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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Superbowl pick. feedback appreciated.
bbitw send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bbitw
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#1
Posted: 1/29/2013 7:53:37 PM

So lets start with this you have the more experienced team and coach, with his leader retiring after beating 2 of the best qbs that have ever played the game against an inexperienced team, with a qb in his first season that took over halfway through and with the worst kicker currently in the nfl. So why is this line favoring them ?

I think the line is just set right and is begging for ravens money.  you are not a favorite against the packers and falcons in the dome just to be a dog or pick against the ravens. If the line was set any lower than -3 all the action would had been on the niners.

Now lets go on with the Ravens.. first of all I don't think the Ray Lewis retirement is even an angle, I know he is their leader and one of the best at his position ever but this is not Disney story there are no good ending stories in sports, of course sometimes they happen but I can bet you there are a lot of more times were a guy dreamed retirement or feel good story has ended on the loosing side. he is retiring because he is old, he is way past his prime and  he is not even 100% its not like he is playing inspired football or anything close to it.

I know the Ravens have been so close all fo those times but that tells me more about their inability to close out games on big stages than anything else.

Flacco playing better angle its not that accurate he has made some plays but some of them are jump balls or plays where their recievers take advantage of the physicallity and make a play. its not like he has those numbers by being manning like pin point accurate.

They didn't won in Denver, the broncos lost that game and the patriots were not hungry enough, they didn't played like they used to.. they wasted possesions on enemy territory, dropped passes, commited the turnovers and went into panick mode after the Ridley fumble. Brady mooved the ball pretty well in that last quarter, had he had that sense of urgency all game long with patience of not being down it would had been a different story.

For those of you who worry about strenght of schedule lets remember their division wasn't as fought as years before, nor the teams they played against. lets not talk either about the rams games because you could as well talk about the Ravens vs.Chiefs game, or coming back against a pathetic chargers team or loosing to the Batch led steelers withouth Polamalu. this defense wasn't as good as years in the pasts, they didn't had the same pressure and the secondary has some holes. want to talk about beating Brady and Manning, well I think Rodgers is as good but he is mobile something they are not. Good and physical recievers ? Tony Gonzalez, jones, jennings and nelson can fit that category.

On the other hand you have the less experienced coach and a relatively new qb in the league in its first year.

I don't think Jim has to loose as much as his brother to finally get to the biggest stage and win, its now always like that. there are people who win the first time they try, not everybody needs to loose or to get close to finally win it. I think he is as good a gooch as his brother and gets his troops up for every challenge, he doesn't quit or panic and has the same if not more confidence that his brother.

As for CK goes he has shown me more than what I could ask, this kid took mid season and has led this team to the superbowl, of course he is and will be nervous but he has shown he can handle it. in your first playoff game you get a pick six at the beginning of the game against Rorgers and comes roaring back, he was down 17 at the Georgia dome against a pretty good Falcons after some horrible ofensive series and didn't panicked and got his team back in the game even with some dropped passes and the Crabtree fumble at the 1. that tells you about this kids poise and confidence. and lets not forget his ability to move, I think thats the X factor on this game.

I think this game is more about the new blood and young players rather than the old players and their experience.

The only real disadvantage the niners have is Akers, other than that I think they are ok.

My money is on the niners ML, best of luck with your bets.

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DaBestEver24
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#2
Posted: 1/29/2013 9:12:51 PM
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forty9ersfan80
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#3
Posted: 1/29/2013 9:44:02 PM
give the pts. niners by 10
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KnockDown9 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#4
Posted: 1/29/2013 10:30:43 PM
Lots of good points....
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Gavinnick send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:30:13 PM
Good points 

however,


one needs to look deeper at the games played in the Playoffs 

The Reg, Season carries little weight at this point 

lets examine the last 3 games only....

I think you will see ravens are clearly the better defense and offense 

but good luck 
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#6
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:32:48 PM
Kap is the X-factor of the game.  Niners win and cover.
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