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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Dallas/Washington line
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:45:20 AM
The Mavericks have experienced the unfortunate coincidence of having a rusty Dirk return while playing a brutal 6 game stretch against Miami, Memphis, OKC, SAx2 and Denver. All teams with a legitimate shot of going very deep in the playoffs.

So now they face the Wizards. Relief. 

Though the Wiz have played tougher at home and kept games close, I don't like the situation or the matchups for them tonight. Not to mention Dallas' motivation to get a W. 

I am not sure of Jordan Crawford's status, but except for center, I give the edge to Dallas at every other spot.
Collison has been playing better since Fisher's departure and matches up well, even if Crawford is playing. O.J. Mayo is much better than Beal or Temple. 
The frontcourt matchups could get ugly for the Wiz as Kaman, Carter, Dirk, Marion, Wright and Brand can all score and only Nene and Okafor are above average defenders.

The Wiz remain the worst offensive team in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, effective FG%, and ppg. They are the 2nd worst 3 pt. shooting team

I am on the Mavs -4. Good luck to all.

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#2
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:50:22 AM
I feel like I'll take this one too. 
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TRAIN69
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#3
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:10:49 PM
Would you lean U192 as well? 95-85 score seems about right.


mellow
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#4
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:20:51 PM
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#5
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:23:47 PM
gonna be adding this one myself.  bol mellow! 
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Posted: 1/1/2013 12:35:12 PM
I like Mavs and the UNDER too.  

Going to buy Collison's props too.  This kids is heading upwards while his stats are still fairly low.  
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Posted: 1/1/2013 12:45:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Would you lean U192 as well? 95-85 score seems about right.



mellow

The total is very tough for me to read, to be honest.

The Wiz have scored more than 94 points in only 6 of 30 games this year(in regulation). Their offense is just a mess. 
Dallas' offense has also been nightmarish with Dirk's return. I don't think Carlisle has figured out a smooth rotation yet. But will it matter tonight against a Wizards team that does not match up well, imo?

On the other hand, both teams are on the 1st leg of a B2B, so defense may be softer. The Wiz are 7-0 at or over this total, at home, against the top 15 teams in pace. Dallas is 3rd in pace. Also, the Mavs can be rather porous defensively and have given up 100 points in 20 of 31 games. Can the Wizards extremely crappy offense take advantage of a lenient Dallas D? If Crawford plays, it's possible.

It could go either way with the total. Too tough for me to make a lean, but good luck if you take the under Train.





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#8
Posted: 1/1/2013 1:17:03 PM
fantastic analysis.  i'm on new orleans and clips.  i believe crawford will play, according to the washington post article.  i only like to play two games mask.  i had a huge lean on washington; cause they have played well yesterday.  and your right washington has a decided edge at center.  your point about the rough dallas schedule was insightful.  the only caveat is dallas hasn't even shown up in these past two games.  i like washington, but am laying off.  good luck.  dallas might be like boston-- AS BAD AS THEY APPEAR!!!!  no kidd, no barea, no chandler, no deshawn.  they got dirk, marion and beaubois.  they're not dallas.  they're an amalgamation of veterans on the downside.  but this game will tell us if they're anywhere near above average.  boston had trouble in washington.  nene is a beast at present; and it appears that he's lit a fire under seraphin.  garret temple could be an amazing signing.  i look forward to this one.  and for your sake, i hope dallas wins by 25.
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#9
Posted: 1/1/2013 2:48:13 PM
Adding some more at -3.5. 


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Posted: 1/1/2013 3:35:59 PM
Wiz
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Posted: 1/1/2013 3:39:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShareMyPicks:

Wiz



Thanks for your spectacular analysis.

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#12
Posted: 1/1/2013 3:46:24 PM
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#13
Posted: 1/1/2013 3:53:37 PM
I have no faith in the Wiz nation, and their potential to put anything together like a winning streak.  Based on the above comments and local info, I am taking the under, feel the Wiz might up for this game, and will cover, but find another way to lose.  Just a gut feeling.
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#14
Posted: 1/1/2013 3:56:06 PM
Like anybody else to parlay with the Mavs ML?
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#15
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:00:53 PM
hi wolfy my book is offering line at mavs -4.5

what do u think?

BOL to you today and happy new year!
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#16
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:01:38 PM
square, trap play along with atlanta
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Posted: 1/1/2013 4:04:24 PM
Currently passing.  Situational analysis with Dallas facing Miami tomorrow argues Dallas but trend analysis points to Washington.  GL
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Posted: 1/1/2013 4:05:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Like anybody else to parlay with the Mavs ML?

Lakers.
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Posted: 1/1/2013 4:06:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by manutdfctts9899:

hi wolfy my book is offering line at mavs -4.5

what do u think?

BOL to you today and happy new year!

I would still take it. As always, manage your money well. GL.

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Posted: 1/1/2013 4:07:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

square, trap play along with atlanta

Could be. 

The obvious talent difference between these 2 squads is not a trap though.


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#21
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:09:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

square, trap play along with atlanta




Thinking like that is why you will never win.
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Posted: 1/1/2013 4:11:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tuck321:

Currently passing.  Situational analysis with Dallas facing Miami tomorrow argues Dallas but trend analysis points to Washington.  GL

I believe a win tonight is more important for Dallas as they likely are cognizant they have little chance of victory tomorrow. Just get back some rhythm. No one better to do it against than the Wiz.
 
Possibly being on a 8 game losing streak, after tomorrow, could make Cuban do something drastic. 

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Posted: 1/1/2013 4:14:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:


I would still take it. As always, manage your money well. GL.

yes, thats my new yr resolution- hoping to get back all the money lost. keep my fingers crossed
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#24
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:22:18 PM
MAVS and under 202 in lakers game. Parlay
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#25
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:25:43 PM
LOVE THE MAVS BUT THEY BETTER NOT WIN BY 1-3 PTS
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