Last year was a brutal year for me for the NFL season, hopefully I took in a lot of lessons and wanted to get some insights from some of the better cappers on the site.
I had a percentage of 33% and it cost me -$1,974.49 as per the record of 28-58-1 above.
Albeit, there was a 1,500 swing on the superbowl last play, which would of made the losing season much more bearable.
Here are some of the lessons learnt:
Too much emphasis on the prior week performance
Not enough emphasis on divisional matchups and schedule strenghts
Wild betting on live games and inconsistent betting on pleasers.
Lot of times I would not make plays that I was scared to bet and they won
This year I took the first 2 weeks off, and just watched.
YTD record is 1-1 and net is $70.
I been betting based on NFL season data, I have tracked for 6 years, looking for edges were high probability of games trending one way. Lot of my losses came in the last few minutes -which I believe happens to most people, but I was also prone to blowouts were my bet was over by the 1st quarter.
Obviously, this did not work for me last year and I am ready to get back into Week 3 of action.
Would love to get some tips on people who use data sets and analytics to make their betting decisions, if any cares to help that would be great !
Last year was a brutal year for me for the NFL season, hopefully I took in a lot of lessons and wanted to get some insights from some of the better cappers on the site.
I had a percentage of 33% and it cost me -$1,974.49 as per the record of 28-58-1 above.
Albeit, there was a 1,500 swing on the superbowl last play, which would of made the losing season much more bearable.
Here are some of the lessons learnt:
Too much emphasis on the prior week performance
Not enough emphasis on divisional matchups and schedule strenghts
Wild betting on live games and inconsistent betting on pleasers.
Lot of times I would not make plays that I was scared to bet and they won
This year I took the first 2 weeks off, and just watched.
YTD record is 1-1 and net is $70.
I been betting based on NFL season data, I have tracked for 6 years, looking for edges were high probability of games trending one way. Lot of my losses came in the last few minutes -which I believe happens to most people, but I was also prone to blowouts were my bet was over by the 1st quarter.
Obviously, this did not work for me last year and I am ready to get back into Week 3 of action.
Would love to get some tips on people who use data sets and analytics to make their betting decisions, if any cares to help that would be great !
"I wouldn't make the plays that I was scared to make and they would win."
You're scared to make the plays because you are betting too big.
Your play should mean NOTHING to you. NOTHING.
I play ten games every week and I have never hit less than six.
The thing here is that if I were to choose my "best plays" and only play those, i stand a chance of only picking my losers. You're trying to increase your filter but your filter doesn't know which plays are good or not. People who say lower your plays... that doesn't account for this.
INCREASE your knowledge about the game. INCREASE your plays. DECREASE your bet size. WIN at least 55%.
People lose their behind betting their roll on one game. You increase your edge on the house when you know more about ten games and don't rely on your knowledge of only one.
KC V. Den last week... 40 seconds from a win... Peyton throws a TD. Overtime? Charles fumbles. Returned for a TD. Your win probability went from 75% to 40% to 1% in three plays. Variance happens.
If you are a good capper, you must rely on your knowledge to make money little by little. The best capper in the world can't make money betting $0. Bankroll DEFENSE is more important than bankroll OFFENSE.
"I wouldn't make the plays that I was scared to make and they would win."
You're scared to make the plays because you are betting too big.
Your play should mean NOTHING to you. NOTHING.
I play ten games every week and I have never hit less than six.
The thing here is that if I were to choose my "best plays" and only play those, i stand a chance of only picking my losers. You're trying to increase your filter but your filter doesn't know which plays are good or not. People who say lower your plays... that doesn't account for this.
INCREASE your knowledge about the game. INCREASE your plays. DECREASE your bet size. WIN at least 55%.
People lose their behind betting their roll on one game. You increase your edge on the house when you know more about ten games and don't rely on your knowledge of only one.
KC V. Den last week... 40 seconds from a win... Peyton throws a TD. Overtime? Charles fumbles. Returned for a TD. Your win probability went from 75% to 40% to 1% in three plays. Variance happens.
If you are a good capper, you must rely on your knowledge to make money little by little. The best capper in the world can't make money betting $0. Bankroll DEFENSE is more important than bankroll OFFENSE.
Great advice. Personally I only bet max 1% of my roll per NFL bet. Even if I finish the season as poorly as you did last year I still have most of my roll in tact. If I eventually end up losing my whole roll, then I will never gamble again, because clearly it means I'm hopeless at it.
