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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Atlanta should have gone for 2 up 26-7 .....
vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#76
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:47:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

This is why so many people don't post on Covers.

You have pimply 12 year olds calling people morons, stupid, dumb,etc. I don't know if you have taken reading in your school yet but I'm sure you will one day. What don't YOU understand about my post? You are the genius. I think you need to quit your job at McDonalds and go to an NFL team to sell your groundbreaking ideas. You can possibly be standing beside Belichik or Tomlin with your crystal ball and let them know if their two point conversion is going to work at the end of the game. 

WOW...
I do want to thank you though. I'm home, sick with the flu and you just game me one of those laugh out loud moments. 

Almost 50000 posts???
Do you only comment on your own posts or are you one of those guys that have an opinion on everything on this site? You are the genius after all and I guess we should just thank you for your thoughts (apparently A LOT of them.) Good luck with your NFL career PAL.

And there it is.

The concession.

I love when the response has nothing to do with the debate at hand, but criticizes my avatar or tries to insult me by jumping on the bandwaggon of the tried and true NFL practices.

Please.  Just give it a try.  Humor me.  Read my post and tell me where I go wrong.  Try not to bring in strawmen.  Use your own words and enter the debate.

Im guessing that is your last post.

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#77
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:57:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

I am not going to argue with any of you about this but this is my take.
Houston should NOT have gone for two.They went up 27-7, 20 points, in the 3RD QUARTER. If they don't make the conversion they would only be up by 19 pts. This could be reached with TWO TDs and conversions and a FG as opposed to THREE TDs. With a whole quarter to go, Alt surely felt that they would get at least another FG. 

General rule of thumb is to go for one in the first three quarters and possibly fourth if there is a lot of time left.

Lets say that they were only up by 6 and scored with a couple of minutes left in the 3rd, going up by 12. You are saying to go for two? With a whole quarter left???  A FG at this point wouldn't do as much good if you went up by 15 as opposed to 16.

If you are the young man in your avatar  than I have been gambling twice as long as you've been alive. Trust me, Sometimes the coaches make mistakes but this is not one of them.
# Atlanta

My words
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#78
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:58:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

I meant Atlanta in my first post.

Now the Houston game Is not as cut and dry. I do understand your point but there is something to be said about going for one to get within 11 points. I have seen it dozens of times. Down by 11 a team gets to the 10-15 yard line then gets sacked or has a penalty making for a fourth and really long. A missed fourth down if down by 12 is catastrophic. If down by 11 you kick the field goal and still have a shot.

If you somehow score a TD at the end of the game, your team has the momentum. They start believing that they can win the game. Old Mo is a powerful thing.

Just saying

My words
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#79
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:59:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

# Atlanta

My words

OK.

I will stick to my original judgement.  You are a moron.

May you never coach a football game at any level.  I feel bad for even a peewee league that you would be a water boy for.

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#80
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:12:04 PM
  Moooommm, people don't think I a genius!!!!

That's OK Snookums, Would some cookies make it better? Honeybuns?


Get out of here Kitty!!!!!  That's my pot pie!!!!!
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#81
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:14:41 PM
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#82
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:22:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

This is why so many people don't post on Covers.

You have pimply 12 year olds calling people morons, stupid, dumb,etc. I don't know if you have taken reading in your school yet but I'm sure you will one day. What don't YOU understand about my post? You are the genius. I think you need to quit your job at McDonalds and go to an NFL team to sell your groundbreaking ideas. You can possibly be standing beside Belichik or Tomlin with your crystal ball and let them know if their two point conversion is going to work at the end of the game. 

WOW...
I do want to thank you though. I'm home, sick with the flu and you just game me one of those laugh out loud moments. 

Almost 50000 posts???
Do you only comment on your own posts or are you one of those guys that have an opinion on everything on this site? You are the genius after all and I guess we should just thank you for your thoughts (apparently A LOT of them.) Good luck with your NFL career PAL.


i'm with you, i'll admit i'm a little skeptical of this vanzack guy based on the way he looks but what he's saying also kind of makes sense.  maybe we should go find bling and have him break the tie.  have you seen his avatar?
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#83
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:31:12 PM
Phuck it ....Van's correct Falcons almost got torched...
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#84
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:32:06 PM
No, I don't know Bling.  

Just wanted to get into a civilized discussion and he started attacking me. I do understand what he is saying but a lot of it depends on the coach and how much time is left. If Atl had kicked another FG in the fourth quarter none of it would have mattered. IF Hou doesn't make the two pt conversion they would have HAD to go for TWO TDs.

