BEST BET PLAY.................................
Mercury -3.5 over Sparks
Super busy right now, thankfully the other series is still going to give me some time.
Should have time later tonight.
Yea, 5 pts seems like alot, being 3 time defending conference champs should be worth something and keep the line very small I'd of thought.
But the way Lynx have played hasn't been so great.
Super busy right now, thankfully the other series is still going to give me some time.
Should have time later tonight.
Yea, 5 pts seems like alot, being 3 time defending conference champs should be worth something and keep the line very small I'd of thought.
But the way Lynx have played hasn't been so great.
ROUND 1.......................
Best bets --- 1-1 ATS
Regular plays 0-1-1 ATS
Series bets 0-1, lost 4 units.
We did get 1 of the 2 upsets with Sky beating Dream but unfortunately I did not take any action on the series.
The Mystics really disappointed me for sure.
On to the conference finals.....................
ROUND 1.......................
Best bets --- 1-1 ATS
Regular plays 0-1-1 ATS
Series bets 0-1, lost 4 units.
We did get 1 of the 2 upsets with Sky beating Dream but unfortunately I did not take any action on the series.
The Mystics really disappointed me for sure.
On to the conference finals.....................
POWER RAITNGS I.............................................
This PR is a bit more shooting efficiency heavy.
1. Mercury --- 12.76
2. Lynx --- 6.17
3. Sky (-.54)
4. Fever (-.84)
Mercury by 6.59 over Lynx.....................My line --- Mercury -9.59
Sky by .3 over Fever...............................My line --- Fever -2.7
The better team was 17-4 (80.9%) at winning the series since 2003 in conference finals. With 1 series rated even.
The better team by 2 points or more is 14-2 (87.5) at winning the series in the conference finals since 2003.
POWER RATING II..........................................
This PR is a bit rebound heavy
1. Mercury --- 54.91
2. Lynx --- 53.17
3. Fever --- 50.57
4. Sky --- 47.86
Mercury by 1.74 over Lynx
Fever by 2.71 over Sky
The better team is 16-6 (72.7%) at winning the series in conference finals since 2003.
The better team by 2 points or more is 12-2 (85.7%) in conference finals since 2003.
Both power ratings have an incredibly records when 2 pts or better.
But here's the deal...................if both PR's are 2 pts or better 11-0 since 2003.
Upsets tend to happen to the team favored by 2 pts or more when the other PR is much closer .65 or under or the opponent is the better team as we have here with the SKY. In this case the team better by 2 pts or more is just 4-4 at winning the series, in fact all 4 losses between both PR with teams better by 2 pts or more came in this situation.
By one PR being shooting efficiency heavier and the other being rebound heavier this exposes some teams weakness and tell us if they lack balance.
Mercury are clearly better than the Lynx while the other series looks to be dead-even by this measure and we know the Sky have had injuries in the regular season to their leading scorer and leading rebounder.
Once again this round I'd have to give the Sky a good chance to pull the upset and advance into the final.
We all know the Lynx have had injuries and their starters have missed many games, however, look at the difference between the Lynx and Mercury and the difference between the Sky and Fever.
The info suggest the Mercury are far better than the Lynx and could dominate this series, the info suggest the Sky are better than the Fever in one PR even with all those injuries included and would basically be a 50-50 proposition to win the series.
The Lynx have actually played better before the all-star break then they did after and continue not to put in complete games, they get out-played by a big amount in some areas basically every game even when they dominate some areas they get beat-up in other areas while the Mercury play a much more balanced game excelling in all most every area in far more games then the Lynx even with the starters in .
The Mercuties one true weakness, rebounding, is not a big enough weakness when you consider how complete this team is in all other areas, 2 pt shooting, 3 pt shooting Freethrows and turnovers the Mercury are easily able to win 3 or 4 areas and 2 or 3 areas by big amounts and that is something the Lynx just have not come close to doing even with their starters and that is the main reason the Lynx have been winning games by small margins, as they can not seem to put together complete games.
I'll be riding the Mercury this series........................................
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POWER RAITNGS I.............................................
This PR is a bit more shooting efficiency heavy.
1. Mercury --- 12.76
2. Lynx --- 6.17
3. Sky (-.54)
4. Fever (-.84)
Mercury by 6.59 over Lynx.....................My line --- Mercury -9.59
Sky by .3 over Fever...............................My line --- Fever -2.7
The better team was 17-4 (80.9%) at winning the series since 2003 in conference finals. With 1 series rated even.
The better team by 2 points or more is 14-2 (87.5) at winning the series in the conference finals since 2003.
POWER RATING II..........................................
This PR is a bit rebound heavy
1. Mercury --- 54.91
2. Lynx --- 53.17
3. Fever --- 50.57
4. Sky --- 47.86
Mercury by 1.74 over Lynx
Fever by 2.71 over Sky
The better team is 16-6 (72.7%) at winning the series in conference finals since 2003.
The better team by 2 points or more is 12-2 (85.7%) in conference finals since 2003.
Both power ratings have an incredibly records when 2 pts or better.
But here's the deal...................if both PR's are 2 pts or better 11-0 since 2003.
Upsets tend to happen to the team favored by 2 pts or more when the other PR is much closer .65 or under or the opponent is the better team as we have here with the SKY. In this case the team better by 2 pts or more is just 4-4 at winning the series, in fact all 4 losses between both PR with teams better by 2 pts or more came in this situation.
By one PR being shooting efficiency heavier and the other being rebound heavier this exposes some teams weakness and tell us if they lack balance.
