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NBA THU 020509 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #1
Here's what I'm looking at today

[702] TOTAL u214½-110 
(INDIANA vrs PHILADELPHIA)

[703] TOTAL o205-110 
(LA LAKERS vrs BOSTON)

[704] BOSTON -6-110


 
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some capping notes:

[704] BOSTON -6-110

BOS 4-6 ats at home in 2008 playing teams on the 2nd of b2b
LAL 6-2 ats on the road in 2008 on the 2nd of b2b
BOS 5-2 ats (7-0 su) at home in 2008 vs .650+ (elite) teams
LAL 4-1 ats (3-2 su) on the road vs .650+ (elite) teams
BOS 5-1 ats (6-0 su) as home fav with O/U 200+
LAL 3-0 in 2008 as road dog

in revenge games:
at home since the new big 3 (2007) where BOS previously lost on the road 12-9 ats (19-2 su)
at home where opp is on the 2nd of b2b 3-3 ats (5-1) su

more to come
 
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Posted: #4
on the celts as well however not sure if they cover 6 points
 
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Quote Originally Posted by KnightofSorrow:

on the celts as well however not sure if they cover 6 points

Agreed.  6 is very tight.  
 
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[704] BOSTON -6-110

Statistical analysis:

Final LAL 103 BOS 109 (weighted)

if they play to expectations BOS by about 1-2 (geometric mean towards tendency)
If home team dictates and visitors follow BOS by 7-10 (weighted for home and away performances)
team momentums: BOS by 4-6 (exponential smoothing)
 
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The Boston game is the Lakers fifth stop on a six  game road trip ... the first four games  they won with an average score of 122 - 110  going over the total and beating the spot in all four. Kobe might be looking forward to the Sunday game in Cleveland but I don't see that as a major factor ...
 
The Lakers plus 6 and over 203 are good plays !!!
 
GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND !!!   
 
 
 
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Chump...you're always right on the moeny!  The over is my play but I MUST play my 1/20 unit homer on the C's.

Thanks for stopping by and sharing your insight.  BOL to you sir! 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

Chump...you're always right on the moeny!  The over is my play but I MUST play my 1/20 unit homer on the C's.

Thanks for stopping by and sharing your insight.  BOL to you sir! 

  One should always try to avoid falling in love with the nieghbors wife and home town sport teams !!!!!!!  

 

 
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Quote Originally Posted by chump:

  One should always try to avoid falling in love with the nieghbors wife and home town sport teams !!!!!!!  

 


I know that rule very well.  It's tough to live in a town that's got the C's, the B's, the Pats and the Sox.  That play is purely for entertainment, recreational and strickly GAMBLING.  

...and if you saw the neighbor's wife, you'd know there is absolutely nothing to worry about.

C's in a blowout by 30!!!! LOL
 
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thanks man, you in Vegas UD?
 
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Posted: #13
Ax, good to see you hunting as usual.
 
Like the totals plays, I'm a little concerned the 76ers D doesn't do enough to keep this game at bay. Indiana always seems to notch those damn high total marks.
 
GL today anyways boss, shoot down some winners.
 
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Posted: #14
bol ax, got the lakers and philly today. one of us will win!           
 
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IMHO  i think you are on the wrong side of this play (BC/LAL).
 
-6 is alot but wait it maybe fall a little as the west coast gamblers come on line.....but the under here screams the Lakers have played no one with a defense, if the public hits the Over hard like a think they will the Under will play.  If Boston wins it is Under.
 
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Hey Ax, I check late your post in WBA thread, thank God I didnt bet knicks ML; I cant bet moneylines in my book believe it or not! we both cash yestreday easy win yourself with newjersey; Anyways, good luck with your bets tonight, I see that you love celtics over, im still doing my homework on that game! but the side is very close as you already said, I can see boston winning the game but not sure if they cover 6 points. lets cash again tonight brother
 
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Posted: #18
Ax, what do you like utah or dallas?? i think im going for utah ml@ -120...well that is my bookie...

Im not having a prop play for tonight...wanted to pound Dwill again but my bookie doesnt have it...damn
 
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Posted: #19

Ax,

I was with you on the under philly v indy BUT my local just bumped from 214.5 to 216.5. You still feelin the under after that line move? Im leaning on the over after that line move

 
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Posted: #20
Now is Lakers+7 in partybets
and this is my play
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


I know that rule very well.  It's tough to live in a town that's got the C's, the B's, the Pats and the Sox.  That play is purely for entertainment, recreational and strickly GAMBLING.  

...and if you saw the neighbor's wife, you'd know there is absolutely nothing to worry about.

C's in a blowout by 30!!!! LOL


That's true! lol axpiota59 where you from? I'm from Worcester. I'm starting to think under for cause my line jumped from 203.5 to 206. Anybody think it's looking suspicious? What you think bro?
 
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The last three nights there have real obvios trap bets for us who know what to look for. 
Mon  PHX -15 to SAC (everyone on SAC lose by 48)
Tues BOST -3 to PHI  (ditto wins by 1)
Wed PHX -4 @ GS after winning there last game by 48 (ditto lose by 12)
Tonight total in IND v PHI 215 1/2?!
the last meeting  189,186,161,213,187,176,196,194,183,171
Granted the teams have only been the same for the last 3 meetings but in those meetings averaging 178 1/2.
Could anyone please give me a reason why I shouldn't take the over b/c of the 1 or 2 lines a night this week being what are discribed above? 
 
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The last three nights there have real obvious trap bets for us who know what to look for. 
Mon  PHX -15 to SAC (everyone on SAC lose by 48)
Tues BOST -3 to PHI  (ditto wins by 1)
Wed PHX -4 @ GS after winning there last game by 48 (ditto lose by 12)
Tonight total in IND v PHI 215 1/2?!
the last meeting  189,186,161,213,187,176,196,194,183,171
Granted the teams have only been the same for the last 3 meetings but in those meetings averaging 178 1/2.
Could anyone please give me a reason why I shouldn't take the over b/c of the 1 or 2 lines a night this week being what are discribed above? 
 
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Posted: #24
sorry for the double up
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by UnkleSam:

Ax, good to see you hunting as usual.
 
Like the totals plays, I'm a little concerned the 76ers D doesn't do enough to keep this game at bay. Indiana always seems to notch those damn high total marks.
 
GL today anyways boss, shoot down some winners.

IMHO

I can see where you are coming from U S.  Those pacers do like to put up points. I like the under here for a couple of reasons.  Granger's been bothered with a knee and Philly is fairly consistant on the defensive end statistically.  For them to win this game (I think they will but no play), they must hold IND under 100.  That should be enough to keep the total under.  If the 76ers decide to run with Indy, my play is shot.

trending: these 2 have gone undet 6 of last 7

person luck man.
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