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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Conference Finals Breakdown with past history..............................
theclaw
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theclaw
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#1
Posted: 5/27/2012 6:58:40 PM

Once again it's time to check-in with "the key stat battles".

The largest mismatch across all 5 key stat battles in round 1 was......................................

OKC over Mavs --- result 4-0 sweep.

Round 2................................................

Heat over Pacers --- result 4-2 series win.

Regular Season stats....................................................................

Across all 5 "key stat battles --- OKC by an ave of .96 per stats

Heat by an ave of 1.45 per stat

Playoff stats.........................................................................................

Spurs by an ave of 2 per stat

Heat by an ave of 2.22 per stat

Strength of opponent in playoffs..........................................................

Celtics opponents ave per stat --- 11.63

OKC --- 11.25

Heat --- 10.73

Spurs --- 10.51

Factor in strength of opponent..........................................................

Spurs 2 pts better - OKC .74 advantage in opp strength = Spurs by 1.26

Heat 2.22 pts better - C's .9 advantage in opp strength = Heat by 1.32

The info suggest OKC played better during the regular season but it's the Spurs who've stepped up their game in the postseason.

The Heat played better than the C's in both the regular season and the playoffs and by quite a bit.

The largest "key stat battle" mismatch of the conference finals is...................Heat over Celtics. 

Using this info I'm now 25-12 ATS in the NBA Playoff contest on the site. All my picks will be there 5 minutes prior to each game.

I'll be riding the Heat big in game 1.

Good Luck guys and enjoy all the great games before it all comes to an end........................................................................

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1TimeLucky1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
1TimeLucky1
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#2
Posted: 5/27/2012 7:09:18 PM
where have you been brotha... love your insight and info. made some good money off your first round info. checked everyday to see if you were around. glad to see you back and ill be pounding the heat
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theclaw
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:27:03 PM

Now let's look at some history of conference final upsets.

FG% Differential..........................the most important stat in basketbal, the team that wins this battle wins about 79% of all games.

OKC --- 4.4%,   OKC over Spurs by 1.8%

Celtics --- 4.1% Celtics over Heat by .6%

Heat --- 3.5%

Spurs --- 2.6%

 

Rebounding........................the 2cd most important stat in basketball, the team that wins this battle wins about 69% of all games

Spurs --- 50.55%  Spurs by .62

Heat --- 50.24%     Heat by 4.16

OKC --- 49.93%

Celtics --- 46.08%......ouch...................

 

The majority of road teams that have won and advanced to the conference finals was at least 1% or better in 1 of these 2 "key stat battles"

This tells us that the possible upset would be OKC over Spurs.

If a team is at least 2% better in either stat has been a  very high % winners since 1980, over 80% last I check.

Heat a whopping 4.16 over Celtics seems to indicate a strong probability of  a Heat series win.

This info strongly suggest that the possible upset this round would be OKC over Spurs, not Celtics over Heat.

Of 47 NBA champs since 1974 the 1st year the league tracked off and def rebs, just 2 of the 47 NBA Champs were weak rebounding teams and the Celtics would be by far the weakest of the weak to win the title if they do.

The greatest winners in the sport failed to win a title while playing on a weak rebounding team, including Bird, Magic and MJ to.

Very few weak rebounding teams even make the final let alone win it.

When you add it all-up, the info strongly suggest the Heat will take-down the Celtics and advance to the NBA Finals.

See everyone down the road, untill then boys................................................

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theclaw
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Posted: 5/30/2012 8:21:10 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 1TimeLucky1:

where have you been brotha... love your insight and info. made some good money off your first round info. checked everyday to see if you were around. glad to see you back and ill be pounding the heat

quote
theclaw
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Posted: 5/30/2012 8:30:11 PM

Coming large on the Heat again in game 2.

Because of the Celtics experience and their ability to play well with their backs against the wall is why you want to play the Heat not the Celtics.

The Heat being the far better team as indicated in the above info, know this as well, and you can be sure they will not take their foot off the gas.

Because of that and the Heat fell behind last series they will bring tremendous energy, focus  and desire into tonights game to be sure it does not happen again.

History is loaded with past their prime players and teams getting taken out-behind-the-woodshed for a beating by elite players and teams in their prime and tonight will be another example.

Ride the Heat Big Boys.....................................................................

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theclaw
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Posted: 6/10/2012 11:48:29 AM

Well boys, the Celtics did prove a little more pesky then the info would of suggested, but in the end it was to much Heat.

History did hold with the possible upset being OKC over Spurs, not Celtics over the Heat.

I did take a out-behind the wood-shed beating myself going just 3-9 ATS in the conference finals but still have a nice 28-21 ATS record this playoffs.

Hopefully I did learn some vaulable lessons to take into next season.

See everyone in the NBA Finals, the "key stat battles" with more history coming soon, untill then guys..................................................................

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