I'm trying to learn the WNBA for betting purposes but so far between looking at trends, head to head and stuff on here I'm coming up empty. I know that some people in here know a lot about handicapping the WNBA and was wondering what key factors they look at before placing a wager.
I'm trying to learn the WNBA for betting purposes but so far between looking at trends, head to head and stuff on here I'm coming up empty. I know that some people in here know a lot about handicapping the WNBA and was wondering what key factors they look at before placing a wager.
As I mentioned before, the thing that appeals to me about the WNBA is the talent discrepancy between the top tier and lower level teams that is not present to such a degree in some of the major men's pro sports. I liken it to pre-conference college football.
In and of itself, basketball is much more predictable sport than baseball or say hockey. This is true in both men's and women's simply because you are accounting for fewer players impact on the game.
More so, the talent discrepancy is to the point that the addition of the top player in the WNBA draft immediately can turn a team into the contender. Minnesota was an average team before Maya Moore made them a championship contender. Phoenix played no defense before a rim protector like Griner makes them the championship favorite.
I've probably watched WNBA for the past 5 seasons, felt comfortable in my understanding for the past 3, and the trends I've noticed are the ones I mentioned above.
For info, I use this forum to get a general feeling for the games and gather information I may have missed. There are some good cappers like 44-Dimes in the past who were money. I use the Covers scorelines to monitor line movement/public opinion/reverse line movement. I use donbest.com to monitor injuries. And then I take my own thoughts from years of watching the WNBA and come up with a plan of action.
As I mentioned before, the thing that appeals to me about the WNBA is the talent discrepancy between the top tier and lower level teams that is not present to such a degree in some of the major men's pro sports. I liken it to pre-conference college football.
In and of itself, basketball is much more predictable sport than baseball or say hockey. This is true in both men's and women's simply because you are accounting for fewer players impact on the game.
More so, the talent discrepancy is to the point that the addition of the top player in the WNBA draft immediately can turn a team into the contender. Minnesota was an average team before Maya Moore made them a championship contender. Phoenix played no defense before a rim protector like Griner makes them the championship favorite.
I've probably watched WNBA for the past 5 seasons, felt comfortable in my understanding for the past 3, and the trends I've noticed are the ones I mentioned above.
For info, I use this forum to get a general feeling for the games and gather information I may have missed. There are some good cappers like 44-Dimes in the past who were money. I use the Covers scorelines to monitor line movement/public opinion/reverse line movement. I use donbest.com to monitor injuries. And then I take my own thoughts from years of watching the WNBA and come up with a plan of action.
So for today's games, my thoughts were that Tulsa would win the 1st game, they had a poor 1st half, no panic, absolutely hammered and doubled up the 2nd half, and made a nice profit when they came back and won outright.
Phoenix will win. Simply stated. The Western Conference is leagues ahead of the Eastern Conference, and the difference for Phoenix is that they play DEFENSE this year to add to that scorching offense. Will lay the heavy juice on the ML and just take out my money. But on a game like that I will watch the game (League Pass is cheap) and hedge out at half for a small loss if necessary.
Fever vs. Sky. Sky too banged up w/o Delle Donne and Vandersloot, and doesn't really shoot the 3. Will take Fever ML for a small amount as Fever have not been as reliable at home compared to years past.
Mystics vs. Sparks. Will probably lay off, but heavy lean Mystics with the points. Sparks have been inconsistent, and Mystics are a well coached team with Coach T, kind of a dark horse out of the East that may surprise some people. Was impressed by how they completely DOMINATED the boards against an above average rebounding team in Tulsa the other day, was the one day I bet against Tulsa 2nd half after they got obliterated the first. If Ogwumike doesn't play, give me the +7 or 6.5 now please.
So for today's games, my thoughts were that Tulsa would win the 1st game, they had a poor 1st half, no panic, absolutely hammered and doubled up the 2nd half, and made a nice profit when they came back and won outright.
Phoenix will win. Simply stated. The Western Conference is leagues ahead of the Eastern Conference, and the difference for Phoenix is that they play DEFENSE this year to add to that scorching offense. Will lay the heavy juice on the ML and just take out my money. But on a game like that I will watch the game (League Pass is cheap) and hedge out at half for a small loss if necessary.
Fever vs. Sky. Sky too banged up w/o Delle Donne and Vandersloot, and doesn't really shoot the 3. Will take Fever ML for a small amount as Fever have not been as reliable at home compared to years past.
