First off, There are opportunities are every where and there are tons of clues each week heading into Sunday...
So far i have been able to produce 3.5 years of beating the spread 63.5 percent of the times of 99% of all games within those 3 years... Play of the years i have never lost...
Things that i have...
1. Massive amounts of data,, you don't have to have this but it will help A LOT if you know how to use it... It reduces the amount of time it takes for me to get a baseline idea...My data includes
Spread sheet 1A
6-12 Years
Team Specific trends,, Dog/Fav , Road/Home Ats, Prime Time, Scoring differential, Totals, Upset tendancices and backdoor covers.. I highlight games that are Divisional,Same conference, or opposing conference.. All together These are organized by Division..
SS 1B
This is my main spread sheet and where i input all of my data... This is my main seasonal SS... I start off by uploading the entire schedule when it comes out in June/july ..Includes 6 years of every game ordered by ROT... The entire spread sheet lights up like a christmas tree because its all color coded... There are notes in every cell as well... Scoring differentials upsets, and backdoors are marked within each cell along with how many dogs favorites, divisional home/road teams thats beat the ATS ,, that is week/Year to date specific.. And each row where new data gets entered it automatically gets calculated and the out put goes into the row next to it and also the calculations go into other pages to get an over all picture of just the numbers...This is useful to find situational trends.. I use alot of ones and zeros this occupies about 20 cells across... following that,, i have a algo that calculates and seperates each time a larger market team wins or loses ats against small and medium markets teams,, This spits out a number but it also gives me the strenghs of that particular week and overall of the markets,, and gives me a score,, from this point i take this number and apply it against the spread .. Line movements,, opening and closing,, is also included and highlighted by Early,afternoon,night and is also gathered and spat out into another spread sheet... Because i believe shananigans do occur... Next group of cells to my right ,, i have the same six years worth of data,, this time its highlighted with different colors indicating where something fishy was going on or the house will make a killing off this game,(chances are) So when i look at it as a whole (all six years) it starts to look like a heat map from afar.... And when i mean fishy,, i don't mean just the team,, its the totals as well... So now i have a query of all the opening a closing lines,, i only use two specific books to get these spreads and i like using the squarest books because most books now adays are pretty sharp and im able to stay consistant and find contrast....
Below includes the jist of other spread sheets i have
Divisional only
1H & 2H --- 1H & 2H divisional only... 1h & second halfs (primetime)
Superbowl prediction...
QB,Coach, and any higher up info i can find on the net... This helps me understand the culture of that team within that city and the locker room,, or the management...
Preseason,, ( this one is my favorite because it is brainless to beat the spreads)
Scoring differentials by teams of each team...
How teams do before playing an opponent ATS... Very useful,, helps me find look ahead games and let down spots...
How teams do the following game after a win or a loss vs a certain oppononent marked by divisional , same and non conference win/LOSS and primetime
Referee SS,, i used to be much more dependent on this,, but its information that isnt easy to get since they are not very transparent about assigments. But i know what refs have certain tendancies...
Playoffs SS....
Triangle SS,, This gives me an idea of which weeks i will see team A beating--->B---->C----A... I guess its called parity.... Separted by division and weeks with totals included...
Spreads only,, This gives me an idea of how teams do against a particular closing number... ( very useful ) there so many settle clues that produce very strong numbers... This is a filter i use..
The fix angle,, yes these are my bloodbath plays... And yes i need to make sure the public is on the otherside...
Now having all this data,, I use to filter out the numbers and situations to get an idea if its a play and on which side... Btw i have watched tons of games and i have a very good memory,, i remember line movements and results and patterns associated with this,, it has become internalized,,, i was a natural at fading the public or shall i say finding out which side the house will need or exceptions,, .. Having said that,, i dont have a system that can streamline this,, but i do use it as another filter before i would make it a play,, degen plays do not count because they are significantly smaller....