Great advice. Personally I only bet max 1% of my roll per NFL bet. Even if I finish the season as poorly as you did last year I still have most of my roll in tact. If I eventually end up losing my whole roll, then I will never gamble again, because clearly it means I'm hopeless at it.
Believe it or not the harder it is for me to pull the trigger on a game the more I bet on it. If I see a fishy line I used to take the 80% side and lose, then I would not bet them, now I bet them heavy the other way and win. Here are some of my tried and true rules
Look for division underdogs. Divisional foes play each other twice a year every year and know each other well. Tight games are the norm even when one team is superior. ie I like the Redskins this week plus 4 at the Giants
In the NFL double digit dogs are a good bet. ie Tampa at New Orleans last week. Again these are hard to bet but pay off
West coast teams traveling to east coast for an early game. This has been the best cover in the NFL. The west coast team is playing a game at 10:00 as far as their bodies are concerned. Some teams have recently tried to combat this by traveling a day earlier, but if they don't I strongly consider this bet
My favorite is the reverse line movement or RLM, especially when it is a fishy line to begin with. RLM is when most of the public is betting one team and the line moves the opposite way that it is supposed to
The 80% rule. If I see 80% of the public betting one way I bet the other
Fade the talk. When ESPN and everyone and their dog is talking the same talk about who can't do this or that on a prime time game don't buy in. I don't actually look to fade this but I dont let it alter my bet and feel better about my pick if the 'experts' disagree
Believe it or not the harder it is for me to pull the trigger on a game the more I bet on it. If I see a fishy line I used to take the 80% side and lose, then I would not bet them, now I bet them heavy the other way and win. Here are some of my tried and true rules
Look for division underdogs. Divisional foes play each other twice a year every year and know each other well. Tight games are the norm even when one team is superior. ie I like the Redskins this week plus 4 at the Giants
In the NFL double digit dogs are a good bet. ie Tampa at New Orleans last week. Again these are hard to bet but pay off
West coast teams traveling to east coast for an early game. This has been the best cover in the NFL. The west coast team is playing a game at 10:00 as far as their bodies are concerned. Some teams have recently tried to combat this by traveling a day earlier, but if they don't I strongly consider this bet
My favorite is the reverse line movement or RLM, especially when it is a fishy line to begin with. RLM is when most of the public is betting one team and the line moves the opposite way that it is supposed to
The 80% rule. If I see 80% of the public betting one way I bet the other
Fade the talk. When ESPN and everyone and their dog is talking the same talk about who can't do this or that on a prime time game don't buy in. I don't actually look to fade this but I dont let it alter my bet and feel better about my pick if the 'experts' disagree
Here's a couple more things to consider. The NFL is a lot about the spot. I consider that a lot. I might think one team is superior to another but they might be traveling to a desperate team and themselves looking ahead to the next week playing a divisional opponent. Lots of look ahead and sandwich games
Unless it's a quarterback injury this is a next man up league. Injuries are overrated
This is big. Check out the post here in covers. Know who to follow. Last year I entered the Super Contest and always checked out the thread Rudy and Van started. It's amazing how often I'll read threads here that make me think twice or confirm what I already thought
Here's a couple more things to consider. The NFL is a lot about the spot. I consider that a lot. I might think one team is superior to another but they might be traveling to a desperate team and themselves looking ahead to the next week playing a divisional opponent. Lots of look ahead and sandwich games
Unless it's a quarterback injury this is a next man up league. Injuries are overrated
This is big. Check out the post here in covers. Know who to follow. Last year I entered the Super Contest and always checked out the thread Rudy and Van started. It's amazing how often I'll read threads here that make me think twice or confirm what I already thought
Thanks for the replies, in terms of looking at stats, do these make any sense or I am looking at stats for the stake of stats.
I look at the overall % of how many times the combined teams have scored against the over/under.
For example for MNF game of 42.5, I went and looked at how many times the Jets went over that total and the Colts went over that amount, is that a helpful stat or based purely on matchups and other factors.
Thanks for the replies, in terms of looking at stats, do these make any sense or I am looking at stats for the stake of stats.
I look at the overall % of how many times the combined teams have scored against the over/under.
For example for MNF game of 42.5, I went and looked at how many times the Jets went over that total and the Colts went over that amount, is that a helpful stat or based purely on matchups and other factors.
And it continues ... another beat at the end, which definitely throws my game off -shaters my confidence - I have had a few loses like this...why cant this happen when I have the over !
