I have a new
strategy I want to try out this season in the NFL. Let me know if you
think it's a terrible idea, or if it just might work. I'll outline my
reason for it below, but if you just want to skip to the meat, then
jump to the last paragraph.
So my reasoning for
this strategy is because I don't really have time to sit behind my
computer all week and gather stats and info for the upcoming NFL
weekend games. I'm sure most of you are in the same boat. I've heard
interviewers with professional sports bettors where they say they
spend 10 hours or more a day collecting info and data in order to
make their plays for the week. These guys are the best of the best
and they still put in those kind of hours. Now for us average joes,
that's just not realistic. My second reason for this strategy is that
it eliminates chasing towards the end of the year and throwing good
money after bad. Hardly any of us make a profit at this, let alone a
meaningful profit, so with this strategy I think we can just kick
back and watch the games knowing our plays have been made. If you
stick to it, it will eliminate a lot of those plays at the end of the
year where you are really just picking games to try and get some
losses back (we've all been there).
Here's the big
strategy! I think we should pick a few teams to either play on ATS
every game or against every game ATS. Sounds crazy right? Knowing you
will pick a team without seeing the spread? Ya I know, it does sound
crazy, but like I said, none of us have the time to really collect
the stats and info needed to get an edge on Vegas. So with this
strategy, I think we can pick teams that are way over-hyped to fade
all year, or teams that are way under-valued to bet on all year. I
believe this will give us line value week after week; with minimal
research needed! Hopefully we can pick a few teams that go 9-7 or
better ATS and turn a profit. If we come up losers, it should be a
small loss, and guarantee action every weekend which is a plus in my
book! I thought about also using this strategy for over/unders by
picking dead under teams all year or high powered offense teams, so
let me know your thoughts on that too.
Crazy idea? Just
might work? I'd love to hear all thoughts!
I have a new
strategy I want to try out this season in the NFL. Let me know if you
think it's a terrible idea, or if it just might work. I'll outline my
reason for it below, but if you just want to skip to the meat, then
jump to the last paragraph.
So my reasoning for
this strategy is because I don't really have time to sit behind my
computer all week and gather stats and info for the upcoming NFL
weekend games. I'm sure most of you are in the same boat. I've heard
interviewers with professional sports bettors where they say they
spend 10 hours or more a day collecting info and data in order to
make their plays for the week. These guys are the best of the best
and they still put in those kind of hours. Now for us average joes,
that's just not realistic. My second reason for this strategy is that
it eliminates chasing towards the end of the year and throwing good
money after bad. Hardly any of us make a profit at this, let alone a
meaningful profit, so with this strategy I think we can just kick
back and watch the games knowing our plays have been made. If you
stick to it, it will eliminate a lot of those plays at the end of the
year where you are really just picking games to try and get some
losses back (we've all been there).
Here's the big
strategy! I think we should pick a few teams to either play on ATS
every game or against every game ATS. Sounds crazy right? Knowing you
will pick a team without seeing the spread? Ya I know, it does sound
crazy, but like I said, none of us have the time to really collect
the stats and info needed to get an edge on Vegas. So with this
strategy, I think we can pick teams that are way over-hyped to fade
all year, or teams that are way under-valued to bet on all year. I
believe this will give us line value week after week; with minimal
research needed! Hopefully we can pick a few teams that go 9-7 or
better ATS and turn a profit. If we come up losers, it should be a
small loss, and guarantee action every weekend which is a plus in my
book! I thought about also using this strategy for over/unders by
picking dead under teams all year or high powered offense teams, so
let me know your thoughts on that too.
Crazy idea? Just
might work? I'd love to hear all thoughts!
I'm liking the under on Philadelphia games - especially early in the season. If you think about, teams that run at a quick pace (no-huddle) need a QB that can diagnose plays at the line of scrimmage ... I don't think Vick or Foles are capable of that. Furthermore, opposing teams can slow down the pace by killing the play clock and being methodical on offense. Right now, they are being overvalued due to the offensive explosion Chip produced at Oregon ... this is a much different game.
I heard an expert on ESPN radio say that he will side with Jacksonville every time this year unless they are more than 3-pt favorites (won't happen) or bigger than 10 pt dogs. He's been right the past three years.
