4-0 last week to continue the run to 10-0 and im obviously due to regress to the mean but i cant help fire on a game where i feel the spot is even better than the oakland one last week.
tampa bay +4 (-110)
this is 90% a cincy fade i have to be honest because you wont find many worse spots than this. playing their 3rd consecutive road game against an out of conference opponent with a big divisional game on deck i find it very hard to see how cincy is up for this game. tampa is winless at home and now the local media have the knives out for some of the team and i think this might be the kick up the a r s e that this team needs. cincy isnt a warm weather team either (and we saw how that affected green bay when they went to miami) and they often play down to the competition so all the intangibles are in tampa bays favour here and the clincher for me in making this a big wager is the line. i automatically thought this line would open in the -6 range and when i saw -4 i was both surprised and happy. i dont think many would have said cincy is only a touchdown better than the bucs on a neutral field and it looks to me that vegas is begging for cincy money putting out this number. the line is already dropping to 3.5 here in the uk with juice on the dog so it seems that the sharps arent waiting for +4.5 or bigger they think 4 is a good number to take and this could even end up @ 3 unless its a set up move.
whether i win or lose this bet i think everything sets up perfectly for tampa here so no tears my end if im completlely wrong.
will add some teasers tomorrow looking to tease detroit down and atlanta up and am also interested in moneyline plays on san fran and minnesota.
heres hoping tampa bay carries on this crazy run !!!!!
4-0 last week to continue the run to 10-0 and im obviously due to regress to the mean but i cant help fire on a game where i feel the spot is even better than the oakland one last week.
tampa bay +4 (-110)
this is 90% a cincy fade i have to be honest because you wont find many worse spots than this. playing their 3rd consecutive road game against an out of conference opponent with a big divisional game on deck i find it very hard to see how cincy is up for this game. tampa is winless at home and now the local media have the knives out for some of the team and i think this might be the kick up the a r s e that this team needs. cincy isnt a warm weather team either (and we saw how that affected green bay when they went to miami) and they often play down to the competition so all the intangibles are in tampa bays favour here and the clincher for me in making this a big wager is the line. i automatically thought this line would open in the -6 range and when i saw -4 i was both surprised and happy. i dont think many would have said cincy is only a touchdown better than the bucs on a neutral field and it looks to me that vegas is begging for cincy money putting out this number. the line is already dropping to 3.5 here in the uk with juice on the dog so it seems that the sharps arent waiting for +4.5 or bigger they think 4 is a good number to take and this could even end up @ 3 unless its a set up move.
whether i win or lose this bet i think everything sets up perfectly for tampa here so no tears my end if im completlely wrong.
will add some teasers tomorrow looking to tease detroit down and atlanta up and am also interested in moneyline plays on san fran and minnesota.
heres hoping tampa bay carries on this crazy run !!!!!
Great write up but these bottom tier teams are hard to bet on considering how bad they are...Cincy -4 square roadchalk play but if Cincy covers its the usual " Why did you put money on a bad team"
Great write up but these bottom tier teams are hard to bet on considering how bad they are...Cincy -4 square roadchalk play but if Cincy covers its the usual " Why did you put money on a bad team"
Being a steeler fan I hate the bungholes but being from Chicago did you see how bad josh McGowan was last week omg he made geno smith look like a hall of Fame QB the way he looked against the horrible bears defense no way I can take Tampa here but I'm also aware of the on coming game as we'll but I can't see any way Tampa wins here lousy defense lousy QB can't find any reason to bet this other then small on Cincy -3. BOL sir great write up
Being a steeler fan I hate the bungholes but being from Chicago did you see how bad josh McGowan was last week omg he made geno smith look like a hall of Fame QB the way he looked against the horrible bears defense no way I can take Tampa here but I'm also aware of the on coming game as we'll but I can't see any way Tampa wins here lousy defense lousy QB can't find any reason to bet this other then small on Cincy -3. BOL sir great write up
no sleight on detroit losing their last 2 games they were both very difficult games against arizona and new england. now they can feast on this pourous chicago d. im not buying the bears those 2 home victories were very unconvincing and i think the lions bounceback here just having to win the game. arizona got the s n o t knocked out of them last week and now have to travel cross country to face a desperate atlanta team. i see this as a very close game and at worst the falcons stay within a touchdown.
san francisco scr -120
seattle was in a must win situation last week and left it all out on the field. now they have to get up again on the road against another tough divisional rival. san fran has been sleepwalking the last couple of weeks (they still won both) in anticipation of this game and i think we get their best effort here.
minnesota (scr) -140
i like this vikings team they are limtied but scrappy and bring it every week. carolina is in disarray and coming off the bye i can see them coming out slow and getting punched in the mouth early by the vikings. they also have the saints on deck (this might not matter) and pre bye it looked like they had pretty much quit on the season.
no sleight on detroit losing their last 2 games they were both very difficult games against arizona and new england. now they can feast on this pourous chicago d. im not buying the bears those 2 home victories were very unconvincing and i think the lions bounceback here just having to win the game. arizona got the s n o t knocked out of them last week and now have to travel cross country to face a desperate atlanta team. i see this as a very close game and at worst the falcons stay within a touchdown.
san francisco scr -120
seattle was in a must win situation last week and left it all out on the field. now they have to get up again on the road against another tough divisional rival. san fran has been sleepwalking the last couple of weeks (they still won both) in anticipation of this game and i think we get their best effort here.
minnesota (scr) -140
i like this vikings team they are limtied but scrappy and bring it every week. carolina is in disarray and coming off the bye i can see them coming out slow and getting punched in the mouth early by the vikings. they also have the saints on deck (this might not matter) and pre bye it looked like they had pretty much quit on the season.
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