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Daywalker331 |
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#726 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:07:39 PM |
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PaperJay |
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#727 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:13:01 PM |
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evanvr |
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#728 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:29:45 PM |
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CZECH_RAZOR |
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#729 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:30:04 PM
Let me clarify something, since I've said before my system doesn't pertain to factors like players, refs, home away, injuries, etc etc. It doesn't.
The reason I pay attention to injuries specifically is not simply to fade the 100%> team. That may wind up being the play, for sure, but this isn't the angle.
You will see my point reflected more in totals, as we saw last night on Lakers. Almost always when key players are out or hurt, you see the total drop. This is because every buster in America sees the same thing, and thinks less points as a result, pushing the line down. That means the line move can be unreliable.
How many times in the reg season did we see this? I saw many examples with Bulls and other teams where there was a key player out, total dropped, and then game went over. Bench players played a faster pace, less D, etc, and you had an over.
That's why I don't qualify certain line moves if I think they're injury related. It's not that that move won't hit, necessarily, but the whole point here is to stick to the sharp plays and them only. I personally like Memphis tonight, but I don't see anything system related at this time. |
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monkeymark5 |
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#730 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:34:26 PM
thanks for the info |
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thizzle71 |
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#731 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:36:43 PM |
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#732 Posted: 5/11/2012 3:03:14 PM |
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#733 Posted: 5/11/2012 3:15:37 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bcdugan813:
czech Im really impressed with your strategies The simple rules will really help us take down the books. I have gone 3-0 after following these rules. tonights game is head scrather so im just going to follow rule # 1 and 8 bol guys
Thanks man. The simple rules will get you there. Don't forget rule 3, follow your gut. If you're scared off of a system play here and there that's okay. I added rule 3 as a safe guard. You can disqualify any play you want, but can't qualify any play you want. See? Pretty smart. Limit yourself to the best plays and you will crush it.
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#734 Posted: 5/11/2012 3:20:13 PM |
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#735 Posted: 5/11/2012 3:40:52 PM
Czech's Road to Riches  System 2.0 might have something later, maybe even just halftime. I'll update later. |
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orangekid |
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#736 Posted: 5/11/2012 3:54:05 PM
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Daywalker331 |
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#737 Posted: 5/11/2012 3:57:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by orangekid:
cut the bullshit, just show your pick, you loser
DAMN U JUS JOINED AND YOUR COMING LIKE THAT GO DO SOME REASERCH ON THIS GUY'S WORK IT'S BEEN PRETTY SOLID AND ALL AVAILABLE TO BE TRACKED...AFTER THAT YOU MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE MORE RESPECT. !!! JUS WHAT THIS SITE NEEDS ...ANOTHER KNUCKLEHEAD!!! |
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#738 Posted: 5/11/2012 4:00:16 PM |
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budwiser |
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#739 Posted: 5/11/2012 4:11:18 PM
so u say no play tonite, but the line moved bigtime towards memphis. we all know the public's not taking memphis. i take it u think the injuries to paul and griffith give reason behind the move, making it a no-play?
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#740 Posted: 5/11/2012 4:51:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by budwiser:
great stuff czech razor
so u say no play tonite, but the line moved bigtime towards memphis. we all know the public's not taking memphis. i take it u think the injuries to paul and griffith give reason behind the move, making it a no-play?
I don't think we know that the public is not taking Memphis. Clips have injury issues, almost lost 2 of their wins in the series so far, and lost last game. Add to that Memphis is favored now, and public usually take favorites. I think public is on Memphis now.
This doesn't mean Memphis won't win or that I don't like them. I do personally like them actually. But what I like doesn't really mean anything, anymore than who wins tonight means anything. We're tracking system plays and for the reasons listed above, there isn't a system play at this time on the game and most-likely won't be later either.
If we see numbers coming in on Clips and Memphis goes higher then maybe, but so far I'm seeing everyone jumping on Memphis and the under, making both moves suspect and hence no-plays. |
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#741 Posted: 5/11/2012 4:58:13 PM
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R-U-N-V-S |
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#742 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:01:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by orangekid:
cut the bullshit, just show your pick, you loser
damn man... wheres your class? |
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#743 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:16:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
I don't think we know that the public is not taking Memphis. Clips have injury issues, almost lost 2 of their wins in the series so far, and lost last game. Add to that Memphis is favored now, and public usually take favorites. I think public is on Memphis now.
