The NFL is Back..............................
Thought I'd take a look at SB winners the year before and see if anything worthwhile can be detrermined.
Here are the Results................................
11 of the 14 SB winners since 2000 out-gained their opponents in total yards. (78.6%)
10 out-played opps in ave gain per play with 1 being even.(75%)
10 out-played opps in ave per pass with 1 being even.(75%)
1 of 14 teams was out-played in all 3 area's the year before. That'd be the 2000 Pats the year before winning the SB in 2001 VS Rams.
They're the only team with a losing record to win as well. And when we consider how unlikely their SB win was, the tuck rule and kicking a FG in a snow-storm to win that game. As well as being the only team I'm aware of that had their defense and special teams score as many TD's in the playoffs as the offenses did. And on top of that the starting QB going down and the back-up comes off the bench to save the day and become the least intercepted QB in playoff history his 1st 3 years in the playoffs.
We can see how low % such a team winning the SB would be.
What the info seems to suggest is teams winning SB's are already pretty good teams the year before. Teams don't go from being bad to winning the SB in 1 year.
Let's look at teams winning at least 10 games the year before...........................
8 of 8 teams out-gained opps in total yards by at least 23 yards
7 of 8 teams out-gained opps by at least 40 yds.
8 of 8 teams out-played opps in ave per play by at least .4
8 of 8 teams out-played opps in ave per pass attempt by at least .5
7 of 8 out-played opps in ave per pass attempt by at least 1 yd
Now we get a much better idea that when good teams with good records go-on to win the SB the next season they are already pretty strong teams.
10 win teams in 2013......................................................
49ers +6.8 total yds........+.4 ave/play....ave /pass +.8..... slim chance
Panther +15.5 yds................+.2 ave/play.......+.4 ave/pass......... slimmest chance to none
Chiefs -30.6 yds.......+.3 ave/play................-.5 ave/pass.......................forget it Chiefs fans
Saints +93.8 yds.......+.7 ave/play..............+1.5 ave/pass.............strong possibility
Eagles +23.3 yds..... +.8 ave/play......+.8 ave/pass................possible
Zona +28.9 yds...............+.4...................+1..............possible
Colts -15.3 yds................-.3..............-.3...............we won't see the Colts in the SB this year
Bengals +62.7 yds........+.7ave/play........+1.6 ave/pass.............strong possibility
Pats +11.4..............+.1.................+.1.........................dream on Pats fans
We're left with 2 strong possiblities ---- Saints and Bengals
We'll check-back on these teams as the year progresses.
Best of Luck this season boys and enjoy another great year in the NFL................................................