Reid's win-loss record is now 16-2 in games following a bye week. This guy really know how to prepare his team with bigger rest. I don't know how he is doing that... maybe he is some kind of magician. KC turn their opponents in TO machines this season. I really like Big Ben as QB but he make too risky moves sometimes. That won't be good against well balanced and good defense team like Chiefs. KC speacial teams are monster... special teams are so underrated but when it comes to postseason I rely on them. Since 2001 in postseason Favorites (Chiefs) in revenge spot (lost previous matchup in the same season) are 19-9 SU (6-2 in Div Round). Steelers were in the same spot last postseason against Broncos and lost by 7. I know they were depleted in that game but still like the numbers.
Reid's win-loss record is now 16-2 in games following a bye week. This guy really know how to prepare his team with bigger rest. I don't know how he is doing that... maybe he is some kind of magician. KC turn their opponents in TO machines this season. I really like Big Ben as QB but he make too risky moves sometimes. That won't be good against well balanced and good defense team like Chiefs. KC speacial teams are monster... special teams are so underrated but when it comes to postseason I rely on them. Since 2001 in postseason Favorites (Chiefs) in revenge spot (lost previous matchup in the same season) are 19-9 SU (6-2 in Div Round). Steelers were in the same spot last postseason against Broncos and lost by 7. I know they were depleted in that game but still like the numbers.
Nice run. I really like that KC pick. I'm curious to know what makes you lean towards Seattle? As you said, it seems to be the hardest game to cap this week.
Nice run. I really like that KC pick. I'm curious to know what makes you lean towards Seattle? As you said, it seems to be the hardest game to cap this week.
Nice run. I really like that KC pick. I'm curious to know what makes you lean towards Seattle? As you said, it seems to be the hardest game to cap this week.
BOL
Playoff experience and huge coach advantage are getting more than FG points. My lean is only based on that. I personally like Falcons offense but don't know how they will look in a must win or go home situation against team that play in postseason every next year and know better how to win such games.
Nice run. I really like that KC pick. I'm curious to know what makes you lean towards Seattle? As you said, it seems to be the hardest game to cap this week.
BOL
Playoff experience and huge coach advantage are getting more than FG points. My lean is only based on that. I personally like Falcons offense but don't know how they will look in a must win or go home situation against team that play in postseason every next year and know better how to win such games.
Andy Reid doesn't sleep. He's obsessed with film and preparation. I've read articles a few years back that his obsession with football has caused major issues with his family life.
The guy is addicted to football. Give a junkie an extra week and there's your results.
Andy Reid doesn't sleep. He's obsessed with film and preparation. I've read articles a few years back that his obsession with football has caused major issues with his family life.
The guy is addicted to football. Give a junkie an extra week and there's your results.
Patriots line is so inflated. I know they shutout Texans earlier in the season but 16 points in playoff game ? Since 2001 Postseason underdogs that scored less then 9 points in the previous matchup (Houston qualify as they lost 0-27 in September against NE) are 13-4-1 ATS. It seems sportsbooks inflate the line in such games cause of the previous game where the underdog looks like garbage. Since 2001 there are only two postseason underdogs that get two touchdowns or more in points.
Feb 03, 2002 Superbowl Patriots + 14 covered against Rams (they actually win outright with 20-17 in one of the biggest betting upsets in NFL history). Jan 20, 2008 AFC Championship Chargers + 14.5 covered against Patriots (they lost 12-21) Jan 14, 2017 AFC Divisional Texans + 16 ??? against Patriots
Patriots are involved with all three games. Let see if the history will repeat and Texans will cover on Saturday night.
I know Houston offense is total crap. I know Assweiler is one of the worst QBs in the league. But 16 points are inflate line and laying such number is bad bet despite the outcome of the game. Texans defense is still one of the best in the league and with some garbage TD at the late 4th when Pats will already look for AFC Championship game I belive Texans will cover this. Pats by 14. Will post when I get my final line and odds. Packers writeup is coming up.
Patriots line is so inflated. I know they shutout Texans earlier in the season but 16 points in playoff game ? Since 2001 Postseason underdogs that scored less then 9 points in the previous matchup (Houston qualify as they lost 0-27 in September against NE) are 13-4-1 ATS. It seems sportsbooks inflate the line in such games cause of the previous game where the underdog looks like garbage. Since 2001 there are only two postseason underdogs that get two touchdowns or more in points.
Feb 03, 2002 Superbowl Patriots + 14 covered against Rams (they actually win outright with 20-17 in one of the biggest betting upsets in NFL history). Jan 20, 2008 AFC Championship Chargers + 14.5 covered against Patriots (they lost 12-21) Jan 14, 2017 AFC Divisional Texans + 16 ??? against Patriots
Patriots are involved with all three games. Let see if the history will repeat and Texans will cover on Saturday night.