The other team I'm really liking (and is undervalued) is Arizona - Carson Palmer might not be elite, but he is much better than what they had to work with last year. Plus, there is no way that run game is worse than it was last year. Defense will take a step back with Horton gone, but Arians is a very good coach that get the most out of what he has to work with.
I'm liking the under on Philadelphia games - especially early in the season. If you think about, teams that run at a quick pace (no-huddle) need a QB that can diagnose plays at the line of scrimmage ... I don't think Vick or Foles are capable of that. Furthermore, opposing teams can slow down the pace by killing the play clock and being methodical on offense. Right now, they are being overvalued due to the offensive explosion Chip produced at Oregon ... this is a much different game.
I heard an expert on ESPN radio say that he will side with Jacksonville every time this year unless they are more than 3-pt favorites (won't happen) or bigger than 10 pt dogs. He's been right the past three years.
The other team I'm really liking (and is undervalued) is Arizona - Carson Palmer might not be elite, but he is much better than what they had to work with last year. Plus, there is no way that run game is worse than it was last year. Defense will take a step back with Horton gone, but Arians is a very good coach that get the most out of what he has to work with.
Thanks for the input. Ya I heard that same interview on espn radio which kind of led me to try this strategy.
As for your picks, I agree with eagles unders. I don't know where I stand on Arizona. Could go either way.
I will tell you one team I think is a great fade all year and that's the Denver Broncos. It really pains my heart to say that because I'm a huge broncos fan, but they are just receiving sooo much hype right now. I don't see how they can live up to all of it. Losing their center last week will be a real detriment as well.
I'd love to hear more thoughts on this- I think we can pick some real winners this year!
Thanks for the input. Ya I heard that same interview on espn radio which kind of led me to try this strategy.
As for your picks, I agree with eagles unders. I don't know where I stand on Arizona. Could go either way.
I will tell you one team I think is a great fade all year and that's the Denver Broncos. It really pains my heart to say that because I'm a huge broncos fan, but they are just receiving sooo much hype right now. I don't see how they can live up to all of it. Losing their center last week will be a real detriment as well.
I'd love to hear more thoughts on this- I think we can pick some real winners this year!
Get to know alot of ur local bookies, ask infor from them before ur placing ur bets... Don't ever watch ESPN, when u do the sport-betting Don't ever bet crazy with ur favorite teams.. Always watch the Line Movement always goes against with the public money... avoid all those televise games..especially on the NFL avoid those big games and start betting those unknown colleges games... BOL to U and to all of us this season......
Get to know alot of ur local bookies, ask infor from them before ur placing ur bets... Don't ever watch ESPN, when u do the sport-betting Don't ever bet crazy with ur favorite teams.. Always watch the Line Movement always goes against with the public money... avoid all those televise games..especially on the NFL avoid those big games and start betting those unknown colleges games... BOL to U and to all of us this season......
"Here's the big strategy! I think we should pick a few teams to either play on ATS every game or against every game ATS. Sounds crazy right? Knowing you will pick a team without seeing the spread? Ya I know, it does sound crazy, but like I said, none of us have the time to really collect the stats and info needed to get an edge on Vegas. So with this strategy, I think we can pick teams that are way over-hyped to fade all year, or teams that are way under-valued to bet on all year. I believe this will give us line value week after week; with minimal research needed! Hopefully we can pick a few teams that go 9-7 or better ATS and turn a profit. If we come up losers, it should be a small loss, and guarantee action every weekend which is a plus in my book! I thought about also using this strategy for over/unders by picking dead under teams all year or high powered offense teams, so let me know your thoughts on that too.".
Sounds good! Keep fading Washington Redskins !!! all year.
And keep playing Over totals for NEW ENGLAND Games! no matter what their component are....!!!GLuck!
"Here's the big strategy! I think we should pick a few teams to either play on ATS every game or against every game ATS. Sounds crazy right? Knowing you will pick a team without seeing the spread? Ya I know, it does sound crazy, but like I said, none of us have the time to really collect the stats and info needed to get an edge on Vegas. So with this strategy, I think we can pick teams that are way over-hyped to fade all year, or teams that are way under-valued to bet on all year. I believe this will give us line value week after week; with minimal research needed! Hopefully we can pick a few teams that go 9-7 or better ATS and turn a profit. If we come up losers, it should be a small loss, and guarantee action every weekend which is a plus in my book! I thought about also using this strategy for over/unders by picking dead under teams all year or high powered offense teams, so let me know your thoughts on that too.".
