Popular team GB Packers at 5-2 comes into the Superdome Sunday night on a 4 game win streak and looking forward to a bye next week. NO Saints on the other hand come back home after a heartbreaking lost on the road at Det and setting at 2-4 on the year. Motivation will be with the Saints along with home field advantage. GB is 2-2 on the road this year but that includes a last sec win against Mia who they beat in the turnover battle 3-0 and a win against division rival Chi winning the turnover battle 2-0. Speaking of turnovers, GB leads the league in TO margin at +10 while NO is near the bottom at -7. GB also comes in with a surprising #5 ranked pass D, #31 ranked rush D, and surprising #25 total offense (we know they don't run but the pass O is sitting at #20). A closer look at their defense shows that they have faced total offenses averaging around 19th best and passing offenses averaging 22nd best. NO defense is not good for sure, but hasn't been helped by the 11 turnovers and ranks #28 in pass D and #21 and they haven't generated a great pass rush with only 9 sacks. But they do have the #2 pass offense in the league and went up agains a top ranked pass D on the road in Detroit last week and were still able to put up above their average in passing yards in a close game. BIG PLAY here on NO, GB has severe problems on defense which have been masked by playing a weak schedule and winning the turnover battle and they haven't been the offensive juggernaut that it appears with some large recent victories. NO offense will be clicking with high motivation and GB doesn't win the turnover battle and can't keep up. Think NO wins this one running away. Think that is why NO was favored and why 73% are on GB and the line hasn't budged, but don't be surprised to see this move gameday towards GB when the books try and sucker in some additional GB money.
NOTE: I'm not ready to back a bad Atlanta team with serious injuries on the OL and playing in London this week on back to back road games but note that Atl is #5 in passing offense and that Det did give up a lot of yards to a similar offense NO team. Det has been relying on defense and coming off 2 wins sitting at 5-2 and looking forward to a bye next week don't be surprised if you don't get their best game but with the OL problems with ATL hard to play that.
I will probably add more later but this looks like the best play on the board to me.
Popular team GB Packers at 5-2 comes into the Superdome Sunday night on a 4 game win streak and looking forward to a bye next week. NO Saints on the other hand come back home after a heartbreaking lost on the road at Det and setting at 2-4 on the year. Motivation will be with the Saints along with home field advantage. GB is 2-2 on the road this year but that includes a last sec win against Mia who they beat in the turnover battle 3-0 and a win against division rival Chi winning the turnover battle 2-0. Speaking of turnovers, GB leads the league in TO margin at +10 while NO is near the bottom at -7. GB also comes in with a surprising #5 ranked pass D, #31 ranked rush D, and surprising #25 total offense (we know they don't run but the pass O is sitting at #20). A closer look at their defense shows that they have faced total offenses averaging around 19th best and passing offenses averaging 22nd best. NO defense is not good for sure, but hasn't been helped by the 11 turnovers and ranks #28 in pass D and #21 and they haven't generated a great pass rush with only 9 sacks. But they do have the #2 pass offense in the league and went up agains a top ranked pass D on the road in Detroit last week and were still able to put up above their average in passing yards in a close game. BIG PLAY here on NO, GB has severe problems on defense which have been masked by playing a weak schedule and winning the turnover battle and they haven't been the offensive juggernaut that it appears with some large recent victories. NO offense will be clicking with high motivation and GB doesn't win the turnover battle and can't keep up. Think NO wins this one running away. Think that is why NO was favored and why 73% are on GB and the line hasn't budged, but don't be surprised to see this move gameday towards GB when the books try and sucker in some additional GB money.
NOTE: I'm not ready to back a bad Atlanta team with serious injuries on the OL and playing in London this week on back to back road games but note that Atl is #5 in passing offense and that Det did give up a lot of yards to a similar offense NO team. Det has been relying on defense and coming off 2 wins sitting at 5-2 and looking forward to a bye next week don't be surprised if you don't get their best game but with the OL problems with ATL hard to play that.
I will probably add more later but this looks like the best play on the board to me.
"They do have the #2 pass offense in the league and went up agains a top ranked pass D on the road in Detroit last week and were still able to put up above their average in passing yards in a close game."
"They do have the #2 pass offense in the league and went up agains a top ranked pass D on the road in Detroit last week and were still able to put up above their average in passing yards in a close game."
