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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share
AFNfootballnerd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 11/16/2012 9:43:49 AM
The complete numbers break down for NO-Oak game...

NO 15.4% @ Oak -9%

But it's a no play for me because the program also calculates how a team is playing recently against the average baseline and the numbers for those are NO -2% Oak -30.5%

Given those numbers I don't like to play negative % with NO at -2%

So there are two main numbers my program calculates...how a team matches up against another and second is how a team is playing recently...
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#27
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:05:39 PM
Well, the BUF pick came through, and I'm on tampa already, so let's see what happens. Hope you keep posting. If you don't mind, I'd find it interesting if you posted all the % differentials (even when it's a no-play) just to see if anything jumps out when compared w/ the pointspreads and/or results. Thanks again, keep us posted.
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#28
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:31:00 PM
I'd also like to see what all the numbers are for each game, being a bit of a stats nerd. Comparing all the diff trends should take up a nice chunk of time :)
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#29
Posted: 11/16/2012 1:44:08 PM
Nice work! This is definitely a useful tool.
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#30
Posted: 11/16/2012 2:38:29 PM
What do the numbers look like for CIN @ KC I like CIN but I think KC is due for a win and this might be their time after a close loss to the stealers
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#31
Posted: 11/16/2012 7:06:53 PM
Cin 2%@ KC -30%

avg baseline numbers how they are playing now...

Cin -1% KC -35%

Glad u brought this game up because another reason a no play for me is a calculation my program calculates is team consistency...how teams played throughout the pass games of the season....for example...the highest inconsistent team so far is NYG 28% ranked 32 which holds true because they are the most inconsistent team in the nfl to bet on...

I have Cincy 20.5% ranked 29 which is inconsistent...KC 14.5% ranked 22 both inconsistent teams so it seems this game is a cheap shoot as in u don't know what your gonna get with this matchup lol...hope these numbers help with your wager but too inconsistent numbers = no play for me
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#32
Posted: 11/16/2012 7:24:47 PM
Wow just noticed tx to TR's post that Detroit is ranked 2 at 4% consistency this week..and greenbay 14% ranked 21. So greenbay is just below KC in consistency? Wow!

GB 22% @ Det 19%

Consistency Det ranked 2 vs greenbay ranked 22..

With those numbers gonna take Detroit at home +3

Final picks TB-1, Det +3


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#33
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:19:37 AM
BOL

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#34
Posted: 11/18/2012 12:57:19 AM
Nice info Thanks
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#35
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:20:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

breaking down the numbers calculated on leans...

GB 22% @ Detroit at 19%

Interesting numbers with detroit getting +3 at home it looks as if Detroit can hang in a close game with a 2% margin the numbers are close....not gonna play this game but will keep an eye of the results if Detroit covers with such a close % margin it might be a handy trend to follow the program with those numbers

NYJ -20% @ St Louis -4.8%

Both really bad teams with both negatives on the calculations with the books pretty much using their own calculations to come up with the rams -3 at home...basically a crap shoot gonna pass on that garbage fest 

TB 8% @ Carolina -6.8%

TB on the road getting 8% vs a struggling carolina at -6.8% like those numbers with again a small line at TB -1 Gonna play TB -1 for 1 unit 


I'll bite.. sent you a friend req. I was initially leaning TB. I have them projected as at least 3 pt faves.


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#36
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:24:06 AM
Would you mind sending me that system program? I'd like to see what parameters you're basing your figures on.

I could have a couple of things that may help your program out a bit more.


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#37
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:31:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pcz:

Would you mind sending me that system program? I'd like to see what parameters you're basing your figures on.

I could have a couple of things that may help your program out a bit more.




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#38
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:42:18 AM
Are you using a consistency formula calculating efficiency like how points per possession are calculated in college bball? Just curious, I've used similar formulas in the past in ncaab and managed to get about 60-70% success..

Pm me your thoughts and methods if you don't mind
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#39
Posted: 11/18/2012 1:46:56 AM
these kinds of programs are useless, they r going to say kansas city should lose by a million and oakland should lose by a million but in fact those r both bad bets, the only way to handicap is by using your own brain, too many missing factors in a computer program unless somehow you have every single detail of every single game for the past 3 years recorded including how each point was scored, not just the final score, such as defensive touchdowns and so on, that would be a very difficult program to write
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#40
Posted: 11/18/2012 2:48:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SharperThanYou:

these kinds of programs are useless, they r going to say kansas city should lose by a million and oakland should lose by a million but in fact those r both bad bets, the only way to handicap is by using your own brain, too many missing factors in a computer program unless somehow you have every single detail of every single game for the past 3 years recorded including how each point was scored, not just the final score, such as defensive touchdowns and so on, that would be a very difficult program to write


You shouldn't look into this thread then in the first place if you don't believe in it. You really must be a hater if you're not smart enough to comprehend this thread.
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#41
Posted: 11/18/2012 3:16:50 AM
The program records every single play of the NFL...just as if the NFL records every single stat...lines makers use these same programs to factor in their lines...they don't set lines based of Tim tebows game last year as a bronco...why bother even factoring in last seasons games? Try capping the broncos with tebow before and Peyton manning this season...good luck with that...obviously the garbage teams are gonna get bad numbers cuz they are bad teams...that's why I've decided not to play double digit spreads...

The three main stats the program does...

1.records every single play of the team and calculates how well or bad they are playing against the AVG team should play...from QB efficiency, first down conversions, turnovers, pts per game, defensive third down stops, etc..important cuz it gives u an idea how they are playing vs your avg NFL team...