I know Houston offense is total crap. I know Assweiler is one of the worst QBs in the league. But 16 points are inflate line and laying such number is bad bet despite the outcome of the game. Texans defense is still one of the best in the league and with some garbage TD at the late 4th when Pats will already look for AFC Championship game I belive Texans will cover this. Pats by 14. Will post when I get my final line and odds. Packers writeup is coming up.
Andy Reid doesn't sleep. He's obsessed with film and preparation. I've read articles a few years back that his obsession with football has caused major issues with his family life.
The guy is addicted to football. Give a junkie an extra week and there's your results.
BOL Funk
Yep I know that. I actually like Steelers more as a team and secretly want to see them against Pats in AFC Championship game but I don't think betting on favorite teams will bring me money. Stick to your head not to your heart when it comes to risking money.
Andy Reid doesn't sleep. He's obsessed with film and preparation. I've read articles a few years back that his obsession with football has caused major issues with his family life.
The guy is addicted to football. Give a junkie an extra week and there's your results.
BOL Funk
Yep I know that. I actually like Steelers more as a team and secretly want to see them against Pats in AFC Championship game but I don't think betting on favorite teams will bring me money. Stick to your head not to your heart when it comes to risking money.
I forgot to post my second trend for Texans at Patriots game.
Since 2001 in postseason teams that fail to score more than 14 points in the previous two matchups (Texans qualify as they lost to Pats with 0-27 and 6-27 in last two meetings) are 14-5-1 ATS. Underdogs in the same situation are 8-1-1 ATS! This trend again show us that playoffs are different animal and regular season blowouts mean nothing when it comes to win or go home situations. This blowouts help us to get excellent underdog lines.
I forgot to post my second trend for Texans at Patriots game.
Since 2001 in postseason teams that fail to score more than 14 points in the previous two matchups (Texans qualify as they lost to Pats with 0-27 and 6-27 in last two meetings) are 14-5-1 ATS. Underdogs in the same situation are 8-1-1 ATS! This trend again show us that playoffs are different animal and regular season blowouts mean nothing when it comes to win or go home situations. This blowouts help us to get excellent underdog lines.
Patriots line is so inflated. I know they shutout Texans earlier in the season but 16 points in playoff game ? Since 2001 Postseason underdogs that scored less then 9 points in the previous matchup (Houston qualify as they lost 0-27 in September against NE) are 13-4-1 ATS. It seems sportsbooks inflate the line in such games cause of the previous game where the underdog looks like garbage. Since 2001 there are only two postseason underdogs that get two touchdowns or more in points.
Feb 03, 2002 Superbowl Patriots + 14 covered against Rams (they actually win outright with 20-17 in one of the biggest betting upsets in NFL history). Jan 20, 2008 AFC Championship Chargers + 14.5 covered against Patriots (they lost 12-21) Jan 14, 2017 AFC Divisional Texans + 16 ??? against Patriots
Patriots are involved with all three games. Let see if the history will repeat and Texans will cover on Saturday night.
I know Houston offense is total crap. I know Assweiler is one of the worst QBs in the league. But 16 points are inflate line and laying such number is bad bet despite the outcome of the game. Texans defense is still one of the best in the league and with some garbage TD at the late 4th when Pats will already look for AFC Championship game I belive Texans will cover this. Pats by 14. Will post when I get my final line and odds. Packers writeup is coming up.
But then there is this:
Largest Playoff Lines -- Past 40 Seasons
In the past 40 postseasons, a team has been favored by more than 14 points only four times (the three favorites of at least 16 points all covered).
Patriots line is so inflated. I know they shutout Texans earlier in the season but 16 points in playoff game ? Since 2001 Postseason underdogs that scored less then 9 points in the previous matchup (Houston qualify as they lost 0-27 in September against NE) are 13-4-1 ATS. It seems sportsbooks inflate the line in such games cause of the previous game where the underdog looks like garbage. Since 2001 there are only two postseason underdogs that get two touchdowns or more in points.
Feb 03, 2002 Superbowl Patriots + 14 covered against Rams (they actually win outright with 20-17 in one of the biggest betting upsets in NFL history). Jan 20, 2008 AFC Championship Chargers + 14.5 covered against Patriots (they lost 12-21) Jan 14, 2017 AFC Divisional Texans + 16 ??? against Patriots
Patriots are involved with all three games. Let see if the history will repeat and Texans will cover on Saturday night.
I know Houston offense is total crap. I know Assweiler is one of the worst QBs in the league. But 16 points are inflate line and laying such number is bad bet despite the outcome of the game. Texans defense is still one of the best in the league and with some garbage TD at the late 4th when Pats will already look for AFC Championship game I belive Texans will cover this. Pats by 14. Will post when I get my final line and odds. Packers writeup is coming up.
