Messages

Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 2 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: RussellK's One Play a Day (4-1 last week)
Rana828
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Rana828
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 696
Location: New York
#26
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:14:54 PM
BOL
quote
mlgneo send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mlgneo
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 170
Location:
#27
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:21:36 PM
RK I really like your logic. I have been back and forth all day with under plays but have kept Dallas in my mind. With your write up it gave me confidence in mayo and the mavs. Let's get this Guys!
quote
KC4U2ENVY send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KC4U2ENVY
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 303
Location:
#28
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:31:28 PM
Good Luck Russell! 

Awesome analysis!
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#29
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:31:29 PM
cash, pet, smash, dig, anya. TJ   
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#30
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:32:10 PM
rana, mig, kc   
quote
Baby_BA
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Baby_BA
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 16530
Location: Massachusetts
#31
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:34:51 PM
BOL  
quote
wildhooks88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
wildhooks88
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 784
Location: Nevada
#32
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:57:17 PM

Dallas one of my favorite games here as well.  Love them on a teaser with okc or boston:)

 

quote
ldub004 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ldub004
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 2669
Location: Minnesota
#33
Posted: 11/12/2012 6:33:21 PM
Russel, really like Ur approach.. I live in Minny & am a big Wolves fan, but this is a great spot to back the Mavs.. Wolves being as banged up as they are still have depth surprisingly.. not having Rubio & Love obviously hasnt hurt them to this point, but missing Roy, Buddinger & Barrea is going to be very tough for the t'pups... Without those 3 they still have AK, d-wil, pek & other key contributors like Dante Cunningham & ridnour, but missing 5 important pieces to your roster makes it hard to compete In this league..

Chase has really been playing well & JJ has been a huge spark for the wolves off the bench. I was at the opener where he single handedly beat the kings & they will for sure miss him. Mayo & the Mavs should blow my team out tonight.

I have a couple questions about your approach & hopefully you have some time to answer...

- what % of your BR do you play on each play?
- does your season always start the 2nd week of the NBA season or do you start your approach the beginning of the NFL season? If you start during NFL how do you go about your 1 play per day approach? Do you have a point of the year when you decide to stop? I realized you said you don't play MLB so guessing you probably take the summer off.

What is your target goal to be up at the end of the year?

I really like your approach & interested to hear your answers to these questions if you have time. Thanks!!

GL tonight Russel!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#34
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:10:36 PM
Baby, wild   
quote
Rainmaker626 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Rainmaker626
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 241
Location:
#35
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:17:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RussellK:

Ok, here are my thoughts on these games:

Milwaukee - Philly seems to be a no-brainer....coming home after winning all 3 games on their road trip, being a dog in each one.....and now at home they are only 4 point favorites against Milwaukee? Seems fishy to me.....I am always wary of teams coming off successful road trips because that 1st game back home is a classic letdown spot....I wouldn't be surprised to see the bucks win this game....however with other games to choose from fading a hot team is something I will pass on

Toronto - I can't really back them until they exhibit some measure of consistency, but I would be careful about backing Utah tonight....like so many teams, they are very different home and away, and the Raps have a tendency to bite you when you least expect it....maybe this is the homer in me talking, but I feel like they win this one...however, it's a pass

Detroit - similar to above, I can't back the Pistons, but I would be hesitant about OKC....Pistons hung around enough to push when these teams played a few days ago in OKC, and I can see this game being close as well.....Detroit is a young team, but no one likes to be winless....its just this sort of game where they earn their 1st win and you're left saying, "huh....I did not see that one coming"

Houston - I'm not sure why everyone seems to think the Heat will bounce back after yesterday's bad loss in Memphis....Rockets are a great team, Harden is a beast, they just earned their 1st win at home and they will want to keep the momentum going....Heat are the better team on paper, no doubt, but Lebron and Wade are banged up and back to back road games in the NBA are tough, no matter who you are....5-6 points seems way to much when I feel like the dog can easily win outright.....really like this play and it almost made the cut

Phoenix - I like this new look Phoenix team, they can surprised this season....Nuggets on a 4 game winning streak, coming off a big double OT win in GS.....good fade spot on a team that typically does not play well on the road....however as with Philly, I'd rather not fade a hot team, though I do really like this play

But in the end, I have decided to go with:
Dallas - I just can't see how Minny competes in this game....besides not having Love and Rubio, they just lost Budinger, Barea and Roy.....Dallas still without Dirk and Marion, but Mayo is killing it, and overall they are a much better team....add in home court and its difficult to imagine Mavs not winning by double digits

Dallas -6 (bought the hook, -120)
$1200 to win $1000

BOL to all   



Wow. How much is your overall bankroll? I thought I was balling with $220 per game
quote
manutdfctts9899 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
manutdfctts9899
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 11318
Location:
#36
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:18:37 PM
BOL guys 
quote
djitow send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
djitow
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 856
Location: California
#37
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:21:02 PM
Detroit 
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#38
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:25:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ldub004:

 

I have a couple questions about your approach & hopefully you have some time to answer...