2. it takes those numbers recorded and matches up both teams u are interested on wagering on and calculates what team has better numbers...I love this part as I don't want to look up every single stat on every team to see who has advantage cuz it takes touch numbers crunching and time...

3. consistency...again I don't watch every single game of the season of every single team so I don't know who's consistent...for example a co-worker of mine bet NYG last week and said "wtf giants looked horrible" I told him they are the most inconsistent team in the league...my program had them ranked dead last at 32...program has jaguars ranked 3 at consistency but they are Consistent and being BAD...Conistency is another stat I don't have time to analyze the whole season..comes in handy when factoring or capping a game...

this program cuts down on the number crunching and gives me a better overall idea of how a team is playing and how a team matches up against each other...
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#42
Posted: 11/18/2012 3:27:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

The program records every single play of the NFL...just as if the NFL records every single stat...lines makers use these same programs to factor in their lines...they don't set lines based of Tim tebows game last year as a bronco...why bother even factoring in last seasons games? Try capping the broncos with tebow before and Peyton manning this season...good luck with that...obviously the garbage teams are gonna get bad numbers cuz they are bad teams...that's why I've decided not to play double digit spreads...

The three main stats the program does...

1.records every single play of the team and calculates how well or bad they are playing against the AVG team should play...from QB efficiency, first down conversions, turnovers, pts per game, defensive third down stops, etc..important cuz it gives u an idea how they are playing vs your avg NFL team...

2. it takes those numbers recorded and matches up both teams u are interested on wagering on and calculates what team has better numbers...I love this part as I don't want to look up every single stat on every team to see who has advantage cuz it takes touch numbers crunching and time...

3. consistency...again I don't watch every single game of the season of every single team so I don't know who's consistent...for example a co-worker of mine bet NYG last week and said "wtf giants looked horrible" I told him they are the most inconsistent team in the league...my program had them ranked dead last at 32...program has jaguars ranked 3 at consistency but they are Consistent and being BAD...Conistency is another stat I don't have time to analyze the whole season..comes in handy when factoring or capping a game...

this program cuts down on the number crunching and gives me a better overall idea of how a team is playing and how a team matches up against each other...

Interesting and very complex. As i stated before, i've fiddled with #s in bball but i can't imagine how much you've done with football. From a game standpoint, there's much to consider. 


Credit to you for doing this and sharing the information
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#43
Posted: 11/18/2012 3:53:20 AM
Sounds interesting, I will be having a tickle on these picks...

Thanks for sharing BOL!
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#44
Posted: 11/18/2012 4:36:38 AM
Guys...I've been using this site for years.  What many have forgotten is that we are all on this to help each other beat the odds...not to bash each other.  Any help anyone can provide is always welcome and should be treated as such. 

AFNfootballnerd...keep the info coming.  If anyone wants it, they can use it.  If they don't like the tips, they can go somewhere else.


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#45
Posted: 11/18/2012 4:57:52 AM
I am not a big fan of systems but this one sounds really interesting and I look forward to keeping up with this and seeing how it pans out. Thank you for sharing with us. At least you back up your system with an explanation and support it with statistical data unlike many on here that just throws out a random system. GL today and look forward to discussing this with you. 
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#46
Posted: 11/18/2012 6:25:33 AM
Is there any way you could run the numbers for the Denver game?
Also if the system shows high -% on defense wouldn't that make for plays on the unders?

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#47
Posted: 11/18/2012 6:43:23 AM
SD -7.5% @ Denver 19.5

How they are playing recently against average...

SD -11% Denver 42% Denver is the highest at ranked against avg..they are simply playing the best right now...

Consistency...

SD 7.5% ranked 9 Denver 8.3% ranked 11 so two similar teams close to each other in consistency...

but tread lightly as I noticed a trend where really high percentages don't cover especially if its a double digit spread...line sitting at 7 which again high percentage numbers seem to not cover...will see how this pans out and take notes
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#48
Posted: 11/18/2012 8:57:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ive created a program last year that records every play on every team on a weekly basis...the numbers are then adjusted to the league average and calculated to give a percentage of who is playing well recently, rather than the overall season....

pretty basic right? anybody can watch football and see whos hot and whos not currently....but, the program also records every defensive play...fumbles, interceptions, sacks, defensive scores etc....for example the highest percentage defense my program ranked the bears last week at -32%. If u watched the bears last week they scored alot on defense. The program recorded all the defensive plays and calculated it to -32% which was the highest of all the defensive teams last week... The Negative % on defense is a good thing and on offense obviously u want a positive %

Based off the program we can tell its recording every play accurately on defense as well as offense but this is where i place wagers with more confidence....the calculations on offense is adjusted based of strength of the opponent...

For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.

So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at  -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight...

My monday night numbers have calculated Pitt offense at 7% vs KC at -29% which ill be wagering on Pitt -12.5

Not claiming this program is undefeated use money management


ANOTHER D AZZ WITH A COMPUTER !!
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#49
Posted: 11/18/2012 9:01:59 AM
THE ONLY TIME YOU person HAVE SEEN A FOOTBALL IS WHEN YOU PULLED IT OUT OF YOUR AZZ WHEN THE RESIDENT BULLY PUT IT THERE
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#50
Posted: 11/18/2012 9:22:29 AM
I don't understand why you're outputting this model in percentages.  For a guy that talks the talk about statistical analysis, this makes little sense mathematically.  Can you elaborate as to what these percentages represent?  What are they in reference to?
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