Cincy
-> If can get 3 at -110 or -120 may upgrade the play
KC isn't a bad team, but they are not a "great" team and either way their schedule is just really tough to start the season. Had to travel to Houston for game 1 and got a W, but then had to play at home against a very tough rival in Denver on a short week on TNF, then had an 11 day break before going on the road for another b2b primtetime in Green Bay and now are on a b2b road game on a short week in Cincinatti a team they are not familiar with and don't play often and is to me a serious super bowl contender this year. Cincy is deep and talented at every skill position with J Hill and Bernard + AJ, Marvin, Sanu, and Eifert and has a very good defense and OL and is coming off a big interdivision win over rival Baltimore who they just saw beat a Steelers team that was the next step towards the division. With the division looking theirs for the taking and a b2b home game against Seattle coming up I feel they come out ready to play and just continue to take it week by week. The schedule spot for KC on short rest and b2b road game only helps more.
Jets -1 (-120) like it but not as big as cincy
Don't love it but to me the jets are just the better team. Started 2-0 and had to play on a short week after a huge impressive outright underdog prime time win against a desperate philly team and now instead of playing in miami with miami on a b2b home game to pick it up after getting demolished, the dolphins owner sold off the game to the nfl in london. Miami has 1 good cb in brent grimes but he is small and b marsh should be able to still exploit some coverage. Rest of corners are terrible. 1 sack for this defense vs wash, jags, and bills and jets have good OL. Ivory back + dolphins OL playing bad without albert again against good DL. Jets deep at CB and good run d too. No big situational or timing advantage going into this week with both teams off home losses with a bye coming up and about same length flight to london, but just feel getting a good spread at essentially PK with the better team and WAY better coached team. One team is ready for a new coach and the other team is on its way up with a good new coaching staff. Does scare me a bit though that the spread IS this low and that percentage of bets look to be on jets as of today
Lean Atlanta, but never love taking teams expected to win by majority of people which you would think they would be
- after looking at percentages looks like 68% on atlanta 72% texans ML with the spread going up from -6 to -6.5 so all looks not so out of whack and makes me consider potentially making atlanta a play. I definitely don't love Atlanta D though and do feel they are a bit overrated just not a fan of the Texans though so may not be the week yet to fade the Falcons.
Definitely definitely DO NOT like the spot the Texans are in having to go on the road against a team that has started the season 3-0 on their home turf in the dome especially with a TNF home game on deck for Houston against division rival Indianapolis. Just that right there takes me completely off Houston and leaning towards Atlanta. Houston coming off a win to get their 1st of the season, but I was on them that game simply because they were desperate and playing a not great tampa team who was on a b2b road game after a HUGE division win over NO in the superdome. Was a bad spot for TB. Texans to me I felt were going to have a chance this season with a really strong defense, but to this point they have not impressed me even on the defensive side of the ball with a loss to KC at home game 1 where they allowed 27, then a loss to Carolina where they allowed ted ginn and philly brown to score on them. I just wouldn't trust the defense now to stop Atlanta and then considering that they may not be able to stop the falcons from putting up points, I don't know how you could trust Ryan Mallet to put up enough to keep them in it considering only 19 scored against TB and him just looking pretty plain bad. Besides Deandre the weapons are Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts and they don't even have talent at TE. Arian may be back yea, but would be his 1st action of surgery and even if playing I expect him to be slightly eased in. Plus, game flow with a good offensive team in Atlanta should make Mallet have to throw a lot again to his limited weapons. Something to consider is it's not like the Falcons have played the easiest slate of games to start the season with a home game against Philly on MNF to start off the season, then a road game in Giants, and a b2b road game in Dallas. Even though Dallas without Romo and NFC East seeming weaker than expected this year, b2b road game never easy and they showed something with a comeback. Defense got torched though by an undermanned Cowboys team.
- Falcons rule out CB Ricardo Allen for Sunday due to knee injury
- Brooks Reed should be debuting
- Julio probable, Devonta probable (looked good in Dallas)
- Tamme out, Toilolo in - Hester and Tevin Coleman out
- Texans CB Johnathan Joseph dealing with hip injury (limited), Mallet limited (chest), should be getting OL Duane Brown back though
Lean Giants but don't love it because I just don't love their team personel. With limited WR talent in Buffalo though and being a running team, would think that Giants D maybe won't necessarily be exploited though and with 5 points that may be a good number.
- wow, even with impressive beatdown by buffalo in Miami last week vegainsider shows the spread for the Giants has come DOWN from +6.5 to only +5
Buffalo a bit short-handed on offense with Sammy Watkins, Marquise Goodwin, and Mccoy out + Aaron Williams still out. Giants getting back DRC, but missing Robert Ayers who is their most effective pass rusher. Beason 2nd week and Unga playing well + Giants coming with extra time to prepare and rest with a TNF win over Redskins. Giants have a SNF game on tap at home against SF so should be focused for this one. I do think Buffalo is the better team, but situationally and with Bills coming off a public stomping over the Dolphins in Miami I feel Giants probably in better spot situationally especially getting a higher spread than expected with 5 points (then again scares me is that high though). Giants defense not great and offense limited weapons against a very talented defense so talent wise though Bills do feel like they are the better team. Gilmore vs ODB, Darby vs Reuben. Giants started the season with 2 games they could have won in Dallas blown and vs a tough 3-0 Atlanta team, but handled business at home on TNF against division rival Redskins. Now extra time to prepare for Bills.