I'm all over the Bengals -7 for 5 units.
Also put a few pennies on jeremy Hill at 6/1 for 1st TD scorer as I think Miami's run D is going to be exploited in this game. And also took AJ Green ANYTIME TD Scorer at 3/4.
This game falls into two basic but profitable angles I like to use: step down in opponent quality is the first one. This is a total step down from playing the SB champs to playing the worst team in the AFC East and the Bengals will not let this opportunity to turn around their 1-2 record go by them.
I actually tried to use this angle last week and play ON the Phins with it, but it didn't work because they are so terrible, especially at QB. Last week Tannehill threw a pick on the 2nd play of the game, giving the Browns the ball in the red zone after they had deferred. But Kessler fumbled it right back to Miami. Of course then Ryan INTannehill, obviously upset that his earlier attempt to gift the Browns a TD lead went awry, threw a pick6. But they came back and took the lead and later in the game they started to pull away and had a pointspread covering 11 point lead but they blew that and nearly blew the game. They're brutal.
The other angle is simple too, go against a bad team off a win and a good team off a loss. The dregs of the NFL rarely can string 2 wins together and the Bengals are not the basement dweller of the AFC North, they are in the top 2 of that div IMO but their record doesn't reflect it. Yet. It's still early in the season but this is as close to a must win for Cinci as you get this early. Losing to Pitt on the road and the champs at home isn't ideal, but to lose this game would be like being in a total free fall.
An interesting stat I looked at during the Pitt/Philly game was about teams that score a certain amount in the first half and how they fare in Wins and Losses the last few years (they put this stat up because Pitt usually had a lot more points than what they had in Philly 1st half). I noticed that the teams on the list who scored a lot in the 1st Half were the best SU and ATS teams of the last few years (except one, who was probablyabout average). I had usually looked for teams that have good 2nd half stats that can close out games as we all hate getting moosed in the late stages but it seems to me now the 1st half is actually very valuable to look at and lo and what I'm going to look at now. I guess I had this thing about the 2nd half in my head because you always remember those crappy backdoors or blown leads.
Anyway, lo and behold, the team ranked dead last in 1st half points scored this year is: MIAMI.
I think this is a crucial stat as well considering the nature of this contest, because if Cinci gets a lead, they are not going to be playing prevent like the Pats did, they know they need this win to get back on track for a trip to the playoffs and will step on the Phins neck to get a big confidence building blowout win - something Miami couldn't do vs Cody Kessler who is garbage and was a rookie starting on the road with one week prep and no experienced receivers either.
Considering also that despite losing last week, Cincinnatti's run game, which had been stagnant, showed a lot more life, and their run defense stepped up to only allow 2.3 ypc and they should be able to just get a 1st half lead and then run it down Miami's throat. The Phins gave up 5.3 ypc to the Browns last week. Most teams, when facing a rookie QB, will stack up to stop the run and make the rook beat you with his arm but Miami couldn't even stop the Cleveland run game.
The fact that Cinci's run offense came to life with 143 yards last week while the Phins got their usual 83 avg is a good omen for Cinci backers. The Bengals have 2 competent RBs. Miami on the other hand, has lost Foster and is relying on 2 young guys, Jay Ajayi (who I like) and Kenyan Drake, who won the game for them last week, but as is typical of young players, will probably come out and play bad the next week.
The Dolphins leading rusher ON THE SEASON is Ryan Tannehill!
When your QB is your leading rusher, your offense is dead last in 1st half points scored, next to last in 3rd down conversions per game (only 2 last week vs Cleveland, Cinci had 5 vs Denver), and you need OT to beat the Browns with a 3rd string QB at home, I am VERY happy to go against you when you are now on the road vs a playoff team off 2 straight losses that is going to take no prisoners, especially with Burfict coming back to scare the living daylights out of those green Miami RBs (the guy injured Leveon Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben all in the one year). And I'd say after last season's penalty that cost them the playoff game, he'll be mindful to not draw flags.
I know a lot of people go on about this Andy Dalton in primetime thing, it's garbage. Miami is not on Cinci's level and there is zero chance of Cinci overlooking this game with their record. A home win here and they're .500 and right behind the Steelers and Ravens.
Not only do I think the Phins will have trouble stopping the run, but they face a different kind of WR in AJ Green who is tall and athletic, whereas the Pats/Seahawks/Browns guys are more small speedster types.I think he's nearly guaranteed to get a TD tonight which is why I backed him at short odds of 3/4 to get one.