Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game.

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game.
Skipster PM Skipster
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quote#101
Posted: 2/7/2017 3:10:32 PM
Van, I doubt you saw this, but I wrote about it just after the Seattle game. check this out.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102379349
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quote#102
Posted: 2/7/2017 3:17:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:


It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

You are looking for patterns in randomness.

There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.


Curious Vanz, in all your years of betting you must have bet on at least one or two games where you thought the outcome was fishy. It happens in Tennis (documented), it happens in college basketball (documented), it happened in baseball, long ago, (documented). Of course, I agree that there is no way in hell this particular game was fixed/rigged, but you must have bet on a game or two where you suspected something. A "friend" of mine once got a tip regarding a college game where team A was going to run up the score and cover a very large spread. The spread was over 25, Team A won by 45, even though they could  have easily stopped scoring once they were up big.
1129ken PM 1129ken
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quote#103
Posted: 2/7/2017 6:59:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

If they run, and kick the FG, they most likely win the game.

Instead, they get a holding penalty and dont score.

28-20 at the time, NE had 2 timeouts.

Incredible.


I had Patriots minus 3-05. Even late fourth quarter, I felt they had run out of time. The clock management on the part of the Falcons is explainable only as stupid and incompetent. I also thought the game was over when Julio made that incredible catch into really good coverage. Seemed easy from there that the Falcons would bleed the clock and take the field goal attempt. But, as you have repeatedly stressed, this type of stupidity happens all the time. I stopped betting the Jets when Rex Ryan was the coach because he clearly had no one watching the clock. Just a moron. And, does anyone want to start a thread on the imbecilic Mike Leach ?
anaheimRX PM anaheimRX
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quote#104
Posted: 2/7/2017 11:35:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:


It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

You are looking for patterns in randomness.

There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.


This is my point. All the moves Atlanta made were the exact opposite of what they should have done. They played exactly how you would play if you wanted to throw a game but have it look legitimate. 

The entire game is not scripted play-by-play, that would be logistically impossible. I would say that basically the powers that be said we will let Atlanta go up big in the 1st half and then the Falcons will start throwing it in the 2nd half. How they get there is irrelevant. The fact that Julian Edelman makes an amazing catch is pure coincidence, but makes it seem more legitimate. 

Why the F would you only run 4, 5 times in the 2nd half with that big of a lead? That defies all common sense and logic. Why would you not put 3 extra points on the board to make it a 2 score game with so little time left in the 4th quarter? 

Just look at NE's pace of play during their comeback in the 2nd half. Even Troy and Joe Buck commented that they were running way too much clock for a team that was down by that many points. 

Why did Malcolm Mitchell give himself up when he could've gotten up and ran from extra yards? 

Dude, the title of one of the articles that was cited is something like "The 16 things that had to happen for the Pats to comeback"

What is more plausible, that the exact 16 things they needed to happen occurred throughout the natural progression of the game, or that they were given the correct conditions to manifest?

From a pure odds standpoint, it is more likely that there was some kind of influence to make all those things happen. That is not debatable. 

On a side note, do you really think the Patriots slow start in the 1st half against the Texans was just bad play by the Patriots? Tom Brady has 27/0 TD/INT ratio in the regular season and suddenly he throws 2 picks in ONE HALF. 

I kept seeing Brady turning his back to the pass rusher and throwing up lame ducks. He is not that stupid. If he's really trying to win he wouldn't keep throwing up wobbly 50/50 balls everywhere in the Texans secondary. 

The Patriots could have destroyed the Texans in the 1st quarter but they kept it close on purpose. 2 picks and a muffed punt in the 1st half by the most disciplined team in the NFL? Give me a break. 

Think about it. If you were up big at halftime and the script was that the other team needed to come back and win, what would you do? 

-You'd keep throwing low percentage passes
-You'd stop running
-You'd snap the ball early to leave more time for the other team to have the ball
-You'd keep managing the clock improperly
-You'd leave sure points off the board
-You'd stop throwing to arguably the best wideout in the NFL

I only saw the game live so far. After I watch it again I will post my thoughts on anything I noticed in the replay. 

anaheimRX PM anaheimRX
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quote#105
Posted: 2/7/2017 11:39:04 PM
Also, think about what would be the best fairy tale ending to this particular game. 

Exactly what conspired, a big Atlanta lead at halftime and a miraculous comeback of the largest deficit in Super Bowl history, and a win in the first overtime in Super Bowl history by #12. 
vegasrebel417 PM vegasrebel417
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quote#106
Posted: 2/8/2017 12:38:14 AM
Completely anecdotal and without support but I feel like Rodgers is one of the QB's who doesn't make many of these mental lapses.


begginerboy PM begginerboy
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quote#107
Posted: 2/8/2017 12:40:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

Also, think about what would be the best fairy tale ending to this particular game. 

Exactly what conspired, a big Atlanta lead at halftime and a miraculous comeback of the largest deficit in Super Bowl history, and a win in the first overtime in Super Bowl history by #12. 

