Bookies crunch numbers, I crunch team trends

Forum: NBA Betting Page 3 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Bookies crunch numbers, I crunch team trends
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/15/2013 7:08:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewsparks1977:

glad i was wrong about my Jazz. i don't bet against them because i never wan't them to loose. But we have 15 out of 20 home games coming up. Should be able to get some good home dog wins.

Also, i am going to watch them play live against okc in Febuary, but if its a good value line, i'll probably take okc, will see.


Utah are very good at home. I wouldn't bet against them at home anytime. Only for them if the spread is good or not at all.
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/16/2013 12:59:50 AM
Record today:

2-1 today


Record for the end of week 1:

9-5-1

Was a good week, up over $1000 for the week.
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/16/2013 1:21:20 AM
Chi -3.5 - Chicago are good defensively, especially on wing players so they should hold most of toronto's offense, lowry will cause trouble.

Brooklyn +4 - Brooklyn is rolling right now and Atlanta looks like they have no offensive plan. The worry here is that Atlanta got humiliated and so they may come back with a big win. I'm taking the risk with the 4+.

Hornets +8 - Boston struggles to beat teams by double digits. They have done it for 3 straight games against poor opposition. Hornets are playing well enough to win this game. Their youth and height on rebounds will give them the advantage.

Wizards +4.5 - Washington is better than their record suggests and the kings are worse than their record suggests. I think wizards will keep it close with their current momentum.

Memphis if the line is +7 or more - Rudy happy back and Manu out. That's at least +10 in Memphis's favour. Their height and Defense will trouble Parker and Duncan to score. 
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:37:53 PM
Memphis line is at +5.5 - i am still going to go for it because of rudy in and manu out.
7RINGS PM 7RINGS
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Posted: 1/17/2013 3:07:59 AM
2-3 TODAY FOR U
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/17/2013 5:53:01 PM
Yeah was a tough day all around. Not sure if anyone was up yesterday.

Record:

11-8-1



Today:

Bucks -1 - Ellis and Jennings will be too much trouble for Phoenix offensively. Bucks on a poor offensive night currently score as much as Phoenix on an average offensive night.







zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/17/2013 11:21:26 PM
Bucks got up.


Record today:

1-0


Record so far:

12-8-1 
lewsparks1977 PM lewsparks1977
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Posted: 1/17/2013 11:54:56 PM
been tailing you, keep it rolling. you should have jumped on the clippers with me
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/18/2013 6:52:18 PM
Cheers Lew! BOL!

Bets for today:

Indiana -4.5 - Indiana is more consistent than the rockets at the moment. Both teams match up well with indiana having a slight advantage at 4 of 5 starting positions. Plus they are a great home team.

Spurs -11.5 - GS without Curry on a back to back in Spurs country. Enough said.

Grizzlies -9.5 - Sacramento make most points through one-on-one play from their wings and from points in the paint. So they play right in the hands of the Grizzlies defense. With Rudy happy scoring again for the Grizzlies they should win by over 20 points.
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/18/2013 11:15:24 PM
2-1 today. Happy with that!

The spurs bench lost the over, they went 5-23.


Overall record:


14-9-1

Winning just over 60%.


It has been a tough week so far. Will look to improve the record to around 65% by the end of it.

BOL
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/19/2013 6:54:18 PM
Todays bets:


Spurs -3.5 - Atlanta with Josh Smith in the line up seem to be struggling offensively. His jumper is not hitting very well but he still insists on shooting his way back in to form. Spurs are solid and consistent at both ends.
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/19/2013 7:08:20 PM
GSW +5.5 - the offense of the warriors is unlikely to be slowed by the hornets defense. The game will really come down to the Hornets scoring over 95. I think it will be a close game so GSW at +5.5.

Wizards +12 - too big of a margin for the surging wizards. Chris Paul is a game time decision and I doubt they will risk him for a game they probably think they should win anyway. 
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/20/2013 5:58:32 AM
3-0 today!!!