But then there is this:
Largest Playoff Lines -- Past 40 Seasons
In the past 40 postseasons, a team has been favored by more than 14 points only four times (the three favorites of at least 16 points all covered).
Patriots line is so inflated. I know they shutout Texans earlier in the season but 16 points in playoff game ? Since 2001 Postseason underdogs that scored less then 9 points in the previous matchup (Houston qualify as they lost 0-27 in September against NE) are 13-4-1 ATS. It seems sportsbooks inflate the line in such games cause of the previous game where the underdog looks like garbage. Since 2001 there are only two postseason underdogs that get two touchdowns or more in points.
Feb 03, 2002 Superbowl Patriots + 14 covered against Rams (they actually win outright with 20-17 in one of the biggest betting upsets in NFL history). Jan 20, 2008 AFC Championship Chargers + 14.5 covered against Patriots (they lost 12-21) Jan 14, 2017 AFC Divisional Texans + 16 ??? against Patriots
Patriots are involved with all three games. Let see if the history will repeat and Texans will cover on Saturday night.
I know Houston offense is total crap. I know Assweiler is one of the worst QBs in the league. But 16 points are inflate line and laying such number is bad bet despite the outcome of the game. Texans defense is still one of the best in the league and with some garbage TD at the late 4th when Pats will already look for AFC Championship game I belive Texans will cover this. Pats by 14. Will post when I get my final line and odds. Packers writeup is coming up.
Patriots line is so inflated. I know they shutout Texans earlier in the season but 16 points in playoff game ? Since 2001 Postseason underdogs that scored less then 9 points in the previous matchup (Houston qualify as they lost 0-27 in September against NE) are 13-4-1 ATS. It seems sportsbooks inflate the line in such games cause of the previous game where the underdog looks like garbage. Since 2001 there are only two postseason underdogs that get two touchdowns or more in points.
Feb 03, 2002 Superbowl Patriots + 14 covered against Rams (they actually win outright with 20-17 in one of the biggest betting upsets in NFL history). Jan 20, 2008 AFC Championship Chargers + 14.5 covered against Patriots (they lost 12-21) Jan 14, 2017 AFC Divisional Texans + 16 ??? against Patriots
Patriots are involved with all three games. Let see if the history will repeat and Texans will cover on Saturday night.
I know Houston offense is total crap. I know Assweiler is one of the worst QBs in the league. But 16 points are inflate line and laying such number is bad bet despite the outcome of the game. Texans defense is still one of the best in the league and with some garbage TD at the late 4th when Pats will already look for AFC Championship game I belive Texans will cover this. Pats by 14. Will post when I get my final line and odds. Packers writeup is coming up.
begginerboy stats are for favorites before 2001. My stats are since 2001 and I use sportsdatabase as a tool to track them and there Pats superbowl line is set to 14 and Chargers to 14.5. Thanks for the stats before 2001. So I can't rely on that that teams with 14+ points in playoffs are golden. In Bill Belichik's era Pats were 20 times favorites with 14 points or more. They are 20-0 SU and 11-9 ATS. 14-0 SU and 7-7 ATS in non-divisional games. These big favorites numbers are 50:50 in long term. So I will stick to my other two trends that I posted about teams that score small amount of points in the previous game.
begginerboy stats are for favorites before 2001. My stats are since 2001 and I use sportsdatabase as a tool to track them and there Pats superbowl line is set to 14 and Chargers to 14.5. Thanks for the stats before 2001. So I can't rely on that that teams with 14+ points in playoffs are golden. In Bill Belichik's era Pats were 20 times favorites with 14 points or more. They are 20-0 SU and 11-9 ATS. 14-0 SU and 7-7 ATS in non-divisional games. These big favorites numbers are 50:50 in long term. So I will stick to my other two trends that I posted about teams that score small amount of points in the previous game.
Here are some stats that proof why Aaron Rodgers have to be your guy in NFL playoffs.
Aaron Rodgers have 14 postseason starts with Green Bay Packers.
Aaron Rodgers is 9-4-1 ATS overall. Aaron Rodgers is 6-2-0 ATS at road. Aaron Rodgers is 5-1-1 ATS as underdog with avg line 3.7.
With other words. We all know this guy is special. We all know he is arguably best QB in NFL. We should know. When it comes to postseason you have two valid options. Put your money on Aaron Rodgers arms or just stay away. Betting against this dude is as you see from my trends.
Let me show you one great trend. Since 2001 in playoffs Home Favorites that won 8 or less games in the previous regular season (Cowboys had 4-12 record last campaign) are 16-18 SU and 8-25-1 (24.2%) ATS with avg line - 4.9.
I see amazing value on Green Bay Packers ML at + 170.
