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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Atlanta should have gone for 2 up 26-7 .....
vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#51
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:44:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by touchdownjaysus:

@tonyaharding --- you nailed it on the texans going for 2, but much like the falcons onside kick, it goes largely forgotten because the result of the game didn't change.  Down 12 with the extra point coming you should never never never never go for 2.  That was idiotic, and I was loving it because I had a middle at 10, but still couldn't believe my eyes.   You are dead right... if you miss that, you now need 2 touchdowns.  At 11 you sitll need a touchdown and a field goal.... same as you need down 10.   Crazy.

Meanwhile, Anyone on the boards not saying SF and Baltimore ?

Once again....

WRONG.

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#52
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:59:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Nobody is really talking about it, but the Falcons were very lucky to escape today - but all could have been prevented if they would have gone for 2 up 26-7 with 2:10 left in the 3rd qtr.

Dont think any debate could be made to support the kicking of the EP there vs going for 2.


Thought the exact same thing..at the same time...No ?....

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#53
Posted: 1/14/2013 11:13:23 AM
The onside kick was more egregious than not going for 2. Incredible coaching blunders over the weekend.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#54
Posted: 1/14/2013 11:18:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Well, it is never done but it is the right thing.

You need to make a 2 point conversion at some point.  Going for it on the first TD allows you to know ahead of time if you made it or not, allowing you to know you need 2 more TDs so you can forego kicking a FG.

It lets you know now what you need rather than waiting until later, when it is too late because you have already kicked the FG.

For the purposes of drama, it is better to wait-  but for the purposes of winning the game, they did exactly the right thing.


Thank you-
This is perfectly stated.
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#55
Posted: 1/14/2013 12:10:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by touchdownjaysus:

@tonyaharding --- you nailed it on the texans going for 2, but much like the falcons onside kick, it goes largely forgotten because the result of the game didn't change.  Down 12 with the extra point coming you should never never never never go for 2.  That was idiotic, and I was loving it because I had a middle at 10, but still couldn't believe my eyes.   You are dead right... if you miss that, you now need 2 touchdowns.  At 11 you sitll need a touchdown and a field goal.... same as you need down 10.   Crazy.

Meanwhile, Anyone on the boards not saying SF and Baltimore ?



Down 11 you need a touchdown, a field goal, and a TWO POINT CONVERSION. One you are not sure if you will get. A TWO POINT CONVERSION. Going for it earlier will allow you to know whether or not you can kick a field goal. It is not complicated. If it were a little earlier in the game it could be debatable, but with 5 minutes and so few possessions left you need to know.


Down 18. Let's say you are going to get the ball back 3 times and are going to miss the conversion.

TD, go for it, miss, down 12. Need two touchdowns on final two possessions and you know not to settle for a field goal.
OR
TD, kick extra point. Down 11. Next possession kick field goal instead of going for it on fourth and short since you don't know that you are going to miss the 2 point try. Down 8. Now you lose.
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#56
Posted: 1/14/2013 2:29:07 PM
Thinking about the atlanta game 19 allows for a field goal + 2 TDS w conversions which I think makes going for it a little more questionable but still not wrong. Seattle would need 3 conversions to go their way for that to matter.
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#57
Posted: 1/14/2013 2:36:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Sanchize5Ever:



Down 11 you need a touchdown, a field goal, and a TWO POINT CONVERSION. One you are not sure if you will get. A TWO POINT CONVERSION. Going for it earlier will allow you to know whether or not you can kick a field goal. It is not complicated. If it were a little earlier in the game it could be debatable, but with 5 minutes and so few possessions left you need to know.


Down 18. Let's say you are going to get the ball back 3 times and are going to miss the conversion.

TD, go for it, miss, down 12. Need two touchdowns on final two possessions and you know not to settle for a field goal.
OR
TD, kick extra point. Down 11. Next possession kick field goal instead of going for it on fourth and short since you don't know that you are going to miss the 2 point try. Down 8. Now you lose.

Thanks for trying to explain this.  I still have a feeling they will oppose it with venom - because they dont understand - but I dont have the energy to keep explaining it.

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#58
Posted: 1/14/2013 2:53:40 PM
totally agree about Fox being a pusse comment
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#59
Posted: 1/14/2013 3:15:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

OK - then shouldnt they hire a guy who does nothing but make strategy and time decisions?