13-14 YTDNew Orleans -1.5Popular team GB Packers at 5-2 comes into the Superdome Sunday night on a 4 game win streak and looking forward to a bye next week. NO Saints on the other hand come back home after a heartbreaking lost on the road at Det and setting at 2-4 on the year. Motivation will be with the Saints along with home field advantage. GB is 2-2 on the road this year but that includes a last sec win against Mia who they beat in the turnover battle 3-0 and a win against division rival Chi winning the turnover battle 2-0. Speaking of turnovers, GB leads the league in TO margin at +10 while NO is near the bottom at -7. GB also comes in with a surprising #5 ranked pass D, #31 ranked rush D, and surprising #25 total offense (we know they don't run but the pass O is sitting at #20). A closer look at their defense shows that they have faced total offenses averaging around 19th best and passing offenses averaging 22nd best. NO defense is not good for sure, but hasn't been helped by the 11 turnovers and ranks #28 in pass D and #21 and they haven't generated a great pass rush with only 9 sacks. But they do have the #2 pass offense in the league and went up agains a top ranked pass D on the road in Detroit last week and were still able to put up above their average in passing yards in a close game. BIG PLAY here on NO, GB has severe problems on defense which have been masked by playing a weak schedule and winning the turnover battle and they haven't been the offensive juggernaut that it appears with some large recent victories. NO offense will be clicking with high motivation and GB doesn't win the turnover battle and can't keep up. Think NO wins this one running away. Think that is why NO was favored and why 73% are on GB and the line hasn't budged, but don't be surprised to see this move gameday towards GB when the books try and sucker in some additional GB money.NOTE: I'm not ready to back a bad Atlanta team with serious injuries on the OL and playing in London this week on back to back road games but note that Atl is #5 in passing offense and that Det did give up a lot of yards to a similar offense NO team. Det has been relying on defense and coming off 2 wins sitting at 5-2 and looking forward to a bye next week don't be surprised if you don't get their best game but with the OL problems with ATL hard to play that.I will probably add more later but this looks like the best play on the board to me.
13-14 YTDNew Orleans -1.5Popular team GB Packers at 5-2 comes into the Superdome Sunday night on a 4 game win streak and looking forward to a bye next week. NO Saints on the other hand come back home after a heartbreaking lost on the road at Det and setting at 2-4 on the year. Motivation will be with the Saints along with home field advantage. GB is 2-2 on the road this year but that includes a last sec win against Mia who they beat in the turnover battle 3-0 and a win against division rival Chi winning the turnover battle 2-0. Speaking of turnovers, GB leads the league in TO margin at +10 while NO is near the bottom at -7. GB also comes in with a surprising #5 ranked pass D, #31 ranked rush D, and surprising #25 total offense (we know they don't run but the pass O is sitting at #20). A closer look at their defense shows that they have faced total offenses averaging around 19th best and passing offenses averaging 22nd best. NO defense is not good for sure, but hasn't been helped by the 11 turnovers and ranks #28 in pass D and #21 and they haven't generated a great pass rush with only 9 sacks. But they do have the #2 pass offense in the league and went up agains a top ranked pass D on the road in Detroit last week and were still able to put up above their average in passing yards in a close game. BIG PLAY here on NO, GB has severe problems on defense which have been masked by playing a weak schedule and winning the turnover battle and they haven't been the offensive juggernaut that it appears with some large recent victories. NO offense will be clicking with high motivation and GB doesn't win the turnover battle and can't keep up. Think NO wins this one running away. Think that is why NO was favored and why 73% are on GB and the line hasn't budged, but don't be surprised to see this move gameday towards GB when the books try and sucker in some additional GB money.NOTE: I'm not ready to back a bad Atlanta team with serious injuries on the OL and playing in London this week on back to back road games but note that Atl is #5 in passing offense and that Det did give up a lot of yards to a similar offense NO team. Det has been relying on defense and coming off 2 wins sitting at 5-2 and looking forward to a bye next week don't be surprised if you don't get their best game but with the OL problems with ATL hard to play that.I will probably add more later but this looks like the best play on the board to me.
BOL but I'm opposite of this one.... many people are fooled, this isn't the "saints of old". Struggled to get their 2 wins at home this year vs 2 of the bottom cellar teams to say the least. I also believe this is the best packer team since the SB in 2010. Defense was built for controlling the pass game as they have done.
BOL but I'm opposite of this one.... many people are fooled, this isn't the "saints of old". Struggled to get their 2 wins at home this year vs 2 of the bottom cellar teams to say the least. I also believe this is the best packer team since the SB in 2010. Defense was built for controlling the pass game as they have done.
Call me crazy but I like it. Two bad teams for sure but TB off a bye and Vikings back to back road games with a rookie QB. Tampa has also covered the last 6 games against Minn. I like that this one is under the radar too. Normally don't think the bye is an advantage and don't know Lovie Smiths record (nor do I like him) but they have struggled picking up his defense and perhaps the bye did them some good here.
Call me crazy but I like it. Two bad teams for sure but TB off a bye and Vikings back to back road games with a rookie QB. Tampa has also covered the last 6 games against Minn. I like that this one is under the radar too. Normally don't think the bye is an advantage and don't know Lovie Smiths record (nor do I like him) but they have struggled picking up his defense and perhaps the bye did them some good here.