Sounds good! Keep fading Washington Redskins !!! all year.
And keep playing Over totals for NEW ENGLAND Games! no matter what their component are....!!!GLuck!
Get to know alot of ur local bookies, ask infor from them before ur placing ur bets... Don't ever watch ESPN, when u do the sport-betting Don't ever bet crazy with ur favorite teams.. Always watch the Line Movement always goes against with the public money... avoid all those televise games..especially on the NFL avoid those big games and start betting those unknown colleges games... BOL to U and to all of us this season......
Get to know alot of ur local bookies, ask infor from them before ur placing ur bets... Don't ever watch ESPN, when u do the sport-betting Don't ever bet crazy with ur favorite teams.. Always watch the Line Movement always goes against with the public money... avoid all those televise games..especially on the NFL avoid those big games and start betting those unknown colleges games... BOL to U and to all of us this season......
When I was in college back in the 80's - because we didn't have a lot of info. - we came up with a theory - if book makers have been around since the days of slaves in Egypt - then you need to bet against the public. Thus you look at a line and if it goes from 3 to 2.5 - then you take the favorite vice versa. I got hooked on this and made great money for a couple of years - then in 1989 - the public won everything and I got screwed big time. I learned a lot about collecting and analyzing data and considering the spread etc. I get your point about time it takes to analyze, however, if you can't put in a little time (I put in about 6 hours a week and I do okay) then your truly gambling vice investing. If you really wanna double your money.....fold it up and stick it in your pocket. I use team ranks, sagarin ranks and the opening line to watch patterns and decide who to bet it's better than....simply following the spread and deciding. good luck to you.
When I was in college back in the 80's - because we didn't have a lot of info. - we came up with a theory - if book makers have been around since the days of slaves in Egypt - then you need to bet against the public. Thus you look at a line and if it goes from 3 to 2.5 - then you take the favorite vice versa. I got hooked on this and made great money for a couple of years - then in 1989 - the public won everything and I got screwed big time. I learned a lot about collecting and analyzing data and considering the spread etc. I get your point about time it takes to analyze, however, if you can't put in a little time (I put in about 6 hours a week and I do okay) then your truly gambling vice investing. If you really wanna double your money.....fold it up and stick it in your pocket. I use team ranks, sagarin ranks and the opening line to watch patterns and decide who to bet it's better than....simply following the spread and deciding. good luck to you.
This is pretty similar to betting Team Totals (O/U wins for the season)
i would agree with you on that one. the difference to me is you have more to root for each weekend. it's just more exciting when there is a spread involved. also, you can decide to stop playing a team if you feel like it's going nowhere or if it's been a wild success and regression is coming. for example, a team goes 9-2 out of the gate, you could just quit while you're ahead. conversely, a team could start 2-9 and you may decide to take your ball and go home. neither situation might be a good idea, but the option is there.
also, i feel like there is a potential for bigger gains (or losses) this way. which is more exciting
This is pretty similar to betting Team Totals (O/U wins for the season)
i would agree with you on that one. the difference to me is you have more to root for each weekend. it's just more exciting when there is a spread involved. also, you can decide to stop playing a team if you feel like it's going nowhere or if it's been a wild success and regression is coming. for example, a team goes 9-2 out of the gate, you could just quit while you're ahead. conversely, a team could start 2-9 and you may decide to take your ball and go home. neither situation might be a good idea, but the option is there.
also, i feel like there is a potential for bigger gains (or losses) this way. which is more exciting
I would recommend betting small amounts of money or even air bet than to bet large on an unproven system.
completely agree. i plan on just posting this strategy in the forum this year. i wouldn't actually play money on it until i was confident. hopefully a few of you successful bettors can chime in and we can make something worth betting next year!
I would recommend betting small amounts of money or even air bet than to bet large on an unproven system.
completely agree. i plan on just posting this strategy in the forum this year. i wouldn't actually play money on it until i was confident. hopefully a few of you successful bettors can chime in and we can make something worth betting next year!
Unfortunately "Over- hyped" and "under-valued" teams get noticed quickly by books and coincidently lines will adjust so there is not value week after week. Nonetheless, gl this season.
Unfortunately "Over- hyped" and "under-valued" teams get noticed quickly by books and coincidently lines will adjust so there is not value week after week. Nonetheless, gl this season.
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