Giants off a bye and Colts off a big primetime loss - looks like a good spot to take the G-Men. But I don't buy much into the last weeks loss at Pittsburgh. The two minutes before the half against the Texans seemed like a turning point in the Steelers' season. They are clicking at home and they caught the Colts in a terrible spot. Teams, especially their defenses, come out flat on the road after shutting out any team or after a similar defensive performance. Chargers at Oakland, Eagles at Arizona for example. Both teams got burned by deep balls just like the Colts last Sunday. Since 2003, teams are 10-24 ATS on the road after a shutout at home. Yes that would have been a reason to take the Steelers last week, but I didn't think much about that matchup. I was very high on the Giants after their win against Houston because I saw some tough defense from them, especially against the run. But let's take a look at their season: Their home win against Houston ? Not really impressing. Their win at Washington with six turnovers by the Skins ? Nothing special. Their home win against Atlanta ? Not really impressing. So they have three wins which cannot be called "elite". The Colts have been playing a way better season. Their only notable loss was against the Eagles when they beat themselves in the second half. They controlled the game for three quarters. Andrew Luck is 11-1 SU and 11-1 ATS after a loss. The only loss happened against the Eagles which the Colts shouldn't have lost.
Numbers wise, the only huge discrepancy between both teams is the Colts' passing offense (#5 7.7 YPPA) against the second worst passing defense in the league (#31 8.0 YPPA) which is also missing some key players. Reggie Wayne is expected to be 100% and Hakeem Nicks may finally have his breakout game against his former team. He and Bradshaw will be 110% motivated tonight. The Giants can't stop the Colts' passing game, there have to happen some magical things if they want to stop Andrew Luck from airing it out. Will Eli Manning be able to shred the Colts' secondary ? I doubt so. That will be a very important factor, as their running game is lacking with Rashad Jennings sidelined. Andre Williams is just averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. The passing defense of Indianapolis has been much better than numbers let expect after last week.
A big key factor tonight: Colts are the best defense in third down conversions, letting their opponents only convert 3.5 third downs per game and a percentage of 31.11%. These numbers are inflated after last weeks' loss against Pittsburgh but are still the best numbers in the league. In their three wins, the Giants converted 24 of their 43 third downs (55.8%) while only 16 of 52 in their four losses (30.7%). The Colts have been running a nice scheme on third downs. They cover receivers closely man to man and try to blitz the quarterback with creating space mismatches on one side of the offensive line. That worked out phenomenal this season. With Victor Cruz out and an average o-line, it will be very difficult for Eli Manning to overcome these third down situations under pressure. The Colts don't have huge playmakers on their pass rush but they are working together as a team. Björn Werner has been developing his game a lot.
Third down conversions lead me to another important thing in this game tonight: special teams. If the Giants fail to convert a lot of third downs like I expect, they will face another problem: their punt return coverage is awful. They give up 12.5 yards per punt return - should be a lot of short fields for Indy tonight. Since Andrew Luck became the QB, the Colts are 7-0 ATS against teams who give up more than 12 yards per punt return on average. That's a trend I've found on the Internet. I'm not basing any pick on such a trend, but it's interesting and connects with the third down conversions.
All in all, I believe the Colts are just a level too high for the Giants, whether they come off a bye week or not. Eli will need to have a monster game to hang on with the Colts and I just cannot see it with that offensive arsenal and the strong third down defense of Indianapolis. Andrew Luck has all weapons healthy and will be able to score a lot. Don't see a close one here. Maybe a 34-17 type of game.
Giants off a bye and Colts off a big primetime loss - looks like a good spot to take the G-Men. But I don't buy much into the last weeks loss at Pittsburgh. The two minutes before the half against the Texans seemed like a turning point in the Steelers' season. They are clicking at home and they caught the Colts in a terrible spot. Teams, especially their defenses, come out flat on the road after shutting out any team or after a similar defensive performance. Chargers at Oakland, Eagles at Arizona for example. Both teams got burned by deep balls just like the Colts last Sunday. Since 2003, teams are 10-24 ATS on the road after a shutout at home. Yes that would have been a reason to take the Steelers last week, but I didn't think much about that matchup. I was very high on the Giants after their win against Houston because I saw some tough defense from them, especially against the run. But let's take a look at their season: Their home win against Houston ? Not really impressing. Their win at Washington with six turnovers by the Skins ? Nothing special. Their home win against Atlanta ? Not really impressing. So they have three wins which cannot be called "elite". The Colts have been playing a way better season. Their only notable loss was against the Eagles when they beat themselves in the second half. They controlled the game for three quarters. Andrew Luck is 11-1 SU and 11-1 ATS after a loss. The only loss happened against the Eagles which the Colts shouldn't have lost.
Numbers wise, the only huge discrepancy between both teams is the Colts' passing offense (#5 7.7 YPPA) against the second worst passing defense in the league (#31 8.0 YPPA) which is also missing some key players. Reggie Wayne is expected to be 100% and Hakeem Nicks may finally have his breakout game against his former team. He and Bradshaw will be 110% motivated tonight. The Giants can't stop the Colts' passing game, there have to happen some magical things if they want to stop Andrew Luck from airing it out. Will Eli Manning be able to shred the Colts' secondary ? I doubt so. That will be a very important factor, as their running game is lacking with Rashad Jennings sidelined. Andre Williams is just averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. The passing defense of Indianapolis has been much better than numbers let expect after last week.
A big key factor tonight: Colts are the best defense in third down conversions, letting their opponents only convert 3.5 third downs per game and a percentage of 31.11%. These numbers are inflated after last weeks' loss against Pittsburgh but are still the best numbers in the league. In their three wins, the Giants converted 24 of their 43 third downs (55.8%) while only 16 of 52 in their four losses (30.7%). The Colts have been running a nice scheme on third downs. They cover receivers closely man to man and try to blitz the quarterback with creating space mismatches on one side of the offensive line. That worked out phenomenal this season. With Victor Cruz out and an average o-line, it will be very difficult for Eli Manning to overcome these third down situations under pressure. The Colts don't have huge playmakers on their pass rush but they are working together as a team. Björn Werner has been developing his game a lot.
Third down conversions lead me to another important thing in this game tonight: special teams. If the Giants fail to convert a lot of third downs like I expect, they will face another problem: their punt return coverage is awful. They give up 12.5 yards per punt return - should be a lot of short fields for Indy tonight. Since Andrew Luck became the QB, the Colts are 7-0 ATS against teams who give up more than 12 yards per punt return on average. That's a trend I've found on the Internet. I'm not basing any pick on such a trend, but it's interesting and connects with the third down conversions.
All in all, I believe the Colts are just a level too high for the Giants, whether they come off a bye week or not. Eli will need to have a monster game to hang on with the Colts and I just cannot see it with that offensive arsenal and the strong third down defense of Indianapolis. Andrew Luck has all weapons healthy and will be able to score a lot. Don't see a close one here. Maybe a 34-17 type of game.
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