I get your point.  People have made it for years.  There is a lot going on with X's and O's, lots of management etc.

How much is a win worth in the NFL?  Surely enough to pay some math whiz to stand next to the coach and tell him when he should go for two or his best time to call timeouts.



Should the Falcons be expecting your resume for "Clock & Strategy Management Engineer" ?


Should have gone for 2, I concur.
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#60
Posted: 1/14/2013 3:22:18 PM

The guy that disagrees with Houston going for 2 when they trailed by 12 is the guy with the brain of a toad. You cannot possibly come up with a reason to debate with this decision. Vanzack and others have this right, and you bozos that oppose are absolutely wrong.

 

Look at it this way, if you're saying that by being down 11 you're only down a FG and a TD...then you're ADMITTING that you're going to succesfully convert the 2 pointer. So if you admit you're already going to make it (in your mind), then who cares if they do it now? If you're saying you might miss the 2 pointer, this being down by 12, then you've just admitted that you, in fact, are NOT down by a TD and a FG if you trail by 11. So there's not an argument to be made against this.

 

Vanzack said it best when he said that, "for the purposes of winning the game, they did the right thing." That is a fact. It is beyond dispute. Why would you not want to find out NOW if you're going to make it or not, this giving you more information to make decisions later? The fact that head coaches and announcers have yet to catch onto this just shows how lacking they are in time and game management.

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#61
Posted: 1/14/2013 3:24:34 PM
By the way, twice I typed "this" instead of "thus" so my typing skills are obviously as bad as the head coaches are at managing a game lol.
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#62
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:47:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Uhhh....

Read my post again.  I think you missed the point.

You have 2 options.  Go for 2 now and know for sure whether you need one TD and one FG, or 2 TDS.

Or go for 2 later and not have the benefit of knowing what you need.

Get it?

INFORMATION IS EVERYTHING!!!!!   

You are buying incredibly valuable info. on the cheap by doing what Hou. did.  

Where do you drudge up the patience to respond to some of these people,,,  it just wears on me reading this fourm now,,,

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#63
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:57:38 AM

^^^^

fourm should be forums,,,    sorry, my mom was a school teacher with a disciplnary streak about spelling, and I still fail her daily. 

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#64
Posted: 1/15/2013 5:59:59 AM

Posted: 1/13/2013 11:36:29 PMJohn Fox is the biggest dope of the week. This freaking puscyy takes a godamn knee!!!! With 30+ seconds left and 2 timeouts in regulation. Foxy looked like Santa Claus out there, freezing his a$$ off, dude must've had a brain freeze for a second ans thought tebow was still the qb. That's why he took the knee.Has to be.

As Posted one of the reasons I loved Balt last week was the the fact that The Coaches are not big game coaches .Foxs playoff record was average at best ,and he has not proven to be a big game coach ever,And DELRIO has never won anything and let his defense and Chump Bailey get burned all day long . But when it came down to the end of the game ,and the 3rd and 7 in OT where they ran the ball and got stopped both plays were totally on MANNING ,First of all he calls his own plays,and or has the power he has had his whole career and could of audible out of those plays if he wanted .That game is totally on Manning and the overated Bronco Def.  

As posted I took ATL-2@120 (bought the half point) No coach is gonna go for the 2pt conversion there ,because at that point they still were dominating the Seahawks no ones taking that risk(they didnt bet the game  we did)There up 20 -0 at half , (letting 2 drives stall with only FGs ,they should of been up 32 or 35)totally dominating the game .Now they know Seattle s gonna come out and score ,which they did ,but then the next posession ATL marches right down the field and counters with another TD 27-7 a 2 pt  conversion would never enter any coaches mind  under those circumstances .You would have to feel after that TD that the game is yours .Which is prob how they felt ,cause they sure let off the pedal and almost cost them the game.  And that last drive by Ryan with 30 sec left in hindsight is the play that is gonna give them the momentum to carry them to the Super bowl  