NOTE: I'm not ready to back a bad Atlanta team with serious injuries on the OL and playing in London this week on back to back road games but note that Atl is #5 in passing offense and that Det did give up a lot of yards to a similar offense NO team. Det has been relying on defense and coming off 2 wins sitting at 5-2 and looking forward to a bye next week don't be surprised if you don't get their best game but with the OL problems with ATL hard to play that.
I will probably add more later but this looks like the best play on the board to me.
NOTE: I'm not ready to back a bad Atlanta team with serious injuries on the OL and playing in London this week on back to back road games but note that Atl is #5 in passing offense and that Det did give up a lot of yards to a similar offense NO team. Det has been relying on defense and coming off 2 wins sitting at 5-2 and looking forward to a bye next week don't be surprised if you don't get their best game but with the OL problems with ATL hard to play that.
I will probably add more later but this looks like the best play on the board to me.
Considering Tenn if it hits 4 will play. Fading back to back road teams especially as road favorites. Jags also fit this but not much a road game for Miami.
Considering Tenn if it hits 4 will play. Fading back to back road teams especially as road favorites. Jags also fit this but not much a road game for Miami.
I gotta get posted picks in earlier, too much trying to post and bet near gametime. I posted it so I'll count it but I actually laid off the Jets and went with Tenn, which was equally crappy.
2-2 with large play on NO tonight. Laid off completely in the afternoon.
I gotta get posted picks in earlier, too much trying to post and bet near gametime. I posted it so I'll count it but I actually laid off the Jets and went with Tenn, which was equally crappy.
2-2 with large play on NO tonight. Laid off completely in the afternoon.
3-2 hitting big play and favorite play of the week on New Orleans.
Game even played out pretty close to what I thought. This game really exposed just how weak GB is on defense as their #5 ranked pass defense let Drew Brees go 27-32 (84% completion rate) for 311 yards. But the reason he was so successful is because GB may possibly be the worst rushing defense in the league as a mediocre NO rush offense ripped GB for 193 yrds on the ground, with Mark Ingram rushing for 24-172, or 7.2 yrd/carry! Against a motivated team with a good QB this equates to being unable to stop the other team and unlikely to win the TO battle, they lost that 3-1 last night. In situations like this as great as Aaron Rodgers is it makes it very difficult for them to be able to keep up and the fact that he is that good but the team can't run the ball equates to not being able to control the ball/time of possession to keep that ball defense off the field. And probably most importantly is these numbers are all fine but the motivation/situation needs to be right for this to play off so that the teams perform as expected and the calls go your way. Green Bay could afford to lose one and New Orleans was desparate to get a win.
Anyway, just wanted to point that out to the forum for all to learn.
Speaking of learning I need to learn to get my homework done earlier and avoid jumping on last min to get some picks and bets in. Should have never put the Jets down and Tenn was a bad last sec call. Tampa was a decent call and was covering late but their were much better games.
16-16 YTD.
Not sure I'll play MNF. With 6 wins in a row the motivation for Dallas to blowout anyone is low and odds are stacking for them to have a very bad game. They have weakness on defense which can be exposed especially if not really motivated. No reason at all to give the pts and back Dallas in this one. That's not to say they don't end up covering. Its more of a question of trusting Wash to not mess it up. With Colt McCoy at QB and coaching questions not sure I do but may take a closer look.
3-2 hitting big play and favorite play of the week on New Orleans.
Game even played out pretty close to what I thought. This game really exposed just how weak GB is on defense as their #5 ranked pass defense let Drew Brees go 27-32 (84% completion rate) for 311 yards. But the reason he was so successful is because GB may possibly be the worst rushing defense in the league as a mediocre NO rush offense ripped GB for 193 yrds on the ground, with Mark Ingram rushing for 24-172, or 7.2 yrd/carry! Against a motivated team with a good QB this equates to being unable to stop the other team and unlikely to win the TO battle, they lost that 3-1 last night. In situations like this as great as Aaron Rodgers is it makes it very difficult for them to be able to keep up and the fact that he is that good but the team can't run the ball equates to not being able to control the ball/time of possession to keep that ball defense off the field. And probably most importantly is these numbers are all fine but the motivation/situation needs to be right for this to play off so that the teams perform as expected and the calls go your way. Green Bay could afford to lose one and New Orleans was desparate to get a win.
Anyway, just wanted to point that out to the forum for all to learn.
Speaking of learning I need to learn to get my homework done earlier and avoid jumping on last min to get some picks and bets in. Should have never put the Jets down and Tenn was a bad last sec call. Tampa was a decent call and was covering late but their were much better games.
16-16 YTD.
Not sure I'll play MNF. With 6 wins in a row the motivation for Dallas to blowout anyone is low and odds are stacking for them to have a very bad game. They have weakness on defense which can be exposed especially if not really motivated. No reason at all to give the pts and back Dallas in this one. That's not to say they don't end up covering. Its more of a question of trusting Wash to not mess it up. With Colt McCoy at QB and coaching questions not sure I do but may take a closer look.
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