If there were ever a time for major regression to the mean, it would be week 5 of the NFL season. In an almost impossible run of odd luck (try flipping a coin 15 times and getting 14 heads to understand how strange this is) people making picks in the biggest NFL handicapping contest have been totally inept these past 3 weeks. The top 5 teams selected these past 3 weeks have only won only one time but lost 14 times against the spread over this stretch. Trust me, you cant be that bad even if you wanted to! So now what? Dont follow my advice, but this HAS to correct. The 50% coin flipping gods have a way of getting u closer and closer to exactly 50% with enough flips. Flip that coin 100,000 times and you will get 50% heads and 50% tails. Even with a 1-14 start! Follow public consensus these next few weeks and you will probably do damn well! On the other hand, I could care less about consensus. STILL, 1-14 collective ignorance is a fascinating sight to behold!
If there were ever a time for major regression to the mean, it would be week 5 of the NFL season. In an almost impossible run of odd luck (try flipping a coin 15 times and getting 14 heads to understand how strange this is) people making picks in the biggest NFL handicapping contest have been totally inept these past 3 weeks. The top 5 teams selected these past 3 weeks have only won only one time but lost 14 times against the spread over this stretch. Trust me, you cant be that bad even if you wanted to! So now what? Dont follow my advice, but this HAS to correct. The 50% coin flipping gods have a way of getting u closer and closer to exactly 50% with enough flips. Flip that coin 100,000 times and you will get 50% heads and 50% tails. Even with a 1-14 start! Follow public consensus these next few weeks and you will probably do damn well! On the other hand, I could care less about consensus. STILL, 1-14 collective ignorance is a fascinating sight to behold!
So what you are saying is that this season has been the toughest to date so far for contestants and the winner is likely to have won due to luck vs. skill?
So what you are saying is that this season has been the toughest to date so far for contestants and the winner is likely to have won due to luck vs. skill?
So what you are saying is that this season has been the toughest to date so far for contestants and the winner is likely to have won due to luck vs. skill?
I'm not saying that at all. How do u draw that conclusion? If you look at the long term record of the so called best cappers in the world, you will not be impressed. What i am suggesting is that most people are clueless. And it's actually quite exciting to see how poor Joe Capper has done this year. It means you have to think for yourself, and not coattail others. It also means there is more opportunity so far for those with a unique, perhaps contrarian or rare capping approach. More than anything, its a fascinating run of strange bad luck too. It makes the whole challenge more fascinating when most are stumbling. Capping is inherently difficult. And how can u ignore the regression to the mean,potential here. The bubble has to burst soon. Good luck!
So what you are saying is that this season has been the toughest to date so far for contestants and the winner is likely to have won due to luck vs. skill?
I'm not saying that at all. How do u draw that conclusion? If you look at the long term record of the so called best cappers in the world, you will not be impressed. What i am suggesting is that most people are clueless. And it's actually quite exciting to see how poor Joe Capper has done this year. It means you have to think for yourself, and not coattail others. It also means there is more opportunity so far for those with a unique, perhaps contrarian or rare capping approach. More than anything, its a fascinating run of strange bad luck too. It makes the whole challenge more fascinating when most are stumbling. Capping is inherently difficult. And how can u ignore the regression to the mean,potential here. The bubble has to burst soon. Good luck!
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