Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#751
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:17:12 PM
Next season is gonna be SICK.

We're in the post-season of NBA, and so far so good, but right now I'm just making some decent money and ironing out the couple kinks.  I never even released the new System 2.0 guidelines, and don't have to. You guys have everything you need for the rest of this season. 

Next season is when I truly bring down the books.  I'm not kidding either. I'm a poker player and Florida has gotten to be a great spot for poker but there's no sports betting, and I want both at the palm of my hands.  Right now I'm using an offshore site.  But that won't be good enough next year because I'm going for big money.

I want to be playing a 10-20 nl game at the Bellagio or Aria or something and walk to the counter to bet my sharp play, then cash the ticket on my way out.  That's the life I want.  I want to move to Vegas later this year.  I'd be ready to do it now, had I not went close to broke late last year.  But I'm rebuilding now and gonna do it eventually.

Rotps159 PM Rotps159
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quote#752
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:22:21 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR]

I don't think we know that the public is not taking Memphis.  Clips have injury issues, almost lost 2 of their wins in the series so far, and lost last game.  Add to that Memphis is favored now, and public usually take favorites.  I think public is on Memphis now.

This doesn't mean Memphis won't win or that I don't like them.  I do personally like them actually.  But what I like doesn't really mean anything, anymore than who wins tonight means anything.  We're tracking system plays and for the reasons listed above, there isn't a system play at this time on the game and most-likely won't be later either.

If we see numbers coming in on Clips and Memphis goes higher then maybe, but so far I'm seeing everyone jumping on Memphis and the under, making both moves suspect and hence no-plays.

Hey Czech you say that everyone is jumping on Memphis and the under but it has 62 percent of the public on over for the game tonight...
Raiderpug PM Raiderpug
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quote#753
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:27:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Next season is gonna be SICK.

We're in the post-season of NBA, and so far so good, but right now I'm just making some decent money and ironing out the couple kinks.  I never even released the new System 2.0 guidelines, and don't have to. You guys have everything you need for the rest of this season. 

Next season is when I truly bring down the books.  I'm not kidding either. I'm a poker player and Florida has gotten to be a great spot for poker but there's no sports betting, and I want both at the palm of my hands.  Right now I'm using an offshore site.  But that won't be good enough next year because I'm going for big money.

I want to be playing a 10-20 nl game at the Bellagio or Aria or something and walk to the counter to bet my sharp play, then cash the ticket on my way out.  That's the life I want.  I want to move to Vegas later this year.  I'd be ready to do it now, had I not went close to broke late last year.  But I'm rebuilding now and gonna do it eventually.

I live at Aria, actually at the Veer towers in front of Aria

CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#754
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:42:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Raiderpug:

I live at Aria, actually at the Veer towers in front of Aria


Nice. I visited in October.  Had the best time there lost like $7K playing roulette and made it all back in NFL.  Crazy weekend and came home even.
Daywalker331 PM Daywalker331
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quote#755
Posted: 5/11/2012 7:30:11 PM
CZECH RAZOR You think you wanna live in Vegas and gamble everyday with your system HUH? Did you really give that some SERIOUS thought? Not saying that your the Average gambler but the average Gambler that goes there with that opinion ends up LOSING EVERYTHING!!!!!! FAMILY MONEY ETC. Vegas is nice to visit and that's every Gambler's pipe dream but it's like REALLY DUDE you can't actually LIVE like that. I don't know about you but the Stress of Gambling for me can sometimes be OVERWHELMING and to think of trying to do it every day cuz it's my living? Honestly I'd rather be a Bookie than be trying to make a living solely from gambling.You might wanna give that idea some SERIOUS thought. 
Guaji PM Guaji
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quote#756
Posted: 5/11/2012 7:43:13 PM
56% on Memphis
59% on over.

It was 181.5 and now 179.
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#757
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:03:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Guaji:

56% on Memphis
59% on over.

It was 181.5 and now 179.

Guaji, I see this also according to Covers consensus data.

I was assuming these line moves were injury related, and that the public was jumping on the under and memphis. I could be totally wrong on that though.  

Be back shortly someone do a little digging on it





curtis07 PM curtis07
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quote#758
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:05:57 PM
how is the under not a play if 57% of action is on the over and line has dropped 2.5 pts.....
Great system and its betting 101.......its pretty much 
1-Respecting the line movements
2-Fading the public
when u see them both its a play......

