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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Is ANYONE on the Jazz?
Donnie_Baseball send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:37:37 PM
It is early in the day, but it seems that 95% of the forum likes the Spurs -7.5 here. Is anyone at all on the Jazz for any meaningful amount?
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#2
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:39:14 PM
Jazz 
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#3
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:39:59 PM
Public all over the Spurs yet the line dropped a half a point 
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#4
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:44:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Junkplay:

Public all over the Spurs yet the line dropped a half a point 

I was thinking the same thing, although even RLM plays with a bunch of filters have fared around 50/50 the last month or so. I am somewhat new to covers, so I'm not sure exactly what people's reputations are and who everyone tails/fades, but it seems that a lot of respected cappers are on the Spurs. I am going to bet on the Jazz as well, but I thought it'd be fun to get some discussion going/see if anyone else was with me on this.
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#5
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:48:47 PM

Lakers were around that same percent last night. They got the win. I know what you mean though. Boston and Miami gave the same exact numbers on the road and they failed to cover. Utah has actually hung around but fourth quarters have been dominated by the Spurs. If Spurs are up by 10 with a minute left Utah could get the cover.

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#6
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:48:50 PM
besides the "backs against the wall, trying to stave off elimination" angle, I don't see a single reason why the Jazz would miraculously turn things around tonight, the Spurs want to close out this series and get their rest. Personally I'm doing a 2 team 4.5 pt teaser tonight and am absolutely using Spurs -3, still deciding on the other leg of it
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#7
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:51:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Junkplay:

Public all over the Spurs yet the line dropped a half a point 
Same thing happened last game..
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#8
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:57:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

Lakers were around that same percent last night. They got the win. I know what you mean though. Boston and Miami gave the same exact numbers on the road and they failed to cover. Utah has actually hung around but fourth quarters have been dominated by the Spurs. If Spurs are up by 10 with a minute left Utah could get the cover.


I was on the Lakers for my largest wager of the season last night. I pay attention to RLM, but I only use it as a miniscule % of my handicapping. 

I doubt it's the case, but (being results oriented and in the frustration of a loss) I would've sworn a couple times at the end of the season Vegas dropped a line a meaningless half a point so that all the people that blindly bet RLM would put their bet in against the public.

After the series left San Antonio, I felt strongly the Jazz would have a CHANCE to win one of their games at home (aka one would go down to the wire), and I still do. In game 3, after leading by 2 at halftime, the Spurs pulled away and led comfortably (I believe by between 7-11) almost the entire 4th quarter. In this elimination game I really think the Jazz will stay tight tonight until the very end, winning or losing a close one, and I don't think it will be by any miracle.
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#9
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:58:42 PM
just for you guys to get it straight

Heat let go on the pedas---as always----- knicks threw the kitchen sink to the knicks and were  just about to get blown away--- even with melo giving the game of the season---- but lebum  and the chokers of miami  who arent clutch at all failed and let knicks to come back ---and kincks have some vets that played with great pride

Jazz has a lot of youngsters that had already folded the tents, and dont know how to deal with this type of failure and had a reality check abou SAS being a better team, there is no pride on them left, they might put a bit of a cat fight but ...  as  some one mentioned above...SAs wants to wrap this ballerina, rest refill and be ready....when the jazz find themsleves down by DD at some pt on the 2h--matk my words---they will just call it a match,game ,series and just roll over, they will be  demoralized
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#10
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:03:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shark_apreza:

just for you guys to get it straight

Heat let go on the pedas---as always----- knicks threw the kitchen sink to the knicks and were  just about to get blown away--- even with melo giving the game of the season---- but lebum  and the chokers of miami  who arent clutch at all failed and let knicks to come back ---and kincks have some vets that played with great pride

Jazz has a lot of youngsters that had already folded the tents, and dont know how to deal with this type of failure and had a reality check abou SAS being a better team, there is no pride on them left, they might put a bit of a cat fight but ...  as  some one mentioned above...SAs wants to wrap this ballerina, rest refill and be ready....when the jazz find themsleves down by DD at some pt on the 2h--matk my words---they will just call it a match,game ,series and just roll over, they will be  demoralized

compelling argument. you're a hell of a salesman
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#11
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:04:25 PM

I would have given the Jazz a chance, but to hear some of their core players say no matter how hard they play they just can't seem to get past the Spurs...