So how much did you have on the Falcons? You are obviously upset. As someone who actually believes in fixes, see post 102, I can tell you that the SB was not fixed. Why? Too many people would have to be involved. You think all those idiots would keep quiet and no one would ever know. That is not how fixes work. Point shaving involving 2-3 key players on a basketball team, a coach running up the score, a crooked ref or two, a desperate tennis player, a boxer, those kinds of things, not two football teams and coaches. That is absurd. 
anaheimRX PM anaheimRX
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quote#108
Posted: 2/8/2017 2:30:40 AM
I had mostly props and $40 on Atl, so I'm certainly not angry because I lost a small wager.

You can fix a game w 1 coach, player or ref. That's all you need. Oh, and specifically for the NFL the replay booth HQ. 
begginerboy PM begginerboy
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quote#109
Posted: 2/8/2017 2:35:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

I had mostly props and $40 on Atl, so I'm certainly not angry because I lost a small wager.

You can fix a game w 1 coach, player or ref. That's all you need. Oh, and specifically for the NFL the replay booth HQ. 

But you are not talking about one call in this game. 16 things went right for the Pats. At least 16! You are talking about a massive conspiracy that involved players and coaches from both teams and not one or two calls that swung the game. Quit wasting people's time.
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quote#110
Posted: 2/8/2017 3:45:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:


Teams just love handing Bill the SB trophy.. What else can you say? It's disgusting. I lost my behind on a game where ATL should've blown those guys out. I couldn't even cover the 3 points.  I'm in a lot of mental pain and agony guys, I seriously can't stop my heart from the adrenaline and pain of this loss. Quinn should resign. 

Ohhh and did you notice how the Pats had the green light to do anything and everything in that 4th qtr without repercussion? Blatantly holding in trenches and on field. Shoot me

Sure. Where you at? I just bought a new Draco with some of my SB winnings. Gonna spend the rest on some mods and ammo.
Seriously though. Does anybody
StumpTownStu PM StumpTownStu
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quote#111
Posted: 2/8/2017 3:50:05 AM
Know Bryants accuracy from that distance? I recall him being pretty accurate. I'm not one that buys into the fix talk, and i'd like to come up with another explanation, but I really can't. Run the ball 3 times and kick the FG. Even if you miss, even if it's blocked and returned for a TD, no right minded person would second guess you. I'm happy for the win and the money that comes with it but I can't help but question that whole sequence of events.
JohnKreese PM JohnKreese
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quote#112
Posted: 2/8/2017 2:22:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JohnKreese:


I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple.  Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made?  Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them.   We see this more and more in financial markets these days.  “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what.  Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes.

Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you.   If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened…


Wow.  I COMPLETELY misread what you meant by "fix".  I was providing a "fix" for the bad coaching decisions.  hahaha.  oops.
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quote#113
Posted: 2/8/2017 11:32:46 PM
I'm from Georgia and been watching the Atlanta Falcons play for 50 years.They are known for blowing leads and making bone headed play calls.The Coach said after the game that they been playing that style of football all year and Ne was stopping the run somewhat in the 2nd half so we were just running our offense.NE spotted them 14 points off turnovers and Brady throwing a pick 6 in the Superbowl??? that garbage just don't happen.The Play of the Game that nobody is even talking about...is Belichick choosing to kick the FG in the 2nd half making the score 28-12.If he goes for it and they don't make it there isn't enough time to overcome the deficit.
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quote#114
Posted: 2/9/2017 12:00:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BetFriends:

Arguably, they were only in the lead at that point because Pats spotted them the 3 TDs early through sloppy passing and catching, and a defense that wasn't even playing until the 3rd quarter.

AMEN Brother ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ What he said,Hell they spotted Atlanta 14 points off turnovers and played the absolute WORST 1st half they  EVER have! Atlanta is just lucky they didn't get blown out from the Start....and BTW if anything was gonna be Fixed it sure as hell wouldn't have been in the Patriots favor?WoW Come on Man! 
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quote#115
Posted: 2/10/2017 2:18:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

You guys and the rigged stuff.

It is funny actually.



No way this game was rigged ...they were on Atlanta
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quote#116
Posted: 2/11/2017 12:08:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

While I am on the subject....

I am not impressed by the almighty Belickek either.

The amount of time they took on their last three drives (before the final TD drive) was incredible.

It was like they won only because they werent as dumb as ATL.

bill seems to be quite good at that... two years ago souldnt he be calling timeouts when seattle was at the 2 yard line??

he got lucky that seattle didnt run it and that butler came out with the pick, but otherwise seattle would have probably run the clock out.
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quote#117
Posted: 2/11/2017 12:29:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

Know Bryants accuracy from that distance? I recall him being pretty accurate. I'm not one that buys into the fix talk, and i'd like to come up with another explanation, but I really can't. Run the ball 3 times and kick the FG. Even if you miss, even if it's blocked and returned for a TD, no right minded person would second guess you. I'm happy for the win and the money that comes with it but I can't help but question that whole sequence of events.

dont ever underestimate how stupid humans can be... this guys talk about fixes like the are all in "in it"... 

i understand that a couple of players can get together and plan to throw a game, or that a ref can (all by himself) can influence results, but to think all players, coaches, refs know about it is one of the most idiotic things ever, pro players are not to very good actors.

when you start having doubts like damn can this be a conspiracy?? just refer to the Occams razor principle.
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