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#65
Posted: 1/15/2013 6:15:44 AM
 ATL for the most part containned Wilson ,ATL has had sucess with QBs like Wilson and this weeks darling Colin KAP. Remember they  have played that style QB many times this year including Cam Newton another young running QB. I think SF will not be able to breakdown ATL defense the way they did to the Packers. Remember the love SF got on Saturday ,besides being the better team this season,they played a Packer team that wasnt impressive at all with there wildcard win the week before. Falcons played one of the best halfs in football Sunday and with coming back with 30 sec left after blowing  20 point lead ,has Matt RYan feeling that they can win any type of game . Some times teams are just  primed to win and ths year its ATL  .They beat the 49ers this week because there home ,not travling ,better QB  Better Recievers , Def not better but peeking at the right time   ATL wins this 31-24  and Meets the Ravens in the SuperBowl
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#66
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:46:18 PM
I am not going to argue with any of you about this but this is my take.
Houston should NOT have gone for two.They went up 27-7, 20 points, in the 3RD QUARTER. If they don't make the conversion they would only be up by 19 pts. This could be reached with TWO TDs and conversions and a FG as opposed to THREE TDs. With a whole quarter to go, Alt surely felt that they would get at least another FG. 

General rule of thumb is to go for one in the first three quarters and possibly fourth if there is a lot of time left.

Lets say that they were only up by 6 and scored with a couple of minutes left in the 3rd, going up by 12. You are saying to go for two? With a whole quarter left???  A FG at this point wouldn't do as much good if you went up by 15 as opposed to 16.

If you are the young man in your avatar  than I have been gambling twice as long as you've been alive. Trust me, Sometimes the coaches make mistakes but this is not one of them.
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#67
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:48:06 PM
#Atlanta
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#68
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:49:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Nobody is really talking about it, but the Falcons were very lucky to escape today - but all could have been prevented if they would have gone for 2 up 26-7 with 2:10 left in the 3rd qtr.

Dont think any debate could be made to support the kicking of the EP there vs going for 2.



are you serious? this was a HUGE moose! seattle did not cover all game until the last 30 seconds of the game

at all the people thinking that seattle should have rightfully covered. i had atl ml so i can careless about the spread. but to all the seattle backers thinking they should have covered is ridiculous. they did not even cover until 31 seconds left in the game. give me a break with the excuses for the seahawks and excuses for why the falcons are frauds
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#69
Posted: 1/15/2013 1:07:14 PM
I meant Atlanta in my first post.

Now the Houston game Is not as cut and dry. I do understand your point but there is something to be said about going for one to get within 11 points. I have seen it dozens of times. Down by 11 a team gets to the 10-15 yard line then gets sacked or has a penalty making for a fourth and really long. A missed fourth down if down by 12 is catastrophic. If down by 11 you kick the field goal and still have a shot.

If you somehow score a TD at the end of the game, your team has the momentum. They start believing that they can win the game. Old Mo is a powerful thing.

Just saying
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#70
Posted: 1/15/2013 1:19:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NOboy:



are you serious? this was a HUGE moose! seattle did not cover all game until the last 30 seconds of the game

at all the people thinking that seattle should have rightfully covered. i had atl ml so i can careless about the spread. but to all the seattle backers thinking they should have covered is ridiculous. they did not even cover until 31 seconds left in the game. give me a break with the excuses for the seahawks and excuses for why the falcons are frauds

 

That wasn't even the point of contention.......

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Posted: 1/15/2013 1:46:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

I am not going to argue with any of you about this but this is my take.
Houston should NOT have gone for two.They went up 27-7, 20 points, in the 3RD QUARTER. If they don't make the conversion they would only be up by 19 pts. This could be reached with TWO TDs and conversions and a FG as opposed to THREE TDs. With a whole quarter to go, Alt surely felt that they would get at least another FG. 

General rule of thumb is to go for one in the first three quarters and possibly fourth if there is a lot of time left.

Lets say that they were only up by 6 and scored with a couple of minutes left in the 3rd, going up by 12. You are saying to go for two? With a whole quarter left???  A FG at this point wouldn't do as much good if you went up by 15 as opposed to 16.

If you are the young man in your avatar  than I have been gambling twice as long as you've been alive. Trust me, Sometimes the coaches make mistakes but this is not one of them.

So your argument is:

 In the 3rd, dont go for 2, but in the 4th you do.  So the fact that there were 2 mins left in the 3rd qtr dont matter? 

And yes - I am "the young man in my avatar".  That matters?  You have been gambling twice as long as I have been alive?  You are an expert somehow?

Please.  Save it. 

It doesnt matter to you that the ball would have been on the 3/4 yard line for the 2 point conversion after 2 penalties?