It's just not how it is done.
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#85
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:40:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

No, I don't know Bling.  

Just wanted to get into a civilized discussion and he started attacking me. I do understand what he is saying but a lot of it depends on the coach and how much time is left. If Atl had kicked another FG in the fourth quarter none of it would have mattered. IF Hou doesn't make the two pt conversion they would have HAD to go for TWO TDs.

It's just not how it is done.

"Its just not how it is done".

10 years ago you would have been saying that about letting the other team score too? 

That is not good enough.  Your logic is flawed, and if that is how it is done, their logic is flawed too.

Your statement "IF Hou doesn't make the two pt conversion they would have HAD to go for TWO TDs." is EXACTLY THE REASON YOU GO FOR 2 AFTER THE FIRST TD.  You are stating my position (the correct logic) and then interpreting it incorrectly.

BTW - go back to post 66 and tell me how you wanted to have a civilized discussion and how I attacked you.  Please.

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#86
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:41:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

Phuck it ....Van's correct Falcons almost got torched...


Do you need a big spoon or an oar to stir that pot, Shrimp?

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#87
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:43:38 PM
U know me...No doubt...
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#88
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:43:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

I am not going to argue with any of you about this but this is my take.
Houston should NOT have gone for two.They went up 27-7, 20 points, in the 3RD QUARTER. If they don't make the conversion they would only be up by 19 pts. This could be reached with TWO TDs and conversions and a FG as opposed to THREE TDs. With a whole quarter to go, Alt surely felt that they would get at least another FG. 

General rule of thumb is to go for one in the first three quarters and possibly fourth if there is a lot of time left.

Lets say that they were only up by 6 and scored with a couple of minutes left in the 3rd, going up by 12. You are saying to go for two? With a whole quarter left???  A FG at this point wouldn't do as much good if you went up by 15 as opposed to 16.

If you are the young man in your avatar  than I have been gambling twice as long as you've been alive. Trust me, Sometimes the coaches make mistakes but this is not one of them.
 

Post 66
And...
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#89
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:46:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

"Its just not how it is done".

10 years ago you would have been saying that about letting the other team score too? 

That is not good enough.  Your logic is flawed, and if that is how it is done, their logic is flawed too.

Your statement "IF Hou doesn't make the two pt conversion they would have HAD to go for TWO TDs." is EXACTLY THE REASON YOU GO FOR 2 AFTER THE FIRST TD.  You are stating my position (the correct logic) and then interpreting it incorrectly.

BTW - go back to post 66 and tell me how you wanted to have a civilized discussion and how I attacked you.  Please.


Van, Getting two TDs is way harder than a FG and TD with the two.
At least you still have a shot at the end of the game and with Mo on your side....
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#90
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:47:13 PM

IF Hou doesn't make the two pt conversion they would have HAD to go for TWO TDs.

So great.  You post the exact reason why your argument is flawed.

I think you can now be a water boy for a peewee league.

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#91
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:48:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

U know me...No doubt...

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#92
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:49:20 PM
I don't know how this post got so out of hand.

Just reading the title "Atlanta should have gone for 2 up 26-7"

My opinion, no.

Being up 3 possessions there's no need to make the hard decision to go for 2. Let's just say worse case scenario atlanta recovers a fumble and scores 2, you're now up 26-9, 2 TDs and FG.

27-7 makes it 3 TD's guaranteed.

I don't know what you're not understanding here. The only inclination I have is ... I got nothing, the post doesn't make much sense.
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Posted: 1/15/2013 3:51:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:


Van, Getting two TDs is way harder than a FG and TD with the two.
At least you still have a shot at the end of the game and with Mo on your side....

Sal....

Getting 2 TD's is way harder than a FG and a TD and a 2.  Of course it is.  No argument.

Look - since I like you - Im going to try this a different way.

When you are down by 18, you need EITHER:

A.  2 td's with one 2 point conversion, and a FG.
B.  3 td's with no 2 point conversion.

The way that you propose they go about it is locking in to option A blindly.  What I propose allows you to get choice A or B depending upon which one you need, based on the success of the 2 point coversion AHEAD OF TIME.

With my option or your option - you are trying a 2 point conversion AT SOME POINT.  What you suggest is to try that 2 point conversion when it is do or die - when you have no recourse.  What I suggest is to try it at a point when you can adjust the rest of the game so that it is not do or die.