Mercury are clearly better than the Lynx while the other series looks to be dead-even by this measure and we know the Sky have had injuries in the regular season to their leading scorer and leading rebounder.
Once again this round I'd have to give the Sky a good chance to pull the upset and advance into the final.
We all know the Lynx have had injuries and their starters have missed many games, however, look at the difference between the Lynx and Mercury and the difference between the Sky and Fever.
The info suggest the Mercury are far better than the Lynx and could dominate this series, the info suggest the Sky are better than the Fever in one PR even with all those injuries included and would basically be a 50-50 proposition to win the series.
The Lynx have actually played better before the all-star break then they did after and continue not to put in complete games, they get out-played by a big amount in some areas basically every game even when they dominate some areas they get beat-up in other areas while the Mercury play a much more balanced game excelling in all most every area in far more games then the Lynx even with the starters in .
The Mercuties one true weakness, rebounding, is not a big enough weakness when you consider how complete this team is in all other areas, 2 pt shooting, 3 pt shooting Freethrows and turnovers the Mercury are easily able to win 3 or 4 areas and 2 or 3 areas by big amounts and that is something the Lynx just have not come close to doing even with their starters and that is the main reason the Lynx have been winning games by small margins, as they can not seem to put together complete games.
I'll be riding the Mercury this series........................................
\
MY LINES WITH NUMBER 1 RANKED TEAM OFF A SU LOSS..............................
13-4 ATS (76.5%)
Difference of .01 - 2.49 between my line and closing line --- 8-4 ATS
Difference of 2.5 or better --- 5-0 ATS
Will we have a SU loss by the number 1 Mercury this round ?
MY LINES WITH NUMBER 1 RANKED TEAM OFF A SU LOSS..............................
13-4 ATS (76.5%)
Difference of .01 - 2.49 between my line and closing line --- 8-4 ATS
Difference of 2.5 or better --- 5-0 ATS
Will we have a SU loss by the number 1 Mercury this round ?
Backing the number 1 ranked team in my power ratings in every game of the playoffs since 2004 -2013..........................56-38 ATS (59.6%).
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1-1 ATS thus far.
Backing the number 1 ranked team in my power ratings in every game of the playoffs since 2004 -2013..........................56-38 ATS (59.6%).
[/Quote
1-1 ATS thus far.
Backing the no.1 ranked team with my lines having a 2.5 pt. or larger difference to the closing line has produced...... an insane .....15-1 ATS since 2004..
I'm coming with my 1st best bet of the playoffs on the Mecury in game 1.
Mercury -11 over Sparks
1-1 ATS with the Mercury and 16-2 ATS since 2004.
We have a play on the Mecury with this situation.
I'll wait it out and see what happens with the line, it seems to get support on the Lynx at 5. I think at this point might be more likely to drop then go up, but if I see some places going to 5.5 I may make a quick move and try and get the 5.
Backing the no.1 ranked team with my lines having a 2.5 pt. or larger difference to the closing line has produced...... an insane .....15-1 ATS since 2004..
I'm coming with my 1st best bet of the playoffs on the Mecury in game 1.
Mercury -11 over Sparks
1-1 ATS with the Mercury and 16-2 ATS since 2004.
We have a play on the Mecury with this situation.
I'll wait it out and see what happens with the line, it seems to get support on the Lynx at 5. I think at this point might be more likely to drop then go up, but if I see some places going to 5.5 I may make a quick move and try and get the 5.
Son of a gun, check the line this morning was sitting at 5, didn't go back today as was to busy, will have to settle for the 5. Hopefully it won't come back to bite me.
Mercury -5 over Lynx --- regular play
My startergy from here will be to back the Mercury in game 2 off a su win in game 1 with a regular play.
Back the Mercury with a best bet play off a a su loss in game 1.
Back the Mercury with a best bet play in game 3 off a game 1 win but not cover and a su loss and not cover in game 2.
Let's roll Mercury..................................
Son of a gun, check the line this morning was sitting at 5, didn't go back today as was to busy, will have to settle for the 5. Hopefully it won't come back to bite me.
Mercury -5 over Lynx --- regular play
My startergy from here will be to back the Mercury in game 2 off a su win in game 1 with a regular play.
Back the Mercury with a best bet play off a a su loss in game 1.
Back the Mercury with a best bet play in game 3 off a game 1 win but not cover and a su loss and not cover in game 2.
Let's roll Mercury..................................
Game 1 in the books, Mercury dominate the Lynx.
Best bets --- 1-1 ATS
Regular plays --- 1-1-1 ATS
Game 2 coming up.....................................
Game 1 in the books, Mercury dominate the Lynx.
Best bets --- 1-1 ATS
Regular plays --- 1-1-1 ATS
Game 2 coming up.....................................
MY LINES WITH NUMBER 1 RANKED TEAM OFF A SU LOSS..............................
13-4 ATS (76.5%)
Difference of .01 - 2.49 between my line and closing line --- 8-4 ATS
Difference of 2.5 or better --- 5-0 ATS
My Line ...........Mercury -9.59
Mercury -5.5 over Lynx - regular play
MY LINES WITH NUMBER 1 RANKED TEAM OFF A SU LOSS..............................
13-4 ATS (76.5%)
Difference of .01 - 2.49 between my line and closing line --- 8-4 ATS
Difference of 2.5 or better --- 5-0 ATS
My Line ...........Mercury -9.59
Mercury -5.5 over Lynx - regular play
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