Great stuff my man best of luck 
curtis07 PM curtis07
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quote#759
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:07:45 PM
I would assume its cause of the injuries which is an exception but I think the betting world knows Paul has been confirmed to play and Blake is highly likely...but I guess I can see why it might not qualify cause of the uncertainty of blake
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#760
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:20:58 PM
Hey Paobb we don't care bout that garbage in here beat it buster
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#761
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:22:35 PM
5DimesOdds (Line)Over/Under (Total)
05/11/12 10:27:44 AM0/-110 (Open)180.5 -110 (Open)
05/11/12 10:37:43 AM0/-110179.5 -105
05/11/12 10:57:42 AM1.5/-105179.5 -105
05/11/12 11:07:44 AM1.5/-105179 -105
05/11/12 1:07:43 PM1.5/-102179 -105
05/11/12 1:47:43 PM
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#762
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:24:31 PM
So you see that between 10:27 am and 11:07 am (40 minutes) it was adjusted down to 179 and then stayed there all day.  
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#763
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:28:30 PM
This is why I said to avoid injury-related line moves, because now we're playing a guessing game trying to figure out who the public is betting, why the line moved, is it because of Blake Griffin, etc etc.  

Looks like a big fat no-play system-wise.  Personal picks are Memphis and the under.
misterstats PM misterstats
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quote#764
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:29:47 PM
I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going.  Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare.  Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%.  Over at 67% and the other at 45%.  This info is totally out of wack.  I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).

Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play.  This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get.  People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM.  People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back.  NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.

It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't.  As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).  

For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER.  Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.

GL everyone and have a great weekend!
pinoy1da PM pinoy1da
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quote#765
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:33:15 PM
Cool beans
Posted using a mobile device.
pinoy1da PM pinoy1da
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quote#766
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:33:17 PM
Cool beans
Posted using a mobile device.
Thebookieluvsme PM Thebookieluvsme
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quote#767
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:35:14 PM
scores and odds showing 67% on memphis and 52% on under.....clippers catching points at home in a possible closeout game of a tight series....lines at 2.5 my locals at 3 im biting....mark dogg is 13-1 in his last 14 hes onthem....anthony starks is getting back to winning tonight took them...rastad is on them too....vegas has everyone thinking memphis is taking it to a game 7...if they win in la it will be a 1 to 2 point game
Guaji PM Guaji
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quote#768
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:35:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

This is why I said to avoid injury-related line moves, because now we're playing a guessing game trying to figure out who the public is betting, why the line moved, is it because of Blake Griffin, etc etc.  

Looks like a big fat no-play system-wise.  Personal picks are Memphis and the under.


I like also Memphis and might play only that... I am a little afraid about the movement like the Lakers one.
Guaji PM Guaji
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quote#769
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:37:39 PM
I might play Memphis but Money Line but still checking some other stuffs.
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#770
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:43:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by misterstats:

I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going.  Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare.  Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%.  Over at 67% and the other at 45%.  This info is totally out of wack.  I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).

Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play.  This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get.  People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM.  People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back.  NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.

It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't.  As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).  

For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER.  Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.

GL everyone and have a great weekend!

This was a pretty good breakdown thanks dude.  We just don't have any sharp info to make a system play.

I also like Memphis and under and think we have indicators on both but they are no-plays according to the system.  Good luck to whoever you take.
PTOTOUR PM PTOTOUR
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quote#771
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:44:06 PM
I GOTTA THINK THE CLIPPERS AND THE POINTS IS THE PLAY HERE, BUT WHO AM I TO SAY.  
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#772
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:55:32 PM
Hey started new record the other night and forgot to post results yesterday (1-1 personal picks) since there were no system plays. 

3-0 system
1-1 personal

Both picks tonight mem and under are personal picks.
misterstats PM misterstats
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quote#773
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:02:37 PM
Some books have the line at MEM -2.5 now.  Hopefully it's the sharps that causing the late line movement.

Enjoy the game guys.
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#774
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:05:16 PM
Mem and under both just moved 1/2 pt late.  Upgrading to System plays.

--SYSTEM PLAYS--

MEM -2.5
UNDER 178.5
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#775
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:05:59 PM
I should note these are 2.0 plays and 101 no-plays.  

I'm working a new angle on the 2.0 picks.  We'll see.
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