And it continues ... another beat at the end, which definitely throws my game off -shaters my confidence - I have had a few loses like this...why cant this happen when I have the over !
bettingman, are a you a total player as compared to a side player ?
I had a lean on the Redskins, but stayed away from this game. I did not have a good feeling for either team. As an illustrative example, the Fezick power ratings had the redskins and giants at (-3.5) below an average team. I stay away from games as much as I can where both team are bad. garbage in, Garbage out. Also poor playing teams usually have to abandon their game plan or come in with a stupid one. During the first half, the Redskins did not try to establish the run when they had 37 rushing attempts in each of their previous two games. It was incompletions and an interception. There was even a ripple effect with the blocked punt before and after.
I noticed you took the under. I am not a totals player, but my guess a lean towards the over would be the first choice. Both teams are bad about turning the ball over and other mistakes.
bettingman, are a you a total player as compared to a side player ?
I had a lean on the Redskins, but stayed away from this game. I did not have a good feeling for either team. As an illustrative example, the Fezick power ratings had the redskins and giants at (-3.5) below an average team. I stay away from games as much as I can where both team are bad. garbage in, Garbage out. Also poor playing teams usually have to abandon their game plan or come in with a stupid one. During the first half, the Redskins did not try to establish the run when they had 37 rushing attempts in each of their previous two games. It was incompletions and an interception. There was even a ripple effect with the blocked punt before and after.
I noticed you took the under. I am not a totals player, but my guess a lean towards the over would be the first choice. Both teams are bad about turning the ball over and other mistakes.
Not sure if you watched the game, but the under was looking very solid, 25-6 with less than 4 minutes left, until the review of the 2nd washington TD was not done and it snowballed from there.
Throwing deeps balls - when you could manage the clock and win the game is usually what I see occur, so was a bit surprised there.
All good, take the beat and hopefully bounce back on Sunday !
Not sure if you watched the game, but the under was looking very solid, 25-6 with less than 4 minutes left, until the review of the 2nd washington TD was not done and it snowballed from there.
Throwing deeps balls - when you could manage the clock and win the game is usually what I see occur, so was a bit surprised there.
All good, take the beat and hopefully bounce back on Sunday !
@bettingman have you practice breaking down any more games ?
Here is a snapshot of my process. At this point, I am looking for the overall measure of a team and landmines to avoid.
Okay the first thing I do is throw out games where the line is a touchdown or more. This puts less money at risk and less time wasted on games. Also I am a technical handicapper, and my numbers would not point to a 7 point underdog.
The first thing I look at is my own calculation point quality and defensive potential. Weak defensive teams usually lose games and/or the cover. Then I check points per drive differential and points per play differential and my own calculation of ball control efficiency. I have not done well using power rankings as a primary decision maker, so I do them later. Some bettors look for strength, or value. I look for quality or the lack of quality.
I have not done an analysis on every game due to time constraints. I am in the process of adding a couple of metrics to factor into my betting decisions, so it is a work in progress.
The first game I came upon was Eagles Jets.Under Chip Kelly, my numbers have been off enough, so I hesitate to select the Eagles in any fashion. In terms of point quality, the Eagles have a F, and the Jets have an A grade. Massey ranks the Eagle defense at grade D. Massey has the Jets defense with an A grade. Gridironranks.com has an adjusted ranking system that gives both the Eagles and Jets an A grade. My defensive inertia ranking gives the eagles an F and the Jets a B grade. the eagles have a point per drive differential grade of D and the Jets have a grade of A. In points per play differential, the Jets have an A grade. I think points per drive ( and play ) differential are a key factor on some level they show how well a team does as compared to what they give up. The Fezick power ranking have the eagles as an average team, and the Jets as above average. On the big picture scale, the Eagles have numerous Fs and Ds, while the Jets have As and Bs.
The lean is towards the Jets. now the lean could have been away from the Eagles as a stand alone or a double down. Now the next question to ask is do the Eagles have a reasonable chance to win. 75 to 80 of games, the winner covers the game. You can provide your answer to that question. It can be a 1 to 100 % scale or grade of A to F or whatever suits you. it might even be the yes/no/maybe scale. As this is practice, I am not making an official play on this game. If I had to make a bet, I would go with the Jets and give the points.