Dont be a moron.

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#72
Posted: 1/15/2013 1:46:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NOboy:



are you serious? this was a HUGE moose! seattle did not cover all game until the last 30 seconds of the game

at all the people thinking that seattle should have rightfully covered. i had atl ml so i can careless about the spread. but to all the seattle backers thinking they should have covered is ridiculous. they did not even cover until 31 seconds left in the game. give me a break with the excuses for the seahawks and excuses for why the falcons are frauds

Go post in a thread where someone cares about what you are posting.  Clearly, you read nothing in this one.

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#73
Posted: 1/15/2013 1:49:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

I meant Atlanta in my first post.

Now the Houston game Is not as cut and dry. I do understand your point but there is something to be said about going for one to get within 11 points. I have seen it dozens of times. Down by 11 a team gets to the 10-15 yard line then gets sacked or has a penalty making for a fourth and really long. A missed fourth down if down by 12 is catastrophic. If down by 11 you kick the field goal and still have a shot.

If you somehow score a TD at the end of the game, your team has the momentum. They start believing that they can win the game. Old Mo is a powerful thing.

Just saying

And once again, you miss the point.

If you are down by 18 points, you need to go for 2 once.  You can either do it on the first TD, or on the second TD.

If you go for it on the first TD, YOU KNOW FOR SURE if you need 2 more TD;s, or if you need one TD and one FG.

If you go for it on the second TD, you are stuck if you have already kicked the FG.  You either make it and are tied, or you miss it and you lose.

Wouldnt you think it is an advantage to know ahead of time if that FG is useless or not?

I really dont understand how people dont get this.  Of course you have "seen this dozens of times" - because coaches do this dozens of times - and they do it incorrectly.  Think for yourself.  Try it.

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#74
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:00:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

I meant Atlanta in my first post.

Now the Houston game Is not as cut and dry. I do understand your point but there is something to be said about going for one to get within 11 points. I have seen it dozens of times. Down by 11 a team gets to the 10-15 yard line then gets sacked or has a penalty making for a fourth and really long. A missed fourth down if down by 12 is catastrophic. If down by 11 you kick the field goal and still have a shot.

If you somehow score a TD at the end of the game, your team has the momentum. They start believing that they can win the game. Old Mo is a powerful thing.

Just saying

I tried, but I cant stop with my previous response.  Your post above is so monumentally stupid, I am compelled to explain how dumb you really are.  So here goes.

If you are now down by 11 because you kick the EP when you were down by 18, and you "are sacked at the 10 yard line on 3rd down" - and then kick a FG - THAT FG MIGHT BE USELESS BECAUSE YOU MISS THE 2 POINT CONVERSION!!

It is obvious, that if you are in that situation where you have 4th and 18 at the 18 yard line - you would rather KNOW whether the FG you are about to attempt is useless.  Of course it is easier and more likely to make that FG than get the first down - but the FG might not be of any use to you - and the only way to know that is to go for the 2 point conversion on the 1st TD.

What dont you undertand about this?  If you are the coach, you would prefer the drama of not knowing until the last TD whether that FG is of use to you over knowing ahead of time?  You love drama that much?  Look - its not as sexy to know that the FG is of no use to you because you go for 2 on the first TD - rather than "staying in it" for the fans - but your best chance of winning is knowing ahead of time.

Think about it pal.  I will accept your apology and your apparant lack of ability to not only recognize probability and strategy - but also your lack of ability to recognize genius and avatars that display ninja style.

 

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#75
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:43:42 PM
This is why so many people don't post on Covers.

You have pimply 12 year olds calling people morons, stupid, dumb,etc. I don't know if you have taken reading in your school yet but I'm sure you will one day. What don't YOU understand about my post? You are the genius. I think you need to quit your job at McDonalds and go to an NFL team to sell your groundbreaking ideas. You can possibly be standing beside Belichik or Tomlin with your crystal ball and let them know if their two point conversion is going to work at the end of the game. 

WOW...
I do want to thank you though. I'm home, sick with the flu and you just game me one of those laugh out loud moments. 

Almost 50000 posts???
Do you only comment on your own posts or are you one of those guys that have an opinion on everything on this site? You are the genius after all and I guess we should just thank you for your thoughts (apparently A LOT of them.) Good luck with your NFL career PAL.
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