- what % of your BR do you play on each play?
- does your season always start the 2nd week of the NBA season or do you start your approach the beginning of the NFL season? If you start during NFL how do you go about your 1 play per day approach? Do you have a point of the year when you decide to stop? I realized you said you don't play MLB so guessing you probably take the summer off.

What is your target goal to be up at the end of the year?

I really like your approach & interested to hear your answers to these questions if you have time. Thanks!!

GL tonight Russel!


idub....glad to hear consensus from a minny fan....I'll try to answer all your questions:

My bankroll is $20,000, so each bet is 5% which seems a bit high, but in reality how I determined $20,000 was that the most I can lose in a week is $4000, so my bankroll allows me up to 5 consecutive weeks of max losses, and if that happens then it's time to quit anyway, regardless of whether you still have money or not...

I love NFL but I can't really start my system until NBA season starts because I don't do baseball and there is no way to get in a play every day without it. So before NBA I just make plays on NFL but not within any kind of system (though almost never more then 1 play a day). I will continue with this system into the 2nd round of NBA playoffs...after that there are too few games to choose from....and yes, summers off...baseball sucks....

I have no specific target, I just want to win more then I lose (doesn't everyone    )

Thanks for your comments and questions   


quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#39
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:27:08 PM
manut, dj   


quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#40
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:30:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rainmaker626:




Wow. How much is your overall bankroll? I thought I was balling with $220 per game

Its not about ballin...its about playing within your limits and understanding money management.....and dude, a $200 unit is well above the average....so don't try to compete....its like golf....you're not playing against your playing partner, you're playing against the course, but most of all, you're playing against yourself   
quote
lewis69692003 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
lewis69692003
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 64
Location: Alabama
#41
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:36:58 PM

Alrighty Russ it's time to get this I hope the streak continues

 Also I have 1 other capper I follow who as been hot if anyone is interested.

Portland U 195

Chicago O 184

GL everyone!!

quote
Rainmaker626 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Rainmaker626
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 241
Location:
#42
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:43:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RussellK:


Its not about ballin...its about playing within your limits and understanding money management.....and dude, a $200 unit is well above the average....so don't try to compete....its like golf....you're not playing against your playing partner, you're playing against the course, but most of all, you're playing against yourself   


Thanks for answering..  I have a 10K bankroll (actually 11) but only see it as a 10K. I like even numbers.. 
I use a similar approach and bet like 220 per game just to be able to handle losing streaks.. 
Like you, I have something similar in which if I'm at 60% or better making a min of 21 plays, I stop..   Chalk it up to discipline and money management..  I day trade stocks so I learned my lesson a long time ago..

Anyways.. BOL of luck.. I'm also on the Mavs side..
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#43
Posted: 11/12/2012 7:59:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rainmaker626:



Thanks for answering..  I have a 10K bankroll (actually 11) but only see it as a 10K. I like even numbers.. 
I use a similar approach and bet like 220 per game just to be able to handle losing streaks.. 
Like you, I have something similar in which if I'm at 60% or better making a min of 21 plays, I stop..   Chalk it up to discipline and money management..  I day trade stocks so I learned my lesson a long time ago..

Anyways.. BOL of luck.. I'm also on the Mavs side..


Holy crap, day trading....I don't have the stomach for that....I think I'll stick to something safe....like betting on sports   
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#44
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:23:12 PM
Dallas off to a rough start, while all the dogs I liked are looking great......I hope it's not one of this nights......
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
manutdfctts9899 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
manutdfctts9899
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 11318
Location:
#45
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:27:59 PM
BOL guys!
quote
tiedup2night send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tiedup2night
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 3273
Location:
#46
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:48:11 PM
i will be blindly tailing you-- as i need nba action but cannot cap pro hoops for shite and 1 per day will be great as i am decent with college and nfl--- so good luck from philly!!!!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
lewis69692003 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
lewis69692003
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 64
Location: Alabama
#47
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:27:08 PM
I got lucky and played 3 of your other pics and went 3-1
quote
TheLeaguesOwn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheLeaguesOwn
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 325
Location: New York
#48
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:45:24 PM
SHould've went with my gut and took DET and HOU

oh well

Let's pick it up tomorrow!!!
quote
CappaCappGirla send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CappaCappGirla
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 180
Location:
#49
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:06:27 AM
ouch
quote
RussellK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
RussellK
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 506
Location: Ontario
#50
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:24:24 AM
Sorry guys, that was just terrible.....not sure what happened to the Mavs tonight, but whatever it was, it was ugly.....and the other plays that almost made the cut, Milwaukee, Houston and Phoenix, all won....oh well, I hate starting the week with a loss, but it happens....I had a good sense of the action tonight, but I just settled on the wrong play....hopefully I get the week heading in the right direction tomorrow   

Week 1: 4-1 +2900   
Week 2: 0-1 -$1200   
quote
Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 2 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.