Before it gets mentioned, "6-2" was a typo and should read 5-2 for the YTD record. My apologies, but it seemed to be a bit Freudian:
Quote Originally Posted by Jimmus:
Arizona CARDINALS -3 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers -- Risking $550 to win $500
Alright, another good start to the week. This weekend's games seem a little closer to having accurate lines, but there are still a few that I like.
Philadelphia EAGLES -3 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions -- Risking $1100 to win $1000
- Okay I'll bite. This league is very much a "but what have you done for me lately" league. Ask that to Detroit and Philly and get two very different answers. The Eagles sold three of their biggest pieces in the past three years in their QB, star RB and star WR. In return they were able to add a LOT on defense, to the result of allowing the least points per game this year (NINE) and 3rd least yards per game (274.3). On top of that they have a rookie quarterback who is not making mistakes and protects the ball. Oh did I mention they have the second highest scoring offense in the NFL currently behind only the Atlanta falcons who have had a 48 and 45 point game? Let's look at the other side. Detroit Lions are the middle of the pack on offense putting up 23.8 points per game. The last team the Eagles faced was the Steelers who despite managing 3 points vs. the Eagles are still averaging 27 points per game. Detroits defense ranks 22 vs. the rush, so expect Murray to run up and down the field here and have a combined 145+ yards and a couple of scores. Things in Detroit are going to get worse before they get better. Prediction 27 - 17.
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers o48 (-110) -- Risking $550 to win $500
- The Steelers have some defensive injuries (yes, they did last week too), and the Jets secondary is laughable. This is going to be a game where the Steelers might get out to an early 2 TD lead and the Jets will be forced to throw throw throw. Let's call this game something to the tune of 31 - 23 for the Steelers. The Steelers almost covered this spread by themselves last week against a better defense.
Carolina PANTHERS -4.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Risking $825 to win $750
- After week 3 and 4 I have heard so many people giving up on the Pathers and saying how terrible they are this year. This is ridiculous. Are they the same team as last year? No, not a chance. Can they put a beating on the Bucs? Yes, most definitely. So they lost to 2 top-5 defenses and the league's #1 offense... They also shredded the 49ers (who allow the 6th most points per game in the league even after going 28-0 in their first game). Guess who ranks second last in the league for points per game allowed? The Bucs. THE COMBINED RECORD OF THE TEAMS CAROLINA HAS LOST TO: 11-1. The combined record of the teams the bucs lost to is 9-4, which is also impressive, but just not quite as. Also when I look at Jameis Winston's game to game stats... 4TD 1INT, followed by 1TD 4 INT, then 3TD 1INT, then 0TD 2INT - this guy is so damn inconsistent it's not even funny. Cam's only embarassing performance was agains the second best defense in the NFL with the highest turnover margin - the Vikings. Don't give up on the Panthers, this line is whack. Carolina wins by double digits 34 - 14.
Might add one or two more, still evaluating some leans. I like the bengals on the road, Colts vs. Bears o48, Cleveland +22 Jets +19 and Tennessee +13 in a teaser, Rams at home, Raiders at home, but still need to look more at all of those matchups.