I know this isn't at their usual home court because of Garth freaking Brooks but I'm going with a Sky team that has EDD. Injured or not, this young girl is a trooper. No one believed me when I said the Spurs would win the NBA championship 4-1 and before this series started, I said the Mercury would win 3-1. Well this is the game that I think Sky can win S/U. Because its the Mercury though, not taking the Sky ML because I would rathe play it safe + I hope Phoenix do win this game due to me futures bet on them but I really believe that the -7 is a lot to cover on the road and BG will be rested. She hasn't met up with the team yet and I think they will rest her and then get her over to Chicago for the 4th game. Seriously, why would coach Brondello risk playing BG after she had surgery on her eye less than 48 hours post surgery? I reckon she would tell her to rest up in Phoenix, recover and get on a plane to Chicago after game 3. Even though the Mercury have easily beaten the Sky in the first 2 games, the Mercury's point differential on the road is much worse than at home. At home, their average win was by +13.64, on the road it was only +5.17. Sky on the road were -5.76 and at home it was +1.74. Understand this is not at their usual arena but I think Vegas gets some of their money back that they lost on the first 2 games.
I know this isn't at their usual home court because of Garth freaking Brooks but I'm going with a Sky team that has EDD. Injured or not, this young girl is a trooper. No one believed me when I said the Spurs would win the NBA championship 4-1 and before this series started, I said the Mercury would win 3-1. Well this is the game that I think Sky can win S/U. Because its the Mercury though, not taking the Sky ML because I would rathe play it safe + I hope Phoenix do win this game due to me futures bet on them but I really believe that the -7 is a lot to cover on the road and BG will be rested. She hasn't met up with the team yet and I think they will rest her and then get her over to Chicago for the 4th game. Seriously, why would coach Brondello risk playing BG after she had surgery on her eye less than 48 hours post surgery? I reckon she would tell her to rest up in Phoenix, recover and get on a plane to Chicago after game 3. Even though the Mercury have easily beaten the Sky in the first 2 games, the Mercury's point differential on the road is much worse than at home. At home, their average win was by +13.64, on the road it was only +5.17. Sky on the road were -5.76 and at home it was +1.74. Understand this is not at their usual arena but I think Vegas gets some of their money back that they lost on the first 2 games.
Good to see you thread Aussie up and running, just as I am about to go to sleep. I wonder how you found time to do this research in Switzerland; you might miss Julie Andrews and Tina Turner if you keep hanging out on covers.
Seriously though, the more I think about this the less I am liking BG's injury. Even if she plays, she probably will be a bit rusty and wearing some sort of goggles. If she does not play, that will be a completely new look for PHX: they will have to rely on jumpshots a lot more and at the same time Sky will be able to drive to the hoop a lot more.
Anyway, CHI ML came down from about +400 to +250. It seems silly not to hedge a bit on my futures PHX bet at CHI +5000. For the same reason, I like your play on CHI +7; not sure about the totals but leaning under 1H (new hoops for both teams and all, plus maybe no BG) and maybe CHI TT o75. But I'll wait for the word from the guru on that one.
Good to see you thread Aussie up and running, just as I am about to go to sleep. I wonder how you found time to do this research in Switzerland; you might miss Julie Andrews and Tina Turner if you keep hanging out on covers.
Seriously though, the more I think about this the less I am liking BG's injury. Even if she plays, she probably will be a bit rusty and wearing some sort of goggles. If she does not play, that will be a completely new look for PHX: they will have to rely on jumpshots a lot more and at the same time Sky will be able to drive to the hoop a lot more.
Anyway, CHI ML came down from about +400 to +250. It seems silly not to hedge a bit on my futures PHX bet at CHI +5000. For the same reason, I like your play on CHI +7; not sure about the totals but leaning under 1H (new hoops for both teams and all, plus maybe no BG) and maybe CHI TT o75. But I'll wait for the word from the guru on that one.
Call me a sucker for taking the +7 after 2 blowouts already! There gotta be some pride in this Chicago squad. +7 have a great chance of covering if Griner doesn't starts or not 100%.
