Long time sports bettor and have lurked off and on this forum for years. Recent events have compelled me to create an account and start entering the contests and maybe posting a bit here and there.
I am very curious about your opinion on something. Do you believe that in pretty much all major sports, (MLB, Football, Baketball) in pro and the collegiate level, that for the most part all teams are always playing their hearts out and giving 100%?
It seems to me that for some reason this is a difficult thing to wrap my mind around. It would be naive to think that with all the money involved in this industry that nothing shady ever happens. But when handicapping do you always act under the assumption that these two groups of men are all going out there and giving their 100%?
It seems it would be so much more simpler to handicap if we knew for sure that this is indeed the case.
For example theres so much other BS... reverse line movement, inside info, bad apple referees, the possibilities of rigged games, human error, lack of effort and motivation etc. These are after all human beings and there is a human factor, they are not machines.
Anyway I live in Vegas and betting and handicapping is all I do so I look forward to posting some plays and contributing here.
Really looking forward to peoples responses on this. BOL to all.
Long time sports bettor and have lurked off and on this forum for years. Recent events have compelled me to create an account and start entering the contests and maybe posting a bit here and there.
I am very curious about your opinion on something. Do you believe that in pretty much all major sports, (MLB, Football, Baketball) in pro and the collegiate level, that for the most part all teams are always playing their hearts out and giving 100%?
It seems to me that for some reason this is a difficult thing to wrap my mind around. It would be naive to think that with all the money involved in this industry that nothing shady ever happens. But when handicapping do you always act under the assumption that these two groups of men are all going out there and giving their 100%?
It seems it would be so much more simpler to handicap if we knew for sure that this is indeed the case.
For example theres so much other BS... reverse line movement, inside info, bad apple referees, the possibilities of rigged games, human error, lack of effort and motivation etc. These are after all human beings and there is a human factor, they are not machines.
Anyway I live in Vegas and betting and handicapping is all I do so I look forward to posting some plays and contributing here.
Really looking forward to peoples responses on this. BOL to all.
The possibility of letdowns and rebounds should be part of everyone's handicapping.
For example, let's say a small home favorite blows out a division rival on national TV. The general public, swayed by recency bias, will probably want to bet that team next week and the line makers know it and make the public pay with a higher line. That alone makes it more difficult for the victors to cover the next game.
Meanwhile, the victors are wallowing in the public adulation and friendly local media and maybe getting a little bit swell-headed and over-confident, especially if the next opponent is markedlly weaker. They doze off during the film reviews and lack sharpness in their drills. They could be ripe for a letdown.
AZ beat TB 40-7, then lost to BUF by 15 points as a 5 1/2 point favorite.
Potential rebounds basically work in a similar but converse way. An embarrassing loss could spur a peak effort coupled with a more generous line.
Nothing works all of the time. The Lakers won 33 consecutive games once; repeatedly betting on a letdown would have wiped out any bettor.
Every game features a variable set of fluctuating factors, which makes for a hell of an interesting intellectual challenge. It is quite satisfying when you actually nail a game no matter how much (or how little in my case) you bet.
The possibility of letdowns and rebounds should be part of everyone's handicapping.
For example, let's say a small home favorite blows out a division rival on national TV. The general public, swayed by recency bias, will probably want to bet that team next week and the line makers know it and make the public pay with a higher line. That alone makes it more difficult for the victors to cover the next game.
Meanwhile, the victors are wallowing in the public adulation and friendly local media and maybe getting a little bit swell-headed and over-confident, especially if the next opponent is markedlly weaker. They doze off during the film reviews and lack sharpness in their drills. They could be ripe for a letdown.
AZ beat TB 40-7, then lost to BUF by 15 points as a 5 1/2 point favorite.
Potential rebounds basically work in a similar but converse way. An embarrassing loss could spur a peak effort coupled with a more generous line.
Nothing works all of the time. The Lakers won 33 consecutive games once; repeatedly betting on a letdown would have wiped out any bettor.
Every game features a variable set of fluctuating factors, which makes for a hell of an interesting intellectual challenge. It is quite satisfying when you actually nail a game no matter how much (or how little in my case) you bet.
No. Not all of them give 100%. They are human beings. Pro athletes make millions. It doesnt matter if they win or lose, if they compete or if they suck, they still get paid.
The things about sport betting is you have people that handicap games. What it boils down to is luck really. You cant predict a PI call , or a fumble, a tipped ball for an INT, a holding call, offsides etc. You cant predict that garbage. Unless these were machines there is no way anyone can look at stats and say this team will win.
Im of the opinion that these games are played with money, not X's and O's. Alot of people wont share that opinion and thats their right but I do believe that the NFL is a business to make money. The game is not left up to the chance of a coin flip. Someone is behind the scenes pulling the strings and making it happen. The great teams would win and cover 10/10 times if the games were legit. Parity is an illusion. 2 guys not giving 100% on a top team would still mop the floor with a bad team. Thats just the way it is.
Dont get me wrong, there are alot of factors that go into deciding on which team to play, but stats imo is the least of them. If you knew where the money was before each game at every Vegas casino, and tallied it all up, you would do better than the best handicapper in the world by a mile.
No. Not all of them give 100%. They are human beings. Pro athletes make millions. It doesnt matter if they win or lose, if they compete or if they suck, they still get paid.
The things about sport betting is you have people that handicap games. What it boils down to is luck really. You cant predict a PI call , or a fumble, a tipped ball for an INT, a holding call, offsides etc. You cant predict that garbage. Unless these were machines there is no way anyone can look at stats and say this team will win.
Im of the opinion that these games are played with money, not X's and O's. Alot of people wont share that opinion and thats their right but I do believe that the NFL is a business to make money. The game is not left up to the chance of a coin flip. Someone is behind the scenes pulling the strings and making it happen. The great teams would win and cover 10/10 times if the games were legit. Parity is an illusion. 2 guys not giving 100% on a top team would still mop the floor with a bad team. Thats just the way it is.
Dont get me wrong, there are alot of factors that go into deciding on which team to play, but stats imo is the least of them. If you knew where the money was before each game at every Vegas casino, and tallied it all up, you would do better than the best handicapper in the world by a mile.
Head coaches Bill Parcels and Jimmy Johnson talked about this all the time back in 80's and 90's.
Denver players talked about this after the SB , saying when the media and many others doubts them they play that much harder and more determined to prove them wrong and when the media and others praise them they tend to lose that edge.
Teams do reach a point of being satisfied with where they stand and will let up in the next game or 2, this is only human nature.
This is going to happen with the Eagles very soon. When everyone starts praising them and patting them on the back they will let up just a bit and lose the edge.
They can get full of themselves, over-confident, complacent, the feeling we are so good now just showing up will be enough to win.
Head coaches Bill Parcels and Jimmy Johnson talked about this all the time back in 80's and 90's.
Denver players talked about this after the SB , saying when the media and many others doubts them they play that much harder and more determined to prove them wrong and when the media and others praise them they tend to lose that edge.
Teams do reach a point of being satisfied with where they stand and will let up in the next game or 2, this is only human nature.
This is going to happen with the Eagles very soon. When everyone starts praising them and patting them on the back they will let up just a bit and lose the edge.
They can get full of themselves, over-confident, complacent, the feeling we are so good now just showing up will be enough to win.
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