I love the Jazz, and I have rode with them alot this year especially at home...

But they gave everything they had Saturday night and it still wasn't enough through a full 48 minute Game, they just couldn't seal the deal or even cover..

 I also understand the point made about the Public  pounding the Spurs but the line drops to -7.5 just like the Heat Game..

But I think the Spurs & Heat are different teams in how they approach their business, I would take the Spurs any day over the Heat in closing out a Series...

Bol on your Play...

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#12
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:05:34 PM
Al Jefferson said all I needed to hear earlier today, "If you lose to a team because you didn’t play your best, that’s one thing. If you’re playing your best and doing everything that you can, and you’re just playing against a team that’s better than you, that’s another one."

Jazz will get the doors blown off them tonight and the Spurs will get their much deserved rest.
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#13
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:13:01 PM
My gut feeling tells me this line is begging for Spurs money, and they may in fact cover. BUT, I've seen this all too often .... Miami NY yesterday for example. I will always take reverse line movement of a point or more very seriously! If this line gets to 7 and 70% are on the Spurs I will max bet the Jazz just as a system play alone.
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#14
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:19:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BG6:

Al Jefferson said all I needed to hear earlier today, "If you lose to a team because you didn’t play your best, that’s one thing. If you’re playing your best and doing everything that you can, and you’re just playing against a team that’s better than you, that’s another one."

what a preposterous statement. thanks for the heads up
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#15
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:20:37 PM
The indicators so far are pointing towards the Jazz, although it's too early to call anything yet.

I'd like to invite everyone to my thread for discussion on the sharp plays tonight.

Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
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#16
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:37:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

The indicators so far are pointing towards the Jazz, although it's too early to call anything yet.

I'd like to invite everyone to my thread for discussion on the sharp plays tonight.

Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

I actually like the premise of your system, but I found it funny you came in here to link us your thread considering this statement in the OP:

[Quote: Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR] 
I've already posted the gist of my system insmoothD's thread, and still have mixed emotions about sharing this info with everyone
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#17
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:38:20 PM
laying 7.5 on the road is a no play for me, but if I did Id go spurz....
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#18
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:40:08 PM

just a matter of how bad they want to pound the jazz,,,spurs going to destroy everyone in the west

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#19
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:40:15 PM
i was contemplating the jazz when i woke up this morning but after watching ESPN First Take they were talking about Al Jeffersons quote in which he pretty much admitted that the spurs are superior and just on another level and are clearly better than the jazz so im thinking the jazz have mentally packed it in and its just a matter of time  before they get there fishing rods and bait ready
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#20
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:41:11 PM
yes..ok city going down too
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#21
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:42:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:


what a preposterous statement. thanks for the heads up


No problem, good luck!
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#22
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:51:18 PM
OK FOR ALL U STAT GUYS


05/05/12UTA 90 - SA 102SA -5.56.5U 200.536/8939/8049-41
05/02/12SA 114 - UTA 83SA -1120.0U 202.547/8231/9044-43
04/29/12SA 106 - UTA 91SA -11.53.5U 206.040/8432/7639-45
04/09/12UTA 91 - SA 84UTA -43.0U 207.531/7335/8750-38
04/08/12SA 114 - UTA 104Push -103.0O 210.035/6941/9345-39
02/20/12UTA 102 - SA 106SA -2.51.5O 192.540/8436/7841-33
12/31/11SA 104 - UTA 89SA -14.50.5U 195.536/7433/8946-44






ONLY TO MENTION ---  THE ONLY GAME SAS didn cover was when SAS played all the bench because they were getting ready fro playoffs---and UTAH was fighting for their play off hopes---and yet UTAH at full steam barely covered ----
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#23
Posted: 5/7/2012 4:10:19 PM
Jazz +8 -110 3u 


still available at 8 at Bovada
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#24
Posted: 5/7/2012 4:16:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

Jazz +8 -110 3u 


still available at 8 at Bovada




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#25
Posted: 5/7/2012 4:28:03 PM
I'm believing Jefferson and if they have packed it in I'm liking UNDER 199.5 more then some backdoor cover with disinterrested subs in the 4th.I figure Popovitch/starters insure a win then rest his players and that won't be racehorse but slow and steady.
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