Call me a sucker for taking the +7 after 2 blowouts already! There gotta be some pride in this Chicago squad. +7 have a great chance of covering if Griner doesn't starts or not 100%.
man o man o man like ax said we have some major wrinkles...thanks Oz for starting the thread, hope your vaca is going well and you are eating good food, drinking good beer and relaxing
a new venue is huge, I think Griner will play
as far as the UIC Pavalion, at a quick glance Chi played there as their home venue from 2006-2009, it seats somewhere bt/w 6,500-7,000, Phx has been their 4 times once a season since 2006 and has won all 4 in high scoring games (90-70, 98-96, 89-79, and 106-99) and Taurasi has had a lot of success (29, 26, 16 and 27) with Bonner and Taylor also playing there in 2009. Albeit completely different teams at those points, I can't ignore the scoring. Also if Griner does play the refs are going to be whistle happy as the league does not want their next superstar injured in any way, it's their investment and they have to protect it. So we get a packed small venue that should be batshiit crazy loud, a rested EDD, a Chi team that must feel like they have a chance if they attack attack a not 100% Griner, a Phx team that must feel like they have to prove themselves with their superstar injured and on the road in a hostile environment, a closeout game that is proven to have more 3PTA and FTA and a possible referee crew that should keep the points coming (Gulbeyan/Price would be awesome for us) and that's enough for me to take the over. 88-81 somebody over 158 33 bags
man o man o man like ax said we have some major wrinkles...thanks Oz for starting the thread, hope your vaca is going well and you are eating good food, drinking good beer and relaxing
a new venue is huge, I think Griner will play
as far as the UIC Pavalion, at a quick glance Chi played there as their home venue from 2006-2009, it seats somewhere bt/w 6,500-7,000, Phx has been their 4 times once a season since 2006 and has won all 4 in high scoring games (90-70, 98-96, 89-79, and 106-99) and Taurasi has had a lot of success (29, 26, 16 and 27) with Bonner and Taylor also playing there in 2009. Albeit completely different teams at those points, I can't ignore the scoring. Also if Griner does play the refs are going to be whistle happy as the league does not want their next superstar injured in any way, it's their investment and they have to protect it. So we get a packed small venue that should be batshiit crazy loud, a rested EDD, a Chi team that must feel like they have a chance if they attack attack a not 100% Griner, a Phx team that must feel like they have to prove themselves with their superstar injured and on the road in a hostile environment, a closeout game that is proven to have more 3PTA and FTA and a possible referee crew that should keep the points coming (Gulbeyan/Price would be awesome for us) and that's enough for me to take the over. 88-81 somebody over 158 33 bags
thanks iNeed I hope I don't disappoint cause I've had a good run and sometimes karma catches up to you when suddenly more peeps tail, you lose, ax would totally agree with this as we are both superstitious, but it is what it is win or lose..I really hope that small arena is jam packed with 6,500 fans on ESPN it'd be great to see, much louder than the Allstate arena where Chi normally plays and seats 18,500 with only 6,000 showing up, I think that could be a huge factor tonight in spurring Chi on and keep the tempo up, hopefully we only need like a 30pt 4th to secure the win, GL man
thanks iNeed I hope I don't disappoint cause I've had a good run and sometimes karma catches up to you when suddenly more peeps tail, you lose, ax would totally agree with this as we are both superstitious, but it is what it is win or lose..I really hope that small arena is jam packed with 6,500 fans on ESPN it'd be great to see, much louder than the Allstate arena where Chi normally plays and seats 18,500 with only 6,000 showing up, I think that could be a huge factor tonight in spurring Chi on and keep the tempo up, hopefully we only need like a 30pt 4th to secure the win, GL man
no idea tonk, perhaps they start out a bit slow b/c of 2 days off, the new venue but hopefully when they get rolling downhill they pick up a head of steam...might be a good time to grab Chi +4 1H but I won't be on 2 bets line and a total bad juju for me
no idea tonk, perhaps they start out a bit slow b/c of 2 days off, the new venue but hopefully when they get rolling downhill they pick up a head of steam...might be a good time to grab Chi +4 1H but I won't be on 2 bets line and a total bad juju for me
Wow, the total line is shooting up: 157 to 159 right now. I guess this means BG will be playing since the CHI ATS also moved to +7.5. I am not sure how effective she will be wearing those goggles that she was buying yesterday, especially on offense. I actually do not think that it is particularly good news for the over if she does play tonight.