Next on the card was Bucs Texans. I was curious about this game because I have seen so many favoring the Texans in a substantial way. If the Texans win, there is a good chance they can win by a touchdown. That is what my line filtering does. The Bucs have a point quality grade of F, and the Texans also have a point quality grade of F. The Bucs have a point per drive differential and play differential of F. the Texans have a drive differential of C and a play differential of D. The Bus have an offensive inertia of B, while the Texans have an offensive inertia of F. Massey give the Bucs defense a F and the Texans a C. Gridiron ranks the Bucs defense as a C, and the Texans as a B.. My defensive inertia has the Bucs defense at grade F, and the Texans at a grade C. Defensive inertia is how well opponents move the ball. This reinforces the points per difference metrics.The Fezick power rankings give the Bucs an F, and the Texans a D.
One of my guiding concepts is to avoid betting on games where both teams are below 20 in credible power rankings. I recommend skipping this game. Garbage in ... Garbage out ...
Next on the card is Steelers Rams. My initial reflex would be to slightly fade the Rams and slightly lean the Steelers. I do admit that is based too much on very recent games. Fortunately I have my analysis method to help me out. The Steelers have a point quality of C, and the Rams have a point quality of F, which I would highlight as a key factor in this betting decision. The Steelers have a drive differential of A and a play differential of A. The Rams have a drive differential of D and a play differential of B. At the moment, I do not know exactly what that indicates about the Rams, but it does stick out. Here is where the analysis makes me pause. Massey gives the Steelers a grade of D. Gridironranks gives them a defensive grade of F. My defensive inertia gives them a F. The Steelers offensive firepower can overcome their defensive failings. This is a key betting factor on taking the Steelers. Massey gives the Rams defense a grade of D. Gridiron gives the Rams defense a C grade. My defensive inertia metric gives the Rams a grade of F. I do not do over/under, but it looks like a play of over might be one of the bets to make. My offensive inertia has the Steelers at A, and the Rams at D.
At the moment, I rate this as a slight lean for the Steelers and a slight fade on the Rams to make this a lean on the Steelers.
As for the game I put money on this week, it be the Arizona Cards.Using the KISS strategy, take a solid defensive team at home. I might also bet the Packers.
@bettingman have you practice breaking down any more games ?
Here is a snapshot of my process. At this point, I am looking for the overall measure of a team and landmines to avoid.
Okay the first thing I do is throw out games where the line is a touchdown or more. This puts less money at risk and less time wasted on games. Also I am a technical handicapper, and my numbers would not point to a 7 point underdog.
The first thing I look at is my own calculation point quality and defensive potential. Weak defensive teams usually lose games and/or the cover. Then I check points per drive differential and points per play differential and my own calculation of ball control efficiency. I have not done well using power rankings as a primary decision maker, so I do them later. Some bettors look for strength, or value. I look for quality or the lack of quality.
I have not done an analysis on every game due to time constraints. I am in the process of adding a couple of metrics to factor into my betting decisions, so it is a work in progress.
The first game I came upon was Eagles Jets.Under Chip Kelly, my numbers have been off enough, so I hesitate to select the Eagles in any fashion. In terms of point quality, the Eagles have a F, and the Jets have an A grade. Massey ranks the Eagle defense at grade D. Massey has the Jets defense with an A grade. Gridironranks.com has an adjusted ranking system that gives both the Eagles and Jets an A grade. My defensive inertia ranking gives the eagles an F and the Jets a B grade. the eagles have a point per drive differential grade of D and the Jets have a grade of A. In points per play differential, the Jets have an A grade. I think points per drive ( and play ) differential are a key factor on some level they show how well a team does as compared to what they give up. The Fezick power ranking have the eagles as an average team, and the Jets as above average. On the big picture scale, the Eagles have numerous Fs and Ds, while the Jets have As and Bs.
The lean is towards the Jets. now the lean could have been away from the Eagles as a stand alone or a double down. Now the next question to ask is do the Eagles have a reasonable chance to win. 75 to 80 of games, the winner covers the game. You can provide your answer to that question. It can be a 1 to 100 % scale or grade of A to F or whatever suits you. it might even be the yes/no/maybe scale. As this is practice, I am not making an official play on this game. If I had to make a bet, I would go with the Jets and give the points.
Next on the card was Bucs Texans. I was curious about this game because I have seen so many favoring the Texans in a substantial way. If the Texans win, there is a good chance they can win by a touchdown. That is what my line filtering does. The Bucs have a point quality grade of F, and the Texans also have a point quality grade of F. The Bucs have a point per drive differential and play differential of F. the Texans have a drive differential of C and a play differential of D. The Bus have an offensive inertia of B, while the Texans have an offensive inertia of F. Massey give the Bucs defense a F and the Texans a C. Gridiron ranks the Bucs defense as a C, and the Texans as a B.. My defensive inertia has the Bucs defense at grade F, and the Texans at a grade C. Defensive inertia is how well opponents move the ball. This reinforces the points per difference metrics.The Fezick power rankings give the Bucs an F, and the Texans a D.
One of my guiding concepts is to avoid betting on games where both teams are below 20 in credible power rankings. I recommend skipping this game. Garbage in ... Garbage out ...
Next on the card is Steelers Rams. My initial reflex would be to slightly fade the Rams and slightly lean the Steelers. I do admit that is based too much on very recent games. Fortunately I have my analysis method to help me out. The Steelers have a point quality of C, and the Rams have a point quality of F, which I would highlight as a key factor in this betting decision. The Steelers have a drive differential of A and a play differential of A. The Rams have a drive differential of D and a play differential of B. At the moment, I do not know exactly what that indicates about the Rams, but it does stick out. Here is where the analysis makes me pause. Massey gives the Steelers a grade of D. Gridironranks gives them a defensive grade of F. My defensive inertia gives them a F. The Steelers offensive firepower can overcome their defensive failings. This is a key betting factor on taking the Steelers. Massey gives the Rams defense a grade of D. Gridiron gives the Rams defense a C grade. My defensive inertia metric gives the Rams a grade of F. I do not do over/under, but it looks like a play of over might be one of the bets to make. My offensive inertia has the Steelers at A, and the Rams at D.
At the moment, I rate this as a slight lean for the Steelers and a slight fade on the Rams to make this a lean on the Steelers.
As for the game I put money on this week, it be the Arizona Cards.Using the KISS strategy, take a solid defensive team at home. I might also bet the Packers.
@Bettingman103 ( not to be confused with Bettingman08 )
Are you going to practice betting analysis this week ?
This is just for practice, so I will start on the Thursday night game between the Ravens and Steelers. I usually start with the visiting team to try and overcome the home team bias.
The Ravens do not have much going for them. The only major plus is in Flaco. Then I would ask do the Ravens have any minuses going into this game. To further this analysis answer questions of how will the Ravens win this game or lose this game.
Moving onto the Steelers, they do have a high offensive potential. For the first gane, I think the coaching staff will put reins on Vic, so that he will not make too many mistakes. Also answer questions about how the Steelers will win or lose the game.
@Bettingman103 ( not to be confused with Bettingman08 )
Are you going to practice betting analysis this week ?
This is just for practice, so I will start on the Thursday night game between the Ravens and Steelers. I usually start with the visiting team to try and overcome the home team bias.
The Ravens do not have much going for them. The only major plus is in Flaco. Then I would ask do the Ravens have any minuses going into this game. To further this analysis answer questions of how will the Ravens win this game or lose this game.
Moving onto the Steelers, they do have a high offensive potential. For the first gane, I think the coaching staff will put reins on Vic, so that he will not make too many mistakes. Also answer questions about how the Steelers will win or lose the game.
@bettingman, There are possibilities and probabilities. For your betting journal, you could include a weaker division opponent beating a stronger division opponent as a probability. I stayed away from this game because of the unknown Vick factor. I thought he was going to have at least 2 turnovers. The kicker missing two field goals goes into the possibility column. You generally can not count on that as a primary betting factor, maybe a secondary betting factor.
For future reference, you could write down in your journal things like what betting factor is the Steelers third down/fourth down conversion ability in this game. Is that part of their makeup for the next few weeks ?
For the Ravens, are they going to run the ball close heavy ( close to 39 times ) ? The Ravens also had more turnovers and still won.
@bettingman, There are possibilities and probabilities. For your betting journal, you could include a weaker division opponent beating a stronger division opponent as a probability. I stayed away from this game because of the unknown Vick factor. I thought he was going to have at least 2 turnovers. The kicker missing two field goals goes into the possibility column. You generally can not count on that as a primary betting factor, maybe a secondary betting factor.
For future reference, you could write down in your journal things like what betting factor is the Steelers third down/fourth down conversion ability in this game. Is that part of their makeup for the next few weeks ?
For the Ravens, are they going to run the ball close heavy ( close to 39 times ) ? The Ravens also had more turnovers and still won.
Well I go for how the teams matchup as compared to the overall history. Here is how I would have looked at the over under situation. First you have the Steelers without Ben, which should lower point production. Then you have the Ravens offense, which is below average.Next you have a short week, which can impact the game. I would say at least one of the team would be out of sync, which lowers points on one side at least. Off the top of my head, I do not think of Flaco as having a tendency towards turnovers. That is just my initial impression, which could be wrong. Now analyzing the Vic factor, I would say he was not called by other teams for a reason. Also I thought he would have a tendency for turnovers. The Steelers coaching staff should realize this, and run Bell heavy. Running the ball would eat up the clock, and lower scoring potential. I have never placed a over under bet, but that would have been my analysis, which would have leaned to the under.
Well I go for how the teams matchup as compared to the overall history. Here is how I would have looked at the over under situation. First you have the Steelers without Ben, which should lower point production. Then you have the Ravens offense, which is below average.Next you have a short week, which can impact the game. I would say at least one of the team would be out of sync, which lowers points on one side at least. Off the top of my head, I do not think of Flaco as having a tendency towards turnovers. That is just my initial impression, which could be wrong. Now analyzing the Vic factor, I would say he was not called by other teams for a reason. Also I thought he would have a tendency for turnovers. The Steelers coaching staff should realize this, and run Bell heavy. Running the ball would eat up the clock, and lower scoring potential. I have never placed a over under bet, but that would have been my analysis, which would have leaned to the under.
Here are my leans for now and then will make my picks tomorrow and any feedback would take
Jets vs Dolphins +1.5
I would leans toward the Jets in this divisional match-up, believe it with will be a tight game - however the Dolphins have not played well. As well - usually in divisional match up - the home does come out ahead - I believe with this game in England negates that, and have to go with the better Defensive team.
I also like the over of 42 in this game.
Texans @ ATL
Leans is ATL +6 and tease PK
I believe ATL is a better in a shapes and form compared to Texans right now, strong comeback win last night against a good D last week and believe they can score again the Texans.
Here are my leans for now and then will make my picks tomorrow and any feedback would take
Jets vs Dolphins +1.5
I would leans toward the Jets in this divisional match-up, believe it with will be a tight game - however the Dolphins have not played well. As well - usually in divisional match up - the home does come out ahead - I believe with this game in England negates that, and have to go with the better Defensive team.
I also like the over of 42 in this game.
Texans @ ATL
Leans is ATL +6 and tease PK
I believe ATL is a better in a shapes and form compared to Texans right now, strong comeback win last night against a good D last week and believe they can score again the Texans.
If the games was in the US, I believe the Dolphins would have an implosion, and the Jets would blow them out. With an over under of 42, we are looking at both teams averaging 21 points. The Dolphins have a poor defensive inertia, which indicates opposing teams can move the ball on them above average. The Jets have an average defensive inertia. The Dolphins have a poor offensive inertia, and the Jets have an average offensive inertia. This indicates the game might be close. I have another stat called tempo, which indicates how well a team handles game pressure. The Jets are pretty good in tempo, and the Dolphins are bad. I think tempo will be a key factor in the outcome.
Is 42 typical for an NFL game ? Does it sound too high or low ?
I like managing your outcome with a tease where you have the outcome based on the Falcons just winning the game. I also think the Falcons are better than the Texans, and they are playing at home.
I have the feeling Atlanta will score a lot of points, and the Texans will stick around just enough to screw you on the over.
With your record on over under, do you have a checklist to help make your betting decision ? What is your general process in that area ?
If the games was in the US, I believe the Dolphins would have an implosion, and the Jets would blow them out. With an over under of 42, we are looking at both teams averaging 21 points. The Dolphins have a poor defensive inertia, which indicates opposing teams can move the ball on them above average. The Jets have an average defensive inertia. The Dolphins have a poor offensive inertia, and the Jets have an average offensive inertia. This indicates the game might be close. I have another stat called tempo, which indicates how well a team handles game pressure. The Jets are pretty good in tempo, and the Dolphins are bad. I think tempo will be a key factor in the outcome.
Is 42 typical for an NFL game ? Does it sound too high or low ?
I like managing your outcome with a tease where you have the outcome based on the Falcons just winning the game. I also think the Falcons are better than the Texans, and they are playing at home.
I have the feeling Atlanta will score a lot of points, and the Texans will stick around just enough to screw you on the over.
With your record on over under, do you have a checklist to help make your betting decision ? What is your general process in that area ?
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