This doesn't mean Memphis won't win or that I don't like them. I do personally like them actually. But what I like doesn't really mean anything, anymore than who wins tonight means anything. We're tracking system plays and for the reasons listed above, there isn't a system play at this time on the game and most-likely won't be later either.
If we see numbers coming in on Clips and Memphis goes higher then maybe, but so far I'm seeing everyone jumping on Memphis and the under, making both moves suspect and hence no-plays.
Hey Czech, I appreciate all that you're doing for the community here. I am slowly trying to learn your system and I fully understand why the system doesn't approve tonight's Clippers game. Looking into tomorrows board, would you say that Philly +5 and Lakers Under 196.5 would qualify or appear to qualify as a system pick?
Any advice on tomorrows board would help a ton... thanks again! |
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#744 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:26:10 PM
I developed my system 101 during the reg season when there was college games and NBA games. In other words, plenty to choose from. I didn't need to mess w games close to pk's, or plays that looked sharp even when the public was jumping on them too.
We have less and less games to bet now, and what if the system no-plays the game tonight? Are you gonna bet it anyways? I'm not gonna lie I probably will.
I have a duty to only qualify plays I feel are eligible. We have a lot of people in this thread and it's a thread about the system. If I start adding my own biases to every pick the record goes down the toilet.
That doesn't mean you can't bet the game tonight though. You can still use the clues we're talking about in here. Maybe you should not bet it. I don't know. I honestly did want to help people make $ in this thread though and think we're getting somewhere so far.
Just be disciplined and don't try and fit every game into the system because that doesn't work. If you start forgetting the rules read the first page of this thread. I've tried to fit plays in before and they've lost and I looked back and saw all the clues were right there. Line moved back, public was on the side of the line move, etc etc. Sometimes there is no sharp play and it's just a sports game. |
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Vicente87 |
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#745 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:33:52 PM http://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?sport=NBA&eventid=839973
I'm looking at pinnacle numbers because they seem the most updated.
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#746 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:35:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mixvinyl:
Hey Czech, I appreciate all that you're doing for the community here. I am slowly trying to learn your system and I fully understand why the system doesn't approve tonight's Clippers game. Looking into tomorrows board, would you say that Philly +5 and Lakers Under 196.5 would qualify or appear to qualify as a system pick?
Any advice on tomorrows board would help a ton... thanks again!
Thanks for visiting and you're welcome. I hope you find it beneficial. Everything in life is subject to change, but so far I believe in what I'm doing. I have seen it work quite consistently so far and doubt it will change anytime soon.
I haven't looked at tomorrow's games yet. I haven't found it helpful in the past to look ahead too much. That might change now with less games and more anticipation from everyone, but when I started this there were tons of games every day and I only got biased by looking ahead. The best was when I sat down to look at the 10 games for today and saw oh, wow, this line dropping and everyone on over, and oh look at this one everyone on the favorite and line moving on the dog. That was when the system was born. Now we have less and less games and that sucks. Can't wait til next season. |
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#747 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:39:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Vicente87: Can you confirm me this is the right page to look at how the lines are moving? http://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?sport=NBA&eventid=839973
I'm looking at pinnacle numbers because they seem the most updated.
Thks
Yeah I've always used these pages on Covers. If there's something worth seeing you'll see it there. I don't care if one book did something 1/2 pt different than everyone else. Any games that have real line movement will be able to be seen on covers. |
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#748 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:42:00 PM
BOL |
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budwiser |
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#749 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:49:57 PM
doesn't help with this system but just a thought
like football, you know everyone's betting on the super bowl
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#750 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:05:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by budwiser:
yeah it sux that there's less and less games, but on the other hand we know more and more of the public is on these particular games. way more than regualr season
doesn't help with this system but just a thought
like football, you know everyone's betting on the super bowl
No that's actually a good point. Vegas knows this as well, so the system should be just as sound in the post-season. It is just as sound, just doesn't provide as many plays as we'd like to see every night.
Next season will be a lot of fun.
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