The 1H total is staying firm at 78.5 though. Hmm. I might still play under 1H if it moves closer to 80.
Wow, the total line is shooting up: 157 to 159 right now. I guess this means BG will be playing since the CHI ATS also moved to +7.5. I am not sure how effective she will be wearing those goggles that she was buying yesterday, especially on offense. I actually do not think that it is particularly good news for the over if she does play tonight.
The 1H total is staying firm at 78.5 though. Hmm. I might still play under 1H if it moves closer to 80.
Ok Made some decisions here. Going to follow WAGERS on the over. Going to hit it hard and not think too much more about it. If he says I should take it and he is betting 33 bags then i say i have a 75 % chance of winning it.The man is an unreal capping monster. I am also taking PHO -7for amoderate play. NEEDSOMEPICKS has shown me the error in my ways here and I just think PHO has too too many weapons. And i kind of hope BG does not play. I get a better chance for the "over"... then Bonner will step up and Penny Taylor will step up and how can DT play any better than she is now? She is a mini Godzilla beast.And EDD... one twisted rebound and she is out. She may be getting better but still i see EP having a bad game. She is due. Sylvia is only wild card here. She could go off and score 30 pts. I think PHO wins even if she does and I think minus 7 is a gift. Also taking a moderate play 81.5 over TT PHO for all the reasons stated above. I dont see CHI playing any D to begin with. Take an explosive PHO team that can sleepwalk to 80 and i gotta think TT over. Lets get these! will be fun to watch.brutaljoe
Ok Made some decisions here. Going to follow WAGERS on the over. Going to hit it hard and not think too much more about it. If he says I should take it and he is betting 33 bags then i say i have a 75 % chance of winning it.The man is an unreal capping monster. I am also taking PHO -7for amoderate play. NEEDSOMEPICKS has shown me the error in my ways here and I just think PHO has too too many weapons. And i kind of hope BG does not play. I get a better chance for the "over"... then Bonner will step up and Penny Taylor will step up and how can DT play any better than she is now? She is a mini Godzilla beast.And EDD... one twisted rebound and she is out. She may be getting better but still i see EP having a bad game. She is due. Sylvia is only wild card here. She could go off and score 30 pts. I think PHO wins even if she does and I think minus 7 is a gift. Also taking a moderate play 81.5 over TT PHO for all the reasons stated above. I dont see CHI playing any D to begin with. Take an explosive PHO team that can sleepwalk to 80 and i gotta think TT over. Lets get these! will be fun to watch.brutaljoe
well, let's hope Chi come out like a hornets nest and run run run if I was Pokey that's what I'd preach, that Chi TT over 76 looks tasty to me I think over should come in but may be a crazy game where 1H goes under because of different team for Phx and different venue but at half both coaches should probably say if we dominate and score we will win so may come with a huuuuge 2H over, seen it a thousand times
well, let's hope Chi come out like a hornets nest and run run run if I was Pokey that's what I'd preach, that Chi TT over 76 looks tasty to me I think over should come in but may be a crazy game where 1H goes under because of different team for Phx and different venue but at half both coaches should probably say if we dominate and score we will win so may come with a huuuuge 2H over, seen it a thousand times
Hmm. EDD played 19 mins in the 1H; Dupree & Bonner with 20 mins each ! Wow. Kinda tempting to play under 2H, but not feeling like going against Wagers' lean.
Hmm. EDD played 19 mins in the 1H; Dupree & Bonner with 20 mins each ! Wow. Kinda tempting to play under 2H, but not feeling like going against Wagers' lean.
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