Here are some stats that proof why Aaron Rodgers have to be your guy in NFL playoffs.
Aaron Rodgers have 14 postseason starts with Green Bay Packers.
Aaron Rodgers is 9-4-1 ATS overall. Aaron Rodgers is 6-2-0 ATS at road. Aaron Rodgers is 5-1-1 ATS as underdog with avg line 3.7.
With other words. We all know this guy is special. We all know he is arguably best QB in NFL. We should know. When it comes to postseason you have two valid options. Put your money on Aaron Rodgers arms or just stay away. Betting against this dude is as you see from my trends.
Let me show you one great trend. Since 2001 in playoffs Home Favorites that won 8 or less games in the previous regular season (Cowboys had 4-12 record last campaign) are 16-18 SU and 8-25-1 (24.2%) ATS with avg line - 4.9.
I see amazing value on Green Bay Packers ML at + 170.
I dig in the database and realize that great offensive teams (like Falcons) are bad ATS in the postseason recent years. Maybe sportsbook somehow inflate the lines for the hot offensive teams and that's the reason why they perform bad against the spread. Here are some numbers that I found:
All stats are since 2001.
In Divisional Round/Championship Round/Superbowl -> Teams that avg 395 or more passing+rushing yards (Falcons) are 14-16 SU and 8-22-0 (26.7%) ATS with avg line - 4.2.
In Divisional Round/Championship Round/Superbowl -> Favorites that avg 30 or more points per game (Falcons) are 16-13 SU and 18-21-0 (27.6%) ATS with avg line - 7.3.
In Wildcard Round/Divisional Round -> Teams that received 30 or more points in their previous game (Saints scored 32 to the Falcons) are 11-25-1 (0.6%) ATS with avg line -0.3. Favorites are 5-13-1 ATS with avg line - 6.3.
Not some great findings but still something to think about. Falcons look like the better team but who knows. Pete Carroll is one of the great minds in NFL right now. It could be FG game easily.
I dig in the database and realize that great offensive teams (like Falcons) are bad ATS in the postseason recent years. Maybe sportsbook somehow inflate the lines for the hot offensive teams and that's the reason why they perform bad against the spread. Here are some numbers that I found:
All stats are since 2001.
In Divisional Round/Championship Round/Superbowl -> Teams that avg 395 or more passing+rushing yards (Falcons) are 14-16 SU and 8-22-0 (26.7%) ATS with avg line - 4.2.
In Divisional Round/Championship Round/Superbowl -> Favorites that avg 30 or more points per game (Falcons) are 16-13 SU and 18-21-0 (27.6%) ATS with avg line - 7.3.
In Wildcard Round/Divisional Round -> Teams that received 30 or more points in their previous game (Saints scored 32 to the Falcons) are 11-25-1 (0.6%) ATS with avg line -0.3. Favorites are 5-13-1 ATS with avg line - 6.3.
Not some great findings but still something to think about. Falcons look like the better team but who knows. Pete Carroll is one of the great minds in NFL right now. It could be FG game easily.
In Divisional Round/Championship Round/Superbowl -> Favorites that
avg 30 or more points per game (Falcons) are 16-13 SU and 8-21-0
(27.6%) ATS with avg line - 7.3.
In Divisional Round/Championship Round/Superbowl -> Favorites that
avg 30 or more points per game (Falcons) are 16-13 SU and 8-21-0
(27.6%) ATS with avg line - 7.3.
Seattle Seahawks ML + Green Bay Packers ML (+ 685)
I know it's a long shot but I will try this one with some money. Currently NFC is so equal that these underdogs really have some nice value. The odds (+685) are amazing and I'm still backing (my personal opinion) best coach in NFC + best QB in the league. Try it even with 10-20 bucks for fun. I think it totally worth the "risk".
Seattle Seahawks ML + Green Bay Packers ML (+ 685)
I know it's a long shot but I will try this one with some money. Currently NFC is so equal that these underdogs really have some nice value. The odds (+685) are amazing and I'm still backing (my personal opinion) best coach in NFC + best QB in the league. Try it even with 10-20 bucks for fun. I think it totally worth the "risk".
Seems like a lot of people are in love with Falcons this weekend. Every good trend that I found support Seahawks. Here is another one:
Since 2001 in postseason teams that avg 17 or more sack yards per game against teams that avg less than 17 sack yards per game are 42-24-2 (63.6%) ATS. The trends is already 2-0 ATS this postseason. Three teams qualify for this weekend
Seems like a lot of people are in love with Falcons this weekend. Every good trend that I found support Seahawks. Here is another one:
Since 2001 in postseason teams that avg 17 or more sack yards per game against teams that avg less than 17 sack yards per game are 42-24-2 (63.6%) ATS. The trends is already 2-0 ATS this postseason. Three teams qualify for this weekend
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