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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Greetings - Saturday Picks; First Post
CainMarko send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
CainMarko
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 23
Location: Ontario
#1
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:57:54 AM
Hello all.

First, a little about me before I start posting so you know where I'm coming from - literally and figuratively...
I'm from Toronto and support all their teams (Raptors, Jays, Leafs, Argos), but don't really follow the Argos. 

Fan of all sports and gamble on the following: 
Primary -NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, PGA 
Secondary - MMA, Tennis (Majors only), World Cup, Euro Cup Soccer

Why start posting now?
Mainly to keep track, stay disciplined, and receive constructive criticism on my picks. 

Why do I gamble?
It's fun, exciting, and makes watching the game so much more enjoyable. I don't "need" to gamble (and no one should ever "need" to), but it's a form of entertainment for me. Plus, who wouldn't want some extra cash?! Sports betting definitely beats lottery odds, which I still play now and then, so why the hell not. 

Money management
"Know your limit. Play within it." 
-Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG)

Considering we're all from different walks of life and have different views on what money is "worth", I'll be calculating my picks on a "unit" basis without assigning a dollar value. 

Biases
-Toronto teams: Only relevant one right now is Raptors, which have been playing a little better. Tend to stay away from them as they're so inconsistent. 
Side note, pumped for Jays upcoming season with all the trades and signings. Already have small wagers for them to win division and World Series! (Yes, I'm that excited) 

-NBA / NHL regular season: I find Western Conference teams usually beats Eastern Conference teams. 

-NBA: Winning by 10+ points is "a lot"; so is reaching 200 for Over/Under. 

-Almost always an "upset" per night, no matter what the stats say. 

-Not worth the juice if odds are lower than 1.50u for Money Line (ML). 

-"Hot" / "Cold" streak = 4+ consecutive wins / losses. 

Methods / "Strategies"
I'm not a number cruncher by any means. Mainly rely on gut. I like to think watching and following sports for a number of years has developed some sort of "sixth sense". Having said that, I do look at injuries, head-to-head history, and recent form. 

Personal Tendencies
-Found myself to be a sucker for "value" underdogs. I think I need to stick with the mentality that bookies are rich because they're "usually" right.

-Betting AGAINST "streaking" teams. Usually ask myself "will the streak end tonight given they are playing ABC team who they've performed x-y-z in recent meetings?"

Final Words
-If you're still reading, nice to "meet" you. 

-Wagering is your own damn choice - no reason to blame anyone else for losses but yourself. Sports betting is a hobby of mine, not my "job". 

-The only "good" bets are the ones that win. Can't take comfort in "close" picks. 

-Much respect to the regular posters. Ones I've tended to read are CMJohnson, CMM, khmerkid, LVTruck 

-Good luck to all!

*****

Leans for Saturday (ML hasn't been released, so will finalize later):

Favoured Pick
-LAC
-HOU

Underdog Pick
-MIL


quote
CainMarko send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
CainMarko
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 23
Location: Ontario
#2
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:50:41 PM
Finalized (YTD 0-0-0):

1U: HOU -4 to net 0.59U
1U: DAL -3 to net 0.57U

Parlay (YTD 0-0-0):

0.5U: BOS +8 and MIL +7 to net 0.71U


quote
basesloaded101
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basesloaded101
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Location: New York
#3
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:52:53 PM
LIKE LIPERS AND HOUTON BU I LIKE PACERS THEY PLAY RALLY GOOD AT HOME AND BUCKS ARENT EXACTLY ELITE
quote
CainMarko send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
CainMarko
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Posts: 23
Location: Ontario
#4
Posted: 1/5/2013 5:53:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by basesloaded101:

LIKE LIPERS AND HOUTON BU I LIKE PACERS THEY PLAY RALLY GOOD AT HOME AND BUCKS ARENT EXACTLY ELITE

I'm banking on MIL keeping it close as they've lost 3 straight. We'll see what happens!
quote
basesloaded101
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basesloaded101
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#5
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:45:47 PM
DONT BET AGAINST INDY AT HOME
quote
CainMarko send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
CainMarko
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Location: Ontario
#6
Posted: 1/6/2013 12:35:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by basesloaded101:

DONT BET AGAINST INDY AT HOME

Good call, but it was already too late for me. 
quote
CainMarko send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
CainMarko
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 23
Location: Ontario
#7
Posted: 1/6/2013 12:59:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CainMarko:

Finalized (YTD 0-0-0):

1U: HOU -4 to net 0.59U
1U: DAL -3 to net 0.57U

Parlay (YTD 0-0-0):

0.5U: BOS +8 and MIL +7 to net 0.71U



Saturday Recap

-0.09U with only HOU winning.

Straight bet YTD: 1-1-0
Parlay bet YTD: 0-1-0
quote
CainMarko send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
CainMarko
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 23
Location: Ontario
#8
Posted: 1/6/2013 1:45:17 AM
Correction

-0.91U
quote
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