Mystics vs. Sparks. Will probably lay off, but heavy lean Mystics with the points. Sparks have been inconsistent, and Mystics are a well coached team with Coach T, kind of a dark horse out of the East that may surprise some people. Was impressed by how they completely DOMINATED the boards against an above average rebounding team in Tulsa the other day, was the one day I bet against Tulsa 2nd half after they got obliterated the first. If Ogwumike doesn't play, give me the +7 or 6.5 now please.
I look at the Stars as a streaky 3 point shooting team that doesn't have a huge inside presence. Plus, Perkins is still injured for them, who is clutch. Teams like that I tend to fade on the road. Kind of like fading Duke on the road in Men's college basketball. I love the Shock getting a short line at home vs a team like that. Shock were winning until Stars hit 3 triples in a row TWICE, at half Stars were 6-10 from 3. Shock had edge on rebounds and a 2 or 3 to 1 edge on free throws. Down 7 at half, LOVED Shock to at least make it close on their home turf.
I look at the Stars as a streaky 3 point shooting team that doesn't have a huge inside presence. Plus, Perkins is still injured for them, who is clutch. Teams like that I tend to fade on the road. Kind of like fading Duke on the road in Men's college basketball. I love the Shock getting a short line at home vs a team like that. Shock were winning until Stars hit 3 triples in a row TWICE, at half Stars were 6-10 from 3. Shock had edge on rebounds and a 2 or 3 to 1 edge on free throws. Down 7 at half, LOVED Shock to at least make it close on their home turf.
The rosters, schedule and injuries. But injuries are so hard to find out most of the time. The teams twitter accounts about 10 mins before game time is good to look at.
As Ash said, its the discrepancy between the great teams and the bad teams. IMO, the great teams are Lynx, Mercury, Sparks (when fully fit), Sky (when fully fit with EDD) and Dream.
The other teams struggle in this league. There are several spots though to play them though against the better teams. I also like looking at point differential as well when teams are at home/away but some teams don't really care about home/away. Like the Liberty, they are decent at home but horrendous on the road and that was like the Dream last season (only went 4-13 S/U).
This season, the Fever are great on the road but bad at home. Thats the same with the Sparks. They are decent on the road but not so good at home right now. You gotta look into these kind of things as well. Now that the back end of the season is coming, I look for the lower teams to get swept under the carpet most of the time as the bigger and better teams will now push for the play-offs and try to secure a top 2 spot. The Dream have #1 in the bag pretty much in the East and that's the same for Mercury in the West. StraightWagers summed it up the other day, the WNBA schedule benefits the Mercury this season as they catch a lot of teams on B2B in Phoenix. Phoenix should wrap up #1 in West.
So that leaves the other teams pushing hard for the other 3 spots. The East is so open (apart from Dream) even the Liberty can still make the play-offs. As for the West, Lynx will get #2 and then I think Sparks #3 as and then either Storm or Stars
The rosters, schedule and injuries. But injuries are so hard to find out most of the time. The teams twitter accounts about 10 mins before game time is good to look at.
As Ash said, its the discrepancy between the great teams and the bad teams. IMO, the great teams are Lynx, Mercury, Sparks (when fully fit), Sky (when fully fit with EDD) and Dream.
The other teams struggle in this league. There are several spots though to play them though against the better teams. I also like looking at point differential as well when teams are at home/away but some teams don't really care about home/away. Like the Liberty, they are decent at home but horrendous on the road and that was like the Dream last season (only went 4-13 S/U).
This season, the Fever are great on the road but bad at home. Thats the same with the Sparks. They are decent on the road but not so good at home right now. You gotta look into these kind of things as well. Now that the back end of the season is coming, I look for the lower teams to get swept under the carpet most of the time as the bigger and better teams will now push for the play-offs and try to secure a top 2 spot. The Dream have #1 in the bag pretty much in the East and that's the same for Mercury in the West. StraightWagers summed it up the other day, the WNBA schedule benefits the Mercury this season as they catch a lot of teams on B2B in Phoenix. Phoenix should wrap up #1 in West.
So that leaves the other teams pushing hard for the other 3 spots. The East is so open (apart from Dream) even the Liberty can still make the play-offs. As for the West, Lynx will get #2 and then I think Sparks #3 as and then either Storm or Stars
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