Under your scenario - if you miss the 2 point conversion YOU LOSE.  Under my scenario - if you miss the 2 point conversion YOU CAN STILL WIN.

Think about it please.

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#94
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:52:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

IF Hou doesn't make the two pt conversion they would have HAD to go for TWO TDs.

So great.  You post the exact reason why your argument is flawed.

I think you can now be a water boy for a peewee league.


Son, you go for one in that case to keep some hope alive. Every gamble looks genius until it doesn't work.

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Posted: 1/15/2013 3:55:30 PM

To keep hope alive?????  What?  So it is more important to have hope for the last minutes of a game than know for sure what you should do and adjust your strategy accordingly?  Come on Sal - you arent one of these faith guys that think you shouldnt do chemo because something good will happen if you just think it will.

Look - this is as simple as I can state it:

You have to go for 2 at some point.  If you wait until the end and you dont make it, YOU LOSE.  If you do it on the first TD and you dont make it, YOU CAN STILL WIN.

 

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#96
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:01:41 PM
what blows my mind, van, is that every joe out there with 50 bucks on the game seems to have a clearer picture of end game strategy than the experts on the sidelines (and in these cases the booth as well).  they shouldn't need to hire a sideline nerd to explain the math to them.  it's their job.  maybe they should be forced to bet a dime on a few years worth of games before getting their coaching positions.  speaking of which, all of this is moot if pete carroll could have heard me screaming "take the points, moron.  you get the ball back first after the half."  and then to watch them go back to the zone after taking the lead?  unreal.
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#97
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:02:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Sal....

Getting 2 TD's is way harder than a FG and a TD and a 2.  Of course it is.  No argument.

Look - since I like you - Im going to try this a different way.

When you are down by 18, you need EITHER:

A.  2 td's with one 2 point conversion, and a FG.
B.  3 td's with no 2 point conversion.

The way that you propose they go about it is locking in to option A blindly.  What I propose allows you to get choice A or B depending upon which one you need, based on the success of the 2 point coversion AHEAD OF TIME.

With my option or your option - you are trying a 2 point conversion AT SOME POINT.  What you suggest is to try that 2 point conversion when it is do or die - when you have no recourse.  What I suggest is to try it at a point when you can adjust the rest of the game so that it is not do or die.

Under your scenario - if you miss the 2 point conversion YOU LOSE.  Under my scenario - if you miss the 2 point conversion YOU CAN STILL WIN.

Think about it please.


I DO GET WHAT YOU ARE SAYING. How much time is left? How is your offense playing? How is your defense playing? Down by 12 points You can realistically get into FG range pretty quickly. Especially in the prevent D. Now one lucky play: hail Mary or pass interference.      A lot easier than TWO TDs.

It's like arguing with my grandkids. Oh....
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#98
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:05:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:


I DO GET WHAT YOU ARE SAYING. How much time is left? How is your offense playing? How is your defense playing? Down by 12 points You can realistically get into FG range pretty quickly. Especially in the prevent D. Now one lucky play: hail Mary or pass interference.      A lot easier than TWO TDs.

It's like arguing with my grandkids. Oh....

11:35 left in the 4th, pretty crappy, pretty crappy.

But that makes no difference really. 

Under your scenario - if you miss the 2 point conversion YOU LOSE. Under my scenario - if you miss the 2 point conversion YOU CAN STILL WIN.

Please dont coach your grandkids football games.  I beg you on behalf of them.

 

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#99
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:06:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skipster:

what blows my mind, van, is that every joe out there with 50 bucks on the game seems to have a clearer picture of end game strategy than the experts on the sidelines (and in these cases the booth as well).  they shouldn't need to hire a sideline nerd to explain the math to them.  it's their job.  maybe they should be forced to bet a dime on a few years worth of games before getting their coaching positions.  speaking of which, all of this is moot if pete carroll could have heard me screaming "take the points, moron.  you get the ball back first after the half."  and then to watch them go back to the zone after taking the lead?  unreal.
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#100
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:11:07 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]

To keep hope alive?????  What?  So it is more important to have hope for the last minutes of a game than know for sure what you should do and adjust your strategy accordingly?  Come on Sal - you arent one of these faith guys that think you shouldnt do chemo because something good will happen if you just think it will.

WHAT THE F#@K ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

Do you even watch pro football? Teams are so evenly matched that in most games Hope And Momentum are what wins the game.

The intangibles.

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