Total record over 12 days:

17-9-1




ejnell_04 PM ejnell_04
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Posted: 1/20/2013 6:11:05 AM
Any picks for tonight? :)
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Kilog PM Kilog
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Posted: 1/20/2013 6:16:38 AM
Hey Zimpy, I've been reading on your betting strategy and I'm liking the qualitative analyses. I was wondering how you look at a game when players are missing? 

I'm definitely on this boat. Do you have picks for the games tomorrow? I hope I can wake up for the Lakers. 
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/20/2013 7:51:02 AM
Missing players can be tricky. It depends who it is and how important they are. Rudy happy and Luol Deng are extremely important for their teams offenses. Sometimes it's not obvious and I prefer to stay away from those games.

My system is just watching NBA, it's the only sport I follow.

Tomorrow's pick:

Dallas at Orlando if the line is -2.5 or less for Dallas - Dallas has an offense that wont be slowed by Orlando and Orlando will have to therefore keep up themselves. They can with hot shooting only so I'm betting against that.


Slim-Daddy PM Slim-Daddy
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Posted: 1/20/2013 9:17:02 AM
I like the thread--
Looking good
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zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/20/2013 4:49:47 PM
Cheers everyone! I write up my thoughts so you can decide if you agree or not and therefore choose to follow or not.

I tend to only bet on one in every three games because there are a lot of match-ups that aren't obvious (either teams are too similar or too erratic in play).


Today's pick:

Dallas -3.5 - I said only -2.5 or less but I still think it's worth it. Dallas will score 100 and this game will be about whether Orlando can keep up offensively.
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/20/2013 9:59:33 PM
Dallas! 

Record to date:

18-9-1
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:22:53 AM
Spurs -6.5 - Jrue allows opposition PG to score heavily, Tony Parker will dominate. Duncan is rested as well and will have too much class for philly bigs. Matt Bonner may have got his shooting form back. This will likely be a double-digit win.

Wolves +8 - Atlanta have 1 point guard and are bringing in a D-leaguer. Wolves were in similar positions but they still have rubio and barea at point. I don't see the hawks team beating anyone by double-digits att his point.

Brooklyn +4.5 - New York without Felton and suffering some jet lag from london may be caught out by brooklyn here. Deron has a distinct advantage here and should look to break the game open. 
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:04:33 PM
Record today so far:

1-0-1


Adding:

Lakers +1.5 - I haven't backed the Lakers once but I think this is the right time. Pau had a big game for his confidence. Kobe has shot 18-57 last 2 games and it's unlikely he'll be that bad again. Dwight was ejected the last game and will need to prove something to the team. If Deng does play then he will need to be a bit cautious with the hamstring injury and reinjury.


AweIN PM AweIN
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Posted: 1/21/2013 9:00:28 PM
I'm new to ur post nice record keep it up!
I love it when capper can beat the books. I'll be following ur post win or lose. GL
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/22/2013 12:06:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AweIN:

I'm new to ur post nice record keep it up!
I love it when capper can beat the books. I'll be following ur post win or lose. GL


Cheers! Rough day today though!
zimpy PM zimpy
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Posted: 1/22/2013 12:14:35 AM
Record today:

1-2-1

Lakers was a fail. They are an ordinary team indeed. Annoyed at myself for that. Pau played well again but I expected Kobe and Dwight to step up, which they did not.

Spurs was a surprise, I really thought they would've dominated. It looked that way early. I guess without Manu they miss that 2nd half punch.

Thought Timberwolves was a lock at 3 quarter time. But you can never plan for the D-league player to come in and have 14 points and 3 assists in the last quarter. Still better than a loss though.


Better tipping for tomorrow!


Record:

19-11-2
Trying2comeUP PM Trying2comeUP
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Posted: 1/22/2013 12:15:14 AM
Hey man I like the tread! You know your stuff, I've been getting hit this year and I Like you stats and you gains look solid. Expect me to bug you from hear on out hah. Good luck this week!
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