"No, we shouldn't favor Arizona heavily in this game because of that Week 16 matchup. We should favor Arizona heavily in this game because the Cardinals have been better than the Packers all season long, and particularly for the last two months." Football Outsiders. Yes this is a rematch of a 38-8 ARI blow out win. Research of rematches of blow outs with in 6 weeks (4 tds or more) have shown that 50% of the time the blown out team wins the rematch. It is natural to assume the teams will play similar to last game, but rarely should it be considered as what "will" happen the next time. There are too many different variables from one to that game.
This match up just does not bode well in very many areas for Green Bay. There has been much notice to Aaron Rogers performance last week. His up tempo antics got him going and his confidence grew, resulting in a "Rogers like" performance. I am not a believer that a game versus the WORST defense in the playoffs is going to mean a whole lot against this defense! Sometimes a game can ignite a fire though. Let's look closely. GB rushed the ball last week vs Wash. They will struggle mightily to achieve that this week. ARI is 2nd best defending the run. ARI has allowed only 6 100+ yard rushers in past 43 games. Here is why GB has very limited chance in this game. First down offense leads to either good 3rd down conversion attempts or 3rd and long attempts (6+ yards). GB 1st down rush offense ranks 31st and ARI defense 7th. GB 1st down pass offense ranks 20th and ARI defense 13th. Advantage ARI not even really close. That creates 3rd and long for GB where there offense is ranked 23rd and ARI defense is BEST in the NFL! In the first game, Rogers had 7 3rd and long situations,the results were 5 sacks and 2 fumbles! That brings into play the ARI pressure. This team blitzes more than any other in the NFL (45.1% of the time). So let's get to 2nd down before I forget to include it. GB excels as they are actually the 3rd most efficient offense on 2nd down. Unfortunately for them, ARI is also 3rd most efficient defense. Checkmate! The GB receivers will struggle to get open against the secondary of ARI. CB Patrick Peterson was ranked #1 CB with 73% success rate and only 4.6 yards allowed per pass. The only match up I can find favoring the Packers is dump passes to running backs!
Arizona on offense has been very strong. RB David Johnson has filled in and produced at an All Star level. He has rushed for 442 yards on 90 carries in his 4 games. He is a tackle breaking strong rusher. GB was the 4th highest broken tackle defense in the NFL with 120. Led by Clay Matthews with 12. Carson Palmer is 26-5 SU L31 games. ARI is 31-11 SU and 27-15 ATS L42 games. The Packers also like to blitz. However, Palmer is 2nd in the NFL with 5.1 net yards when pressured and his rating of 48.1 QBR is 3rd! Risk with no reward for the defense. ARI has lost 3 games, in those games they are -3 to's in each game! They outgain their opponents 86.6 yrds per game where as GB is -67.1 yards away! All 3 of ARI WRs rank in the top 10 (Fitzgerald, Brown, Floyd)! There is no favorite receiver to stop, you must try top stop them all. GB defense does match up better than their offense to ARI def, but still it is short of being able to dominate ARI. GB pass efficiency defense is 6th and red zone efficiency is also 6th.
Bottom line is this game, GB can play a 180 turn around against ARI in the rematch and still lose by more than 7! The schedule does not fit well for GB either. This will be game number 3 in a row on the road 5th out 6 games. the talent mismatch is too one sided and HC Arians may be the coach in the NFL! They will be well rested and well coached.
"No, we shouldn't favor Arizona heavily in this game because of that Week 16 matchup. We should favor Arizona heavily in this game because the Cardinals have been better than the Packers all season long, and particularly for the last two months." Football Outsiders. Yes this is a rematch of a 38-8 ARI blow out win. Research of rematches of blow outs with in 6 weeks (4 tds or more) have shown that 50% of the time the blown out team wins the rematch. It is natural to assume the teams will play similar to last game, but rarely should it be considered as what "will" happen the next time. There are too many different variables from one to that game.
This match up just does not bode well in very many areas for Green Bay. There has been much notice to Aaron Rogers performance last week. His up tempo antics got him going and his confidence grew, resulting in a "Rogers like" performance. I am not a believer that a game versus the WORST defense in the playoffs is going to mean a whole lot against this defense! Sometimes a game can ignite a fire though. Let's look closely. GB rushed the ball last week vs Wash. They will struggle mightily to achieve that this week. ARI is 2nd best defending the run. ARI has allowed only 6 100+ yard rushers in past 43 games. Here is why GB has very limited chance in this game. First down offense leads to either good 3rd down conversion attempts or 3rd and long attempts (6+ yards). GB 1st down rush offense ranks 31st and ARI defense 7th. GB 1st down pass offense ranks 20th and ARI defense 13th. Advantage ARI not even really close. That creates 3rd and long for GB where there offense is ranked 23rd and ARI defense is BEST in the NFL! In the first game, Rogers had 7 3rd and long situations,the results were 5 sacks and 2 fumbles! That brings into play the ARI pressure. This team blitzes more than any other in the NFL (45.1% of the time). So let's get to 2nd down before I forget to include it. GB excels as they are actually the 3rd most efficient offense on 2nd down. Unfortunately for them, ARI is also 3rd most efficient defense. Checkmate! The GB receivers will struggle to get open against the secondary of ARI. CB Patrick Peterson was ranked #1 CB with 73% success rate and only 4.6 yards allowed per pass. The only match up I can find favoring the Packers is dump passes to running backs!
Arizona on offense has been very strong. RB David Johnson has filled in and produced at an All Star level. He has rushed for 442 yards on 90 carries in his 4 games. He is a tackle breaking strong rusher. GB was the 4th highest broken tackle defense in the NFL with 120. Led by Clay Matthews with 12. Carson Palmer is 26-5 SU L31 games. ARI is 31-11 SU and 27-15 ATS L42 games. The Packers also like to blitz. However, Palmer is 2nd in the NFL with 5.1 net yards when pressured and his rating of 48.1 QBR is 3rd! Risk with no reward for the defense. ARI has lost 3 games, in those games they are -3 to's in each game! They outgain their opponents 86.6 yrds per game where as GB is -67.1 yards away! All 3 of ARI WRs rank in the top 10 (Fitzgerald, Brown, Floyd)! There is no favorite receiver to stop, you must try top stop them all. GB defense does match up better than their offense to ARI def, but still it is short of being able to dominate ARI. GB pass efficiency defense is 6th and red zone efficiency is also 6th.
Bottom line is this game, GB can play a 180 turn around against ARI in the rematch and still lose by more than 7! The schedule does not fit well for GB either. This will be game number 3 in a row on the road 5th out 6 games. the talent mismatch is too one sided and HC Arians may be the coach in the NFL! They will be well rested and well coached.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.