all my guy likes to do is watch hoops, serve as the best wingman ever, and scare would be robbers.
Fun fact: Tonights starting LAL line up is 0-6 (Kobe, Gasol, World Peace, Nash, Howard). That is PRE +.500 status, after that loss they just took on the chin...I dont expect a similar output. Playoff atmosphere game for the Lakeshow tonight, and if Gasol starts chunking bricks Jamison will be able to fill the gap and step right on in.
If Kobe's feeling it lakers are up 10 by the half and not looking back in the 3rd and 4th.
Fun fact: Tonights starting LAL line up is 0-6 (Kobe, Gasol, World Peace, Nash, Howard). That is PRE +.500 status, after that loss they just took on the chin...I dont expect a similar output. Playoff atmosphere game for the Lakeshow tonight, and if Gasol starts chunking bricks Jamison will be able to fill the gap and step right on in.
If Kobe's feeling it lakers are up 10 by the half and not looking back in the 3rd and 4th.
58% winning...over 10K in 2013...2800K in march (50 US currency units), systems stayed the same and I'm not changing it.
Throw the spreads out of the window...gun to your head you have to go 3-1 straight up and bet 1MIL you take New Orleans, Wizards, Magic and GS Warriors?
Probably not...now, if you dont think those 4 teams can win straight up, you're hoping that ALL 4 teams I'm fading tht all have some sort of injury to deal with to key players, and each of the 4 teams I'm taking are all playoff bound fighting for position... you think that they can get lucky and not lose by as much as odds makers are setting the bar? Good luck.
1 more thing, I'm taking THREE road favorites AND the Lakers at underdogs. Good luck my man, if you fade me and win out much respect to you. If you have a reason for why I should buy out/hedge my bets I'm all ears.
58% winning...over 10K in 2013...2800K in march (50 US currency units), systems stayed the same and I'm not changing it.
Throw the spreads out of the window...gun to your head you have to go 3-1 straight up and bet 1MIL you take New Orleans, Wizards, Magic and GS Warriors?
Probably not...now, if you dont think those 4 teams can win straight up, you're hoping that ALL 4 teams I'm fading tht all have some sort of injury to deal with to key players, and each of the 4 teams I'm taking are all playoff bound fighting for position... you think that they can get lucky and not lose by as much as odds makers are setting the bar? Good luck.
1 more thing, I'm taking THREE road favorites AND the Lakers at underdogs. Good luck my man, if you fade me and win out much respect to you. If you have a reason for why I should buy out/hedge my bets I'm all ears.
Respect
1. I see where you're coming from with MIA...but; on the 2 days of rest ORL is 4-6 ATS, MIA is 5-7 ATS on B2B's (40% vs.41.6% edge MIA).
^^^SOmething has to give...and I believe what will give is NOT MIA's insane, historic winning streak, I think they'll break out of the slump of losing to bad teams. Also, last time ORL kept it close their had leading scorer Afflalo, leading rebounder Vucevic too.
2. Hindsight 20/20 I agree with you that DEN has been overvalued of late, hitting +10 pt spreads against fairly competivie 76ers and Kings squads...WITHOUT Lawson and Chandler. Now, they hit the road only favored by 7 after getting chewed out...for winning shorthanded! I dont know how much value you give N.O. pg Vasquez..but he's out and so are his 9 assits per game. This give's DEN an exploited matchup where they already had a top to bottome Edge. Ty Lawson (full practice yesterday!) > Brian Roberts, Andre Miller > Terrell Harris.
If anything, this write up is proving more value for DEN and I might bump that up to 10 units on that play. BOL man, nothing but best wishes to the forum.
Respect
1. I see where you're coming from with MIA...but; on the 2 days of rest ORL is 4-6 ATS, MIA is 5-7 ATS on B2B's (40% vs.41.6% edge MIA).
^^^SOmething has to give...and I believe what will give is NOT MIA's insane, historic winning streak, I think they'll break out of the slump of losing to bad teams. Also, last time ORL kept it close their had leading scorer Afflalo, leading rebounder Vucevic too.
2. Hindsight 20/20 I agree with you that DEN has been overvalued of late, hitting +10 pt spreads against fairly competivie 76ers and Kings squads...WITHOUT Lawson and Chandler. Now, they hit the road only favored by 7 after getting chewed out...for winning shorthanded! I dont know how much value you give N.O. pg Vasquez..but he's out and so are his 9 assits per game. This give's DEN an exploited matchup where they already had a top to bottome Edge. Ty Lawson (full practice yesterday!) > Brian Roberts, Andre Miller > Terrell Harris.
If anything, this write up is proving more value for DEN and I might bump that up to 10 units on that play. BOL man, nothing but best wishes to the forum.
Mine sweeper...I'm seeing covers showing 54% on ORL and 46% on MIA. Wrong numbers? Links to the right one?
Doesn;t really matter, I've already pulled the trigger but I'd like to see if my statement is incorrect
Mine sweeper...I'm seeing covers showing 54% on ORL and 46% on MIA. Wrong numbers? Links to the right one?
Doesn;t really matter, I've already pulled the trigger but I'd like to see if my statement is incorrect
nevermind, I just checked the link minesweeper.
We shall see...I've made my case with neutral views on all the teams I'm backing. Lets see if it pans out and I cant cash out on my plays.
nevermind, I just checked the link minesweeper.
We shall see...I've made my case with neutral views on all the teams I'm backing. Lets see if it pans out and I cant cash out on my plays.
AJ Price out for sure, Ariza missing shoot arounds this morning due to illness, Beal still doubtful...it's going to take a heroic effort for Washington to win this game over Memphis by 5-7 points.
If they win, congratulations and keep my money Vegas...you saw something in the reserves and John Wall that I just dont see happening against one of the best road teams in the NBA. MEM gets shaky the last week, and everyone off the bandwagon.
AJ Price out for sure, Ariza missing shoot arounds this morning due to illness, Beal still doubtful...it's going to take a heroic effort for Washington to win this game over Memphis by 5-7 points.
If they win, congratulations and keep my money Vegas...you saw something in the reserves and John Wall that I just dont see happening against one of the best road teams in the NBA. MEM gets shaky the last week, and everyone off the bandwagon.
ADDING 3 game parlay
DEN -7/MIA -13/MEM -3: 100 to win 600
I figured I might as well try and get a little frisky and take 2 of last weeks units to get back the close losses I took FRI, SAT, and SUN.
If you got an extra two units to spare, I'd roll with this play, especially with the injuries N.O., ORL, and WAS have to deal with.
I'll leave the lakers out of this one....they somehow manage to blow it. I dont think they will tonight, but leaving them out gives me more confidence in my play...plus GS has no notable injuries (Curry says he's playing).
ADDING 3 game parlay
DEN -7/MIA -13/MEM -3: 100 to win 600
I figured I might as well try and get a little frisky and take 2 of last weeks units to get back the close losses I took FRI, SAT, and SUN.
If you got an extra two units to spare, I'd roll with this play, especially with the injuries N.O., ORL, and WAS have to deal with.
I'll leave the lakers out of this one....they somehow manage to blow it. I dont think they will tonight, but leaving them out gives me more confidence in my play...plus GS has no notable injuries (Curry says he's playing).
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