NY GIANTS AT ST. LOUIS:
St. Louis continues to get a lot of respect from Sharps even though they
couldn’t score a touchdown in last week’s 12-6 home loss to Arizona.
That was on a Thursday Night, which gives the Rams some extra rest and
preparation time. That’s certainly part of why the game opened at -6,
and has been bet up in places to -6.5. I would expect Giants money to
come in if the full seven is tested. The total has been bet down from
45.5 to 43.5 because of respect for what’s recently been a great Rams
defense.
BUFFALO AT OAKLAND:
Buffalo has been bet up from an opener of -6 to -6.5. That may strike
you as high for a relatively unproven team like Buffalo on the road on
the other side of the continent in a letdown spot off of Green Bay. But,
many Sharps really love this defense, and see it matching up well with
the sporadic Raiders offense. Remember that many Sharps won big with the
Bills last week vs. the Packers. That said, there is Oakland money
waiting on the sideline to see if +7 comes into play. The Raiders won
for some Sharps on this field two weeks ago when they upset San
Francisco. I think this is a case of Buffalo interest showing
immediately, and Raiders interest biding its time.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DALLAS:
The marquee game of the day hasn’t budged off its opening numbers of
Dallas -3 and 55.5. Sharps didn’t have a meaningful difference in their
own projections. They would bet any move off the key number of three
created by public money before kickoff (and this will be a heavily bet
game by squares because it’s the best TV game of the afternoon). I would
expect squares to bet the Over with these quarterbacks indoors in a
potential shootout. It might take more than 56 to bring in Sharp action
on the Under.
SEATTLE AT ARIZONA (Sunday Night): Arizona is another team dealing with
quarterback injuries, and that’s created another possible teaser
headache for sportsbooks. Seattle is still at -7.5, which means Seattle
-1.5 would be a very popular choice in two-team teasers. And, because
the Over/Under is so low here, that would be one of the best teaser
situations all year in the NFL. Getting SIX points is really meaningful
when the full game Over/Under is only 36 or 36.5 (down from an opener of
37). Sharps aren’t showing much interest on the team side yet at the
full game price…but will definitely be active here with a teaser leg.
NY GIANTS AT ST. LOUIS:
St. Louis continues to get a lot of respect from Sharps even though they
couldn’t score a touchdown in last week’s 12-6 home loss to Arizona.
That was on a Thursday Night, which gives the Rams some extra rest and
preparation time. That’s certainly part of why the game opened at -6,
and has been bet up in places to -6.5. I would expect Giants money to
come in if the full seven is tested. The total has been bet down from
45.5 to 43.5 because of respect for what’s recently been a great Rams
defense.
BUFFALO AT OAKLAND:
Buffalo has been bet up from an opener of -6 to -6.5. That may strike
you as high for a relatively unproven team like Buffalo on the road on
the other side of the continent in a letdown spot off of Green Bay. But,
many Sharps really love this defense, and see it matching up well with
the sporadic Raiders offense. Remember that many Sharps won big with the
Bills last week vs. the Packers. That said, there is Oakland money
waiting on the sideline to see if +7 comes into play. The Raiders won
for some Sharps on this field two weeks ago when they upset San
Francisco. I think this is a case of Buffalo interest showing
immediately, and Raiders interest biding its time.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DALLAS:
The marquee game of the day hasn’t budged off its opening numbers of
Dallas -3 and 55.5. Sharps didn’t have a meaningful difference in their
own projections. They would bet any move off the key number of three
created by public money before kickoff (and this will be a heavily bet
game by squares because it’s the best TV game of the afternoon). I would
expect squares to bet the Over with these quarterbacks indoors in a
potential shootout. It might take more than 56 to bring in Sharp action
on the Under.
SEATTLE AT ARIZONA (Sunday Night): Arizona is another team dealing with
quarterback injuries, and that’s created another possible teaser
headache for sportsbooks. Seattle is still at -7.5, which means Seattle
-1.5 would be a very popular choice in two-team teasers. And, because
the Over/Under is so low here, that would be one of the best teaser
situations all year in the NFL. Getting SIX points is really meaningful
when the full game Over/Under is only 36 or 36.5 (down from an opener of
37). Sharps aren’t showing much interest on the team side yet at the
full game price…but will definitely be active here with a teaser leg.
Play on any .500 + team in its last home game of season if off a SU dog win and playing with revenge vs a .500 + division opponent 17-3 ATS Since 1980...Play on Ariz+
Play on any .500 + team in its last home game of season if off a SU dog win and playing with revenge vs a .500 + division opponent 17-3 ATS Since 1980...Play on Ariz+
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (55-23 ATS since 2010)
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys. Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 33% of games in December (13-26-1) (with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)
On a per snap basis, Dallas defense just as bad as last year – but
since offense is controlling the ball, they benefit from having to
defend 10 LESS snaps per game on average.
Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 11 of 14 games this season As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 6 of last 19
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (55-23 ATS since 2010)
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys. Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 33% of games in December (13-26-1) (with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)
On a per snap basis, Dallas defense just as bad as last year – but
since offense is controlling the ball, they benefit from having to
defend 10 LESS snaps per game on average.
Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 11 of 14 games this season As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 6 of last 19
Biggest underdog for any 11-3 team in modern point spread history (last 25 seasons)
Arizona just keeps winning and covering
Arizona is 18-5 SU last 23 Losing only 5 times against the spread
QB a Problem
Palmer 3 points better than Stanton Stanton 3 points better than Lindley Lindley 2 points better than Thomas
Seattle on road
Thought even better at home, Seattle last 20 on road: 14-6 ATS
***MORE
Last four Seattle opponents: Arizona, SF, Philly, SF
Seattle: 18-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (57-26-2) On road during same period: 42% (35-49-1) If simply play on at home, against on road: 106-61-3 (63% winners)
Biggest underdog for any 11-3 team in modern point spread history (last 25 seasons)
Arizona just keeps winning and covering
Arizona is 18-5 SU last 23 Losing only 5 times against the spread
QB a Problem
Palmer 3 points better than Stanton Stanton 3 points better than Lindley Lindley 2 points better than Thomas
Seattle on road
Thought even better at home, Seattle last 20 on road: 14-6 ATS
***MORE
Last four Seattle opponents: Arizona, SF, Philly, SF
Seattle: 18-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (57-26-2) On road during same period: 42% (35-49-1) If simply play on at home, against on road: 106-61-3 (63% winners)
the home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games in
this series and Seattle is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 visits to Arizona.
Another matchup trend to note in this game is that they have hit the
over in 9 of their last 10 meetings in Arizona.
Overall trends for this game also support the Cardinals. Seattle is
just 1-4 against the spread in its last 5 Week-16 games. Arizona has
covered the spread in 6 straight home games and in 13 of their last 16
games following a win. The Cardinals have also covered in 12 of their
last 15 conference games and 16 of their last 21 games overall. Arizona
is giving up a lot of points at home with a strong defense, so Seattle
winning by 10 could be a challenge, no matter which quarterback is under
center for the Cardinals.
the home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games in
this series and Seattle is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 visits to Arizona.
Another matchup trend to note in this game is that they have hit the
over in 9 of their last 10 meetings in Arizona.
Overall trends for this game also support the Cardinals. Seattle is
just 1-4 against the spread in its last 5 Week-16 games. Arizona has
covered the spread in 6 straight home games and in 13 of their last 16
games following a win. The Cardinals have also covered in 12 of their
last 15 conference games and 16 of their last 21 games overall. Arizona
is giving up a lot of points at home with a strong defense, so Seattle
winning by 10 could be a challenge, no matter which quarterback